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Trinidad PM warns of hard times for energy-dependent economy

January 5, 2016 Webmaster

PORT OF SPAIN, Trinidad (AP) — Trinidad and Tobago’s leader has warned the Caribbean nation that it will have to adjust to making do with less amid major declines in energy revenue and declining production of natural gas and oil.

In a late Tuesday address, Prime Minister Keith Rowley said the twin-island nation must make serious adjustments if it is to avoid the kind of economic contractions it suffered during a 1980s oil bust.

He says the country could face the prospect of entering into a future loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund if it doesn’t make adjustments.

Rowley says US$1.5 billion will be taken from a stabilisation fund over the next two years. Meanwhile, the government might also explore for natural gas with Venezuela in an offshore field that straddles the two nations’ territories.

Jamaica Observer

Alternative Energy Climate Change Government News Oil

No cause to celebrate Paris climate agreement

December 22, 2015 Webmaster

Small island states lost out to their larger, more industrialised seniors at COP21.

The results of the climate change conference in Paris (COP21) give no reason for small island states to cheer. The agreement reflects many promises and little action.

The one item of concrete action is merely an undertaking to evaluate carbon emissions every five years — and even that has no teeth.

What is not in the agreement is a firm, legally binding commitment to limit average global temperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Also, not in the agreement is a legally binding commitment to provide developing countries with the funds needed to adapt to, and mitigate against the effects of climate change.

There isn’t even a commitment to a fund, in the sum of US$100 billion a year, that was frequently touted before the conference began.

Once again, the industrialised nations of the world — the worst polluters — took advantage of the weakness of the smallest countries of the world, which are the least polluters and the biggest victims of climate change.

To their credit, though, through the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), representatives of small states did put up a good showing in Paris. Armed with the latest statistics and bolstered by a structured expert report released by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, they argued for the containment of global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, showing that, at 2 degrees, destruction would be widespread and irreversible. But, in the end, despite all the hoopla, applause and celebration, small states lost.

Representatives of AOSIS countries might have been flattered by a brief visit to them by US President Barack Obama, when he declared: “These nations are not the most populous nations, they don’t have big armies, they have a right to dignity and sense of place.” But, while President Obama was undoubtedly sincere in what he said, he also knew, even as he was saying it, that he could not deliver ratification by the US Congress of any agreement that limited carbon emissions or bound the US legally to warming no higher than 1.5 degrees Celsius.

So, the world has a so-called agreement, still to be ratified by the 196 participating countries, that only expresses an objective to limit global warming to “well below two degrees above pre-industrial levels”. The goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius, as described by Amber Rudd, the British minister for energy and climate change, is merely “aspirational”. In making her statement that the target of 1.5 degrees is aspirational, the minister was sending a clear signal to the British industrial world that driving down carbon emissions from fossil fuels is not an immediate objective and therefore will not affect their business.

In truth, the climate change action plans submitted by 188 countries would lead to a temperature rise as high as 2.7 degrees Celsius. And, if that is not bad enough, the signatories to the Paris agreement are under no legal obligation even to meet that objective; they are legally free to enlarge carbon emissions further. So, no cause for small island states to celebrate over that one, and profound reason for them to worry.

At three degrees, the size of islands will shrink, productive areas will be under water, people will have to move habitats inland and many will be forced to migrate, legally and illegally. We have to hope that all the scientists who predict this scenario are wrong.

On the money side, the developed countries declined to insert into the Paris agreement their often-made oral commitments to transfer funds to poorer countries in order to help them adapt. Yet, all the studies show that even the US$100 billion a year that was promised would not be enough to help developing countries build up a power system quickly or cheaply enough on renewable energy sources rather than coal or oil. Incidentally, even if the US$100 billion a year fund was achieved, access to it by small states in the Caribbean would be long and arduous, particularly if the criterion of “per capita” income continues to be applied as it is now by international financial institutions. The portion available to the Caribbean region would be a small fraction of the total sum.

Some may argue that there are two aspects of the Paris agreement that are beneficial to small states, therefore, attention should be paid to them. The participating countries recognised “the importance of averting, minimising and addressing loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change, including weather events and slow onset events”. But, liability is completely ignored because it was opposed by the polluting industrialised countries. Recognition of a problem is far removed from committing to action to cure it.

Then there is the single binding legal requirement in the agreement. Every country is now required to come back every five years with new targets for reducing their carbon emissions. But there is no sanction if they fail to meet their previous commitment, and no sanction if they simply carry on business as usual.

COP21 in Paris may have been a triumph for some nations, but no self-respecting small island State should claim any satisfaction.

That is why each small State, individually and within the many organisations in which they are members — including AOSIS, the Commonwealth, La Francophonie, the Organization of American States and others — must now redouble their efforts to work on the developed country governments, but also to move beyond them to the conscience of the people of the industrialised world.

This is about survival and development — two defining challenges of this century for small states. It is the work of everyone; governments, businesses and civil society, all are involved and all could be consumed.

Jamaica Observer

Alternative Energy Climate Change Crude Oil Electricity Energy Saving Government News Solar Energy

What Just Happened in Solar Is a Bigger Deal Than Oil Exports

December 21, 2015 Webmaster

The clean-energy boom is about to be transformed. In a surprise move, U.S. lawmakers agreed to extend tax credits for solar and wind for another five years. This will give an unprecedented boost to the industry and change the course of deployment in the U.S.

The extension will add an extra 20 gigawatts of solar power—more than every panel ever installed in the U.S. prior to 2015, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). The U.S. was already one of the world’s biggest clean-energy investors. This deal is like adding another America of solar power into the mix.

The wind credit will contribute another 19 gigawatts over five years. Combined, the extensions will spur more than $73 billion of investment and supply enough electricity to power 8 million U.S. homes, according to BNEF.

“This is massive,” said Ethan Zindler, head of U.S. policy analysis at BNEF. In the short term, the deal will speed up the shift from fossil fuels more than the global climate deal struck this month in Paris and more than Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan that regulates coal plants, Zindler said.

Data Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

This is exactly the sort of bridge the industry needed. The costs of installing wind and solar power have dropped precipitously—by more than 90 percent since the original tax credits took effect—but in most places coal and natural gas are still cheaper than unsubsidized renewables. By the time the new tax credit expires, solar and wind will be the cheapest forms of new electricity in many states across the U.S.

The tax credits, valued at about $25 billion over five years, will drive $38 billion of investment in solar and $35 billion in wind through 2021, according to BNEF. The scale of the new projects will help push costs down further and will stimulate new investment that lasts beyond the extension of the credits.

Few people in the industry expected a five-year extension. Stocks soared. SolarCity, the biggest rooftop installer, surged 34 percent yesterday. SunEdison, the largest renewable-energy developer, climbed 25 percent, and panelmaker SunPower increased 14 percent.

Congress is expected to vote by the end of this week on the tax credits as part of a broader budget deal that also lifts the 40-year-old ban on U.S. oil exports. Oil producers have lobbied for years to lift the ban, but it isn’t likely to significantly affect either consumption of oil or deployment of renewables. Leaders from both parties reached an agreement on the bill late Tuesday.

The 30 percent solar tax credit was set to expire next year and will now extend through 2019 before tapering to 10 percent in 2022. The wind credit had expired at the end of 2014, and the extension will be retroactively applied from the start of 2015 through 2019, declining in value each year.

Wind power has had an especially tumultuous relationship with U.S. lawmakers, who have kept the industry’s credits alive through a disruptive ping-pong game of short-term extensions every year or two. “You open manufacturing plants and then you close them. And then you open them and you close them,” BNEF’s Zindler said. “It’s economically inefficient. This will give them a good five-year line of sight on what the market will look like, and that’s really important.”

Bloomberg

Alternative Energy Climate Change Crude Oil Electricity Energy Saving Government News Oil Solar Energy

Congress Passes Tax Credits for Solar and Wind: ‘Sausage-Making at Its Most Intense’

December 18, 2015 Webmaster

The biggest federal policy development of the year for renewables plays out on Congress’ last day of work in 2015.

Lawmakers in the House and Senate passed a spending package today that includes multi-year extensions of solar and wind tax credits, plus one-year extensions for a range of other renewable energy technologies.

The pair of bills, which included tax extenders and $1.1 trillion in funding to keep the government running for the next year, passed hours before lawmakers adjourned for the holidays.

“May the force be with you,” said Senator Dianne Feinstein, urging her fellow Senators to vote in favor of the package shortly after the House approved the bills.

The force was certainly with renewables.

Under the legislation, the 30 percent Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for solar will be extended for another three years. It will then ramp down incrementally through 2021, and remain at 10 percent permanently beginning in 2022.

The 2.3-cent Production Tax Credit (PTC) for wind will also be extended through next year. Projects that begin construction in 2017 will see a 20 percent reduction in the incentive. The PTC will then drop 20 percent each year through 2020.

Also included were geothermal, landfill gas, marine energy and incremental hydro, which will each get a one-year PTC extension. Those technologies will also qualify for a 30 percent ITC, if developers choose. In addition, the bill expanded grants for energy and water efficiency.

Business groups and analysts say the extensions will support tens of billions of dollars in new investment and hundreds of thousands of new jobs throughout the U.S.

“There’s no way to overstate this — the extension of the solar ITC is the most important policy development for U.S. solar in almost a decade,” said MJ Shiao, GTM’s director of solar research.

According to GTM Research, the ITC extension will help spur nearly 100 cumulative gigawatts of solar installations by 2020, resulting in $130 billion in total investment. More than $40 billion of investment will be “directly attributable to the passage of the extension,” said Shiao.

The American Wind Energy Association expects similar growth. The group did not issue precise figures, but said the PTC extension would support tens of gigawatts of new wind projects through 2020.

The legislation also lifts a 40-year ban on exports of crude oil produced in the U.S. In exchange for lifting the ban, Democrats pushed for multi-year extensions of renewable energy tax credits and demanded that Republicans strip out any riders that would weaken environmental laws.

Both sides got what they wanted.

However, Pelosi publicly worried yesterday that she didn’t have enough votes to support the bill. Many Democrats expressed concern about the oil export ban tradeoff, saying it would increase subsidies to fossil fuels and boost carbon emissions.

Congressional leaders and the White House lobbied hard to convince the Democratic base that the bill would be a win for the environment.

“While lifting the oil export ban remains atrocious policy, the wind and solar tax credits in the Omnibus will eliminate around 10 times more carbon pollution than the exports of oil will add,” wrote Pelosi in a letter to lawmakers.

Katherine Hamilton, a partner with 38 North Solutions, called the bill “sausage-making at its most intense.”

“The product should be palatable for most parties in clean energy. Extensions for renewables and efficiency tax credits were key sweeteners. In addition, clean energy R&D funding, land and water conservation funds, and clean energy funds were included in the deal,” she said.

Other independent analysts found that the deal would be a net positive for the climate. Although emissions would increase slightly because of increased drilling activity, they would be easily offset by increasing renewable energy development and decreased coal consumption.

“Our bottom line: Extension of the tax credits will do far more to reduce carbon dioxide emissions over the next five years than lifting the export ban will do to increase them. While this post offers no judgment of the budget deal as a whole, the deal, if passed, looks like a win for climate,” wrote Council on Foreign Relations fellows Michael Levi and Varun Sivaram.

The tax credit extensions cap a big month for renewable energy policy.

In early December, world leaders agreed to a framework for lowering global greenhouse gas emissions — a deal that will leverage hundreds of billions of dollars in private investment for clean technologies.

And earlier this week, California regulators issued a new proposal on net metering that would preserve the retail rate paid to rooftop solar systems. The new rules — combined with the continued federal tax credit — will ensure strong activity in the top solar state.

National groups will now likely reset their sights on local battles around the U.S., said Hamilton.

“The renewable energy industries can turn their focus to state and local policies, siting and permitting issues, and compliance strategies for the Clean Power Plan,” she said.

President Obama is expected to sign the bill into law today.

Greentech Media

Crude Oil Government News Oil

Petrojam increases non-Venezuelan imports of crude oil

December 17, 2015 Webmaster

Petrojam, the government of Jamaica and Venezuela-owned refinery in Kingston, indicated on Monday that shipments of crude oil crude from Venezuela have increased somewhat, growing from an average 313,886 barrels imported per shipment between January 1 and December 1, 2014, to 344, 000 barrels per shipment this year.

For the 2014 period, 19 shipments were accepted compared to 18 shipments in 2015.

At the same time, however, the company shows that imports from non-Venezuelan sources have also increased over the period.

Petrojam said Monday that imports from source countries outside of Venezuela and including Mexico for 2015 covered five shipments averaging 323, 000 barrels each.

This compared to three shipments averaging 310,000 barrels in 2014 and in 2013 three shipments averaging 348,000 barrels.

The data on Venezuelan crude imports nevertheless runs counter to assessments made by Barclays Bank which says export of crude to PetroCaribe signatories in the region and Cuba had been cut significantly, analysis which has been widely recycled following last week’s congressional victory by the opposition party in Venezuela.

The repetition has accompanied the position that Venezuela might change the arrangement under which 18 Caribbean countries pay into its purses about half of the cash value of oil imports, then remit the rest over 25 years as a loan repayment at one per cent interest charge.

The report said that shipments to the Dominican Republic and Jamaica, which account for about half of the programme, have dropped 56 per cent and 74 per cent compared to 2012.

But Petrojam indicated by way of data that for Jamaica, at least for the last three years, supply from Venezuela has remained consistent in the main.

Andrew Baker, writing for BNamericas online on December 8, and citing new BNamericas Intelligence Series report said oil subsidies to Caribbean neighbours through the PetroCaribe initiative have cost the country US$50bn over the last decade.

He repeated the claim that “NicolÃ¡s Maduro, has quietly halved Petrocaribe shipments to about 200,000b/d from 400,000b/d in an effort to slow the bleeding, while continuing to publicly laud the programme.”

Petrojam, while indicating that it is now lifting more crude from other sources outside of Venezuela, showed that supplies have been consistent since January 2013.

Jamaica Observer

Alternative Energy Climate Change Crude Oil Government News Oil Solar Energy

New Climate Deal A Signal To Private Sector

December 16, 2015 Webmaster

Khan … I would say to the private sector, look at investing in renewable energy and energy efficiency.

The new global climate deal, reached after two weeks of intense negotiations, is a signal to the private sector, local and international, of the need to reassess current investment flows.

Jamaican negotiator Dr Orville Grey said the private sector will be critical, given the stated goal of the new deal of “holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 28C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.58C above pre-industrial levels, recognising that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change”.

“The private sector will at some point have to take the lead because the technologies that are likely to take us to carbon neutrality will likely come from the private sector and not the public sector, at least as it relates to technology,” Grey, coordinator for adaptation for the Alliance of Small Island States during the negotiations, told The Gleaner.

If the world is to meet the ‘well-below-two’ target, it will require a significant shift in the current high levels of consumption of fossil fuels, including coal and oil, towards renewables such as solar and wind.

Colonel Oral Khan, chief technical director in the Ministry of Water, Land, Environment, and Climate Change and himself a member of the Jamaica delegation to the talks, was in full agreement.

“The private sector is encouraged under this agreement to support the mobilisation of finance to support adaptation and mitigation,” he said.

On Jamaica’s private sector, Khan said: “The State has submitted its intended nationally determined contribution commitment to [reducing greenhouse gas emissions] to the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) Secretariat. Our commitment is consistent with the goal of our National Energy Policy. I would say to the private sector, look at investing in renewable energy and energy efficiency. In time, I hope that we will see more entities entering into public-private partnerships.”

A Historic Turning Point

Neither Grey nor Khan is alone in their thinking; international leaders in business have echoed their sentiments.

“The business case for eliminating greenhouse gases by 2050 is irrefutable. Indeed, solving climate change presents the greatest economic and social development opportunity of our time,” said Sir Richard Branson, founder of the Virgin Group, in a release to the media on Saturday.

“The new climate agreement is a historic turning point. Now business can and must innovate to lead the transition to a clean economy. Together, it is our duty as human beings, responsible citizens and business leaders to protect the environment. A transition to a clean and green economy will lift millions out of poverty, and ensure the planet’s health for generations to come,” he added.

Arianna Huffington, president and editor-in-chief of the Huffington Post, mirrored his comments.

“This is truly a turning point in human history. We now have the chance to advance the well-being of people everywhere, while creating millions of new jobs and ending our reliance on fossil fuels,” she said in the same release.

“This will help us build a safer, more peaceful world for all. This is exactly what business needs in order to thrive in the long run,” added Huffington.

The Gleaner

Crude Oil News Oil

Oil prices linger near seven-year lows

December 9, 2015 Webmaster

SINGAPORE, Singapore (AFP) — Oil prices hovered near their lowest in almost seven years in Asia yesterday, ahead of the release of US crude inventories and expectations of an increase in US interest rates.

The decision by the (OPEC) oil producers grouping last week to maintain its lofty production levels continues to weigh on a market already awash with supplies as traders fix their sights on other developments that could influence prices.

US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for January delivery was up 16 cents at US$37.81 and Brent crude for January was trading 26 cents higher at US$40.99.

WTI fell 5.8 per cent to US$37.65 in New York and Brent tumbled 5.3 per cent to US$40.73 in London yesterday, their lowest levels since February 2009.

Analysts said yesterday’s slight rebound reflected some bargain-hunting ahead of the release on Wednesday of US commercial crude stockpiles, which will help gauge demand in the world’s top oil consumer.

A Bloomberg News survey estimated inventories probably rose for an 11th week, indicating softer demand.

Traders are also closely watching a meeting of the US central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) next week amid expectations members will announce the first interest-rate hike in over nine years.

An interest-rate increase typically boosts the dollar, which would make dollar-priced oil more expensive to holders of weaker currencies. That usually leads to lower demand and softer prices.

“We expect the FOMC to begin the process of adjusting rates at its meeting… but we think only a gradual and limited adjustment of short-term interest rates will be needed to meet the FOMC’s macroeconomic objectives,” Nomura Securities said in a market commentary.

Oil prices have plunged from peaks above US$100 a barrel in June last year, largely due to the supply glut.

OPEC countries are currently producing an estimated 32 million barrels per day, above the group’s prior 30 million barrel target.

Jamaica Observer

Electricity Government JPS News Oil

OPEC Keeps Oil Production At Current High Level

December 7, 2015 Webmaster

Nigeria’s Minister of State for petroleum resources and President of the OPEC conference Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu (left), and OPEC’s secretary general Abdalla Salem El-Badri of Libya attend a news conference after a meeting of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, at their headquarters in Vienna, Austria, Friday, December 4, 2015.

OPEC nations decided on Friday to keep producing oil at their current high levels, effectively acknowledging their inability to push up crude prices.

An attempt to nudge the cost of oil higher would have involved lowering output. Instead, the organisation’s endorsement of present output, which is more than 1.5 million barrels a day above the formal ceiling of 30 million barrels, is likely to push the price of oil down further.

The ministers of the Organis-ation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries appeared to have little choice. Major producing nations in the cartel were opposed to reducing output. Instead, OPEC is poised to produce more oil.

Iran, which once pumped around four million barrels a day and is now down to about half that, is preparing to come back fully on line once it sheds nuclear-related sanctions in a few months.

Senior oil official Amir Hossein Zamaninia said last week Iran hopes to bring an extra 500,000 barrels on the market by early next year. He said he hopes the extra output will be accommodated within OPEC’s formal ceiling of 30 million barrels a day.

Arriving for Friday’s meeting, Iranian oil minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said Iran is ready to discuss a ceiling for its production but only after his country makes a “full return to the market.”

Iraq is also resurgent. The country has seen the fastest rise in crude production in the world this year. It was pumping more than 4 million barrels a day last month and was responsible for last month’s biggest monthly rise in output among all OPEC countries.

And the ministers agreed to readmit past member Indonesia, to expand their ranks to 13. While that country’s production goes mostly for domestic consumption, that move could also add some to the total amount of OPEC barrels on sale.

A final statement on the meeting was unusual in not mentioning any decision on production ceilings. But conference president Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu told reporters that there was agreement to maintain “current actual production”, which is well above the formal ceiling set at 30 million barrels a day.

Friday’s news pushed oil prices down, with the US benchmark rate sliding 2.7 per cent on the day to US$39.99.

The decision effectively leaves it up to individual members how much crude to pump and was a strong signal of OPEC’s eroding ability to act as a group in efforts to influence supply, demand and prices.

Kachikwu acknowledged as much, telling reporters asking about Iran’s return: “At the end of the day every country has a sovereign right to bring to the marketplace its resources.”

“The logic is simple,” he said, of OPEC’s present clout in a market where non-members such as Russia and U.S. shale producers play an increasingly large role. “We are only 35 per cent of the producers and there are still 65 per cent out there.”

Some OPEC members are producing at their limit and like at previous meetings, the pressure was on swing-producer Saudi Arabia, which accounts for about a third of OPEC’s output, to cut back. But the desert kingdom remained opposed.

The Saudis already resisted cutbacks a year ago, a strategy calculated to put higher-cost outside competitors like United States shale oil producers out of business. The hope was that would eventually lead to a drop in supply and a rebound in prices.

That plan clearly hasn’t worked, with benchmark US crude’s value falling by more than 40 per cent over the past year and now hovering around the US$40 mark per barrel.

Cushioned by past profits on oil, the Saudis can hold out, even if production costs exceed sale revenues. Not so much some others.

Kachikwu, the conference president who also represented Nigeria at the meeting, acknowledged that continued low prices will hurt his country.

“There will be pain,” he said.

The Gleaner

Alternative Energy Electricity Jobs JPS LNG News Oil

Abengoa Says Old Harbour Project Will Employ Hundreds

December 2, 2015 Webmaster

The oil-fired JPS power plant in Old Harbour Bay, St Catherine is to be converted to LNG.

Spanish firm Abengoa SA has revealed the value of the upgrade and employment prospects for the 190MW power plant project amid pre-bankruptcy filings in its home market.

“The contract for the plant, which will be powered by natural gas and cooled by seawater, is worth more than US$200 million,” said Abengoa in a release.

The engineering and renewable energy firm was selected as preferred bidder by Jamaica Public Service Company (JPS), and the parties are in the process of finalising the contract for the LNG-fired power plant. JPS has said the full project cost would be closer to US$300 million.

Abengoa has about four months in which to secure deals with its creditors and restructure its debts if it is to escape full bankruptcy. JPS has said it is not ready to give up on its preferred bidder just yet, but is monitoring the situation.

Abengoa said it will be responsible for the design, engineering and construction work of the plant that will replace an existing fuel-oil facility and is expected to “create between 300 and 500 jobs during the construction phase”.

JPS wants to decommission the existing fuel-oil plant and move to a natural gas facility to create a cleaner, efficient and more reliable source of power, added Abengoa.

The more than 40-year-old Old Harbour plant remains one of the least energy efficient in the island and its upgrade would form part of the Jamaican Government’s drive to increase cleaner forms of fuel. Jamaica aims to increase renewable energy reliance to 20 per cent of the energy output within the medium term.

SEAWATER COOLING SYSTEM

“The plant will use a seawater cooling system that returns the warm water without adversely impacting the environment. Abengoa’s design will use the existing infrastructure as much as possible, requiring less power and improving the overall output of the plant,” said the Spanish firm in late November, adding that the project would extend Abengoa’s experience in turnkey combined cycle projects to the Jamaican market.

The company informed that it filed for insolvency protection on November 25 before the Mercantile Courts of Seville. The company also indicated that it would continue negotiations with its creditors with the objective of reaching an agreement that ensures the company’s financial viability, “under the protection of Article 5 of the Spanish Insolvency Law”.

The company recorded a €194 million net loss attributable to its parent over nine months ending September 2015 on revenues of €4.87 billion. It holds €6.2 billion in total debt while its earnings before interest tax and amortisation totalled €1.3 billion or 4.5 times net leverage.

Abengoa’s other major combined-cycle projects include the 640MW plant in Centro Morelos, Mexico, and the 440MW combined cycle plant in Portland, Oregon, United States, currently under construction. More recently, Abengoa was awarded two combined cycle plants in Mexico – Nuevo Pemex 680MW, and Norte III, 924MW.

The Gleaner

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As prices fall… BOJ predicts oil price rise in early 2016

November 25, 2015 Webmaster

WEST Texas intermediate benchmark pricing for crude was a low of US$42.63 per barrel yesterday and Wall Street analysts continue to predict a further slump into the new year. But the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) is convinced otherwise.

The bank said in its latest quarterly monetary policy report (QMPR) that prices of international commodities, particularly crude oil, are projected to reflect some modest increases, starting in the December 2015 quarter, contributing to an increase in domestic inflation over the near term; a consequence of gradual improvement in global demand conditions as well as a reduction in shale production by the United States of America.

The BOJ indicates that it expects inflation to pick up in both the December 2015 and March 2016 quarters to end fiscal FY2015/16 within the target range of 5.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent, a forecast mainly based on a projected surge in food and oil prices.

Price declines in electricity and fuel resulted in deflation in energy and transport for the September 2015 quarter, largely reflecting the impact of the reduction in crude oil prices.

Headline inflation at the end of the September quarter fell to 1.8 per cent compared to 4.4 per cent at the end of the preceding quarter.

“The reduction largely reflected declines in the cost associated with energy and transport, while agriculture and processed foods prices increased at a slower pace,” the BOJ stated.

However, the BOJ thinks oil price increases will change the trajectory. It is the bank’s assessment that there will be an uptick in the price of crude oil in the last quarter of the fiscal year.

Additionally, year-end inflation will also be affected by prices of domestic agricultural commodities which the bank expects to increase in December due to the recent dry conditions.

Meanwhile, the bank is also predicting that inflation from agricultural commodities will be reduced in the latter part of the December 2015 quarter as drought conditions improve with concurrent price reversals in the March 2016 quarter.

Jamaica Observer

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