Demand for rooftop solar systems across Europe has surged since the start of the Iran war, as households rush to shield themselves from soaring power prices triggered by the worst global energy disruption in history.

The ​conflict has pushed oil, gas and electricity prices sharply higher, hitting companies and households alike and accelerating efforts to find cheaper alternatives and reduce exposure to volatile energy ‌markets.

Solar is among those options, with demand from homeowners more than doubling for some industry players since the war began in late February, according to interviews with more than half a dozen energy equipment wholesalers and renewable utilities in Germany, Britain and the Netherlands.

It’s a timely boost for a technology that accounts for about a third of Europe’s total power capacity, but saw the pace of new installations dip last year for the first time in ​nearly a decade. Industry advocates argue Europe still needs to do far more to cut its reliance on imported oil and gas.

“The war has merely exposed the problem that has ​existed all along: energy dependency,” said Janik Nolden, co-founder of German privately owned solar equipment wholesaler Solarhandel24, adding European governments had been “walking into a ⁠trap”.

‘THIS IS ABOUT EUROPEAN RESILIENCE’

Solarhandel24 said net sales more than tripled in March to nearly 70 million euros ($82 million) from a year earlier, and are expected to triple again this month to ​as much as 60 million euros. The company plans to expand its workforce by about 85 people, roughly a third, to cope with demand.

To secure supply, Solarhandel24 has stocked up around half a ​million solar panels in recent weeks – a costly decision, Nolden said, but one he sees as worthwhile given the potential for net sales to rise to around 400 million euros in 2026 from about 250 million euros last year.

Germany’s Enpal is seeing a similar trend. The energy firm said orders rose 30% year-on-year in March to 130 million euros, while April was on track for a 33% increase to about 120 million euros, driven by rooftop ​solar installations.

“This is about European resilience,” said Enpal CEO and founder Mario Kohle. “We are seeing this trend in the defence sector too. Just as Europe must be able to defend itself, we must ​be able to supply our own energy.”

The financial figures from Solarhandel24 and Enpal have not been previously reported.

While aggregated installation data for Europe are not yet available, industry associations in Germany and the Netherlands have confirmed ‌a pickup ⁠in demand since the war began.

Executives say homeowners are increasingly opting for full systems combining solar panels – nearly 90% of which are supplied by China – with batteries and electric-vehicle wallboxes, allowing surplus power to be stored and used later.

That trend is also lifting demand for energy storage technologies, which Holland Solar’s Wijnand van Hooff says is seeing demand increases of 40%-50%.

“This cannot be explained by purely seasonal factors,” said Filip Thon of E.ON

Europe’s largest energy network operator, which also sells rooftop solar systems. Customer requests, he said, have nearly doubled year-on-year.

A STRUCTURAL SHIFT?

Some executives also point to upcoming changes ​to Germany’s renewable energy law as an additional ​driver of demand for rooftop installations, which ⁠typically cost between 10,000 and 20,000 euros for an average family home.

The war-driven surge comes after the pace of new European solar installations slowed

 in 2025, according to industry lobby SolarPower Europe, with weak residential demand a key factor following the phase-out of support schemes.

Shaes in SMA solar, the world’s third-largest ​solar inverter maker and one of the few remaining European equipment producers, have risen about 50% since the war began. The company has ​also reported an uptick in ⁠demand.

“We view the spike in demand as a structural shift that current geopolitical events are accelerating, not creating,” said Ed Janvrin, who heads the solar and heating business at Britain’s OVO Energy, adding April sales in the division were roughly 10 times higher than a year earlier.

Chinese solar manufacturers, however, say any war-related boost in global demand is unlikely to significantly ease the sector’s overcapacity, with China alone having enough ⁠manufacturing capacity to ​meet this year’s expected global demand nearly twice over.

Even so, the surge highlights how geopolitical shocks can rapidly reprice ​the value of renewables, said Jannik Schall, co-founder of German renewables firm 1Komma5Grad, noting that solar demand during the 2022 energy crisis had been even stronger.

“The recurring energy crises prove the renewables sector right.”

Reuters

By Deidre Wedderburn (deidre@solarbuzzjamaica.com)

Client Relations Manager, Solar Buzz Jamaica 

Focused on building long-term partnerships and delivering a high-quality client experience

 

In periods of global stability, energy decisions are often guided by convenience, incremental savings, or long-term environmental consideration. 

Moments defined by geopolitical tension, supply chain disruption, and rising inflationary pressures elevate energy choices into matters of financial strategy and resilience. 

Global Pressures Reshaping Energy Costs

Geopolitical Tensions

The conflict between the United States and Iran, including significant disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, drove sustained increases in oil, gasoline, and related energy costs in the months preceding a recently announced two-week ceasefire. While this development offers a degree of near-term relief, it does not represent a structural resolution. The cost increases it has already set in motion, including those now reflected in Jamaican electricity bills, remain firmly in place.

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow stretch of water in the Persian Gulf through which roughly one in every five barrels of oil on earth must pass, and it sits at the geographic centre of this tension. 

Each escalation reprices crude, and repriced crude transmits directly into electricity costs, shipping, and the price of imported goods. Since the conflict intensified, global oil prices have risen from approximately US$60 per barrel to near US$100 per barrel, a shift with immediate implications for energy-dependent economies like Jamaica.

Rising Electricity Rates

For Jamaica, where electricity generation remains heavily tied to imported fuels, the effect is both immediate and direct.

The Jamaica Public Service Company Limited (JPSCo) has already communicated to customers that global fuel prices are rising sharply due to the conflict, and these increases will be reflected in the fuel charge on electricity bills.

With roughly 70 percent  of the island’s power generated from liquefied natural gas (LNG) and a further 20 percent from heavy fuel oil and diesel, international price increases translate directly into higher monthly costs for every household and business on the grid. 

Local business leaders, including Seprod Group CEO Richard Pandohie, have cautioned that the same global instability is likely to drive food price increases in the coming weeks, adding further weight to a cost-of-living environment that leaves little room for avoidable expense.

A Global Shift Toward Alternatives

Against this backdrop, consumer behaviour is shifting decisively toward alternatives. Higher fuel and electricity costs are accelerating interest in both electric vehicles and solar energy systems as people seek to hedge against sustained volatility.

Early indicators from across Asia, the UK, and the United States illustrate the scale of this shift. Dealerships for Chinese manufacturers such as BYD in Manila have reported significant increases in orders and showroom traffic since the conflict intensified. 

In the UK, electric car sales reached a record high in March, rising to 86,120 units according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers & Traders, with plug-in hybrids posting a 47% gain. As Albert Park, chief economist of the Asian Development Bank, observed, “Higher oil prices always help the transition to electric vehicles. It creates economic incentives to accelerate the green transition.”

The same dynamic is playing out strongly in Jamaica, where rising electricity rates have prompted more homeowners and businesses to view solar not merely as an environmentally responsible choice, but as a prudent financial hedge.

This surge in demand, however, introduces a dynamic that is critical to understand. The very forces driving people toward solar are simultaneously beginning to reshape the economics of accessing it.

The Collision of Surging Demand and Rising Costs

China manufactures approximately 80 percent of the world’s solar panels and a dominant share of lithium-ion battery technology. Effective April 1, 2026, it eliminated the value-added tax (VAT) export rebate on photovoltaic products, with a reduction on lithium batteries from 9 percent to 6 percent.  For years, these rebates underpinned a decade of falling panel prices across global markets. That is no longer the case.

This policy adjustment, alongside phased reductions in battery storage incentives, is already exerting upward pressure on module and component prices worldwide.

Analysts have projected near-term price increases of 9 percent to 15 percent across several markets. When combined with the global surge in demand, the result is a classic supply-demand pincer, with more buyers competing at higher price points for equipment that had historically only trended downward. 

The Narrowing Window

Against this global backdrop, Jamaica’s structural advantages remain firmly intact. The country’s exceptional solar irradiance, persistently high retail electricity rates, and net-billing arrangements, which allows system owners to receive credit for surplus electricity returned to the grid, collectively amplify the financial return on every unit of self-generated power.

Layered onto this is Jamaica’s residential solar photovoltaic tax credit, available to individual taxpayers for systems installed at primary residences since January 1, 2023, with a maximum credit of J$1.2 million.

For qualified homeowners, this incentive functions as a meaningful fiscal lever that, in combination with these underlying conditions, compresses payback periods to just a few years, after which the electricity generated by a well-designed system is effectively free and insulated from fuel-price volatility.

The same forces that make solar increasingly attractive are, however, also reshaping the supply landscape.

Rising electricity rates and growing awareness of energy vulnerability are driving a pronounced acceleration in demand globally. Simultaneously, adjustments in manufacturing economics, most notably the scaling back of Chinese export rebates that have underpinned solar pricing for over a decade, are beginning to exert upward pressure on system costs and installation timelines. What had been a sustained buyer’s market is quietly, but measurably, shifting.

This dynamic is compressing the window between current grid costs and solar investment costs. While the cost of going solar is rising, the cost of staying on the grid is rising as well. 

The critical difference is that solar represents a one-time investment that fixes your energy costs for the life of the system. Staying fully on the grid means absorbing every future increase with no ceiling in sight.

The window where solar remains the clearly smarter financial move is still open, even as it narrows.

The Time to Act is Now 

As electricity rates continue their upward trajectory and demand for solar systems accelerates globally, the likelihood of higher installation costs and extended lead times increases correspondingly. Each billing cycle that passes under rising grid tariffs represents continued exposure to precisely the volatility solar is designed to mitigate.

Acting now enables the locking in of current pricing before further market adjustments take hold.

Acting now enables the locking in of current pricing before further market adjustments take hold, the near-term realisation of savings, and the establishment of a degree of energy independence from increasingly unpredictable external cost drivers.

The financial structuring of a well-designed solar solution reinforces this position. When properly designed, a solar system can achieve a cash-positive outcome from inception, where monthly financing obligations align with, or remain below existing electricity expenditure. 

At Solar Buzz, this outcome is deliberately engineered. Every client engagement begins with a detailed, consultative review tailored to the home or business, providing full visibility into the required investment, timelines, projected savings, and expected payback. 

This approach ensures that the transition to solar introduces no additional financial burden, which is especially critical for clients pursuing solar financing. Instead, it reflects a disciplined reallocation of an existing expense toward the acquisition of a long-term asset. 

As electricity rates continue to rise, the financial advantage of this structure strengthens, with savings increasing over time.

Families and businesses that act decisively today are locking in stability ahead of the dual pressures of rising global demand and tightening export economics. 

There is no longer a question of whether solar is affordable. The more apposite question is whether continued exposure to rising, variable electricity costs, with no ceiling and no hedge, remains strategically justifiable.

The Window Remains Open

What is unfolding is not a temporary disturbance but a structural recalibration of the global energy landscape. Fuel markets are demonstrating increased sensitivity to geopolitical developments, supply chains are exhibiting reduced elasticity, and cost volatility is becoming more deeply embedded across energy-dependent sectors. For Jamaica, these dynamics are amplified by a structural dependence on imported fuel.

The recently announced ceasefire is a pause, not a resolution.  It is not a settlement, not a restoration of trust, and not a guarantee of stability. It is not peace earned, but a negotiated delay. 

The underlying conditions that drove oil from US$60 to near US$100 per barrel remain unresolved, and the cost increases already embedded in electricity bills, supply chains, and consumer prices do not reverse on the strength of a two-week pause. For a country like Jamaica whose energy security rests on external flows, a pause is not safety; it is time borrowed.

The window for securing solar under current conditions remains open. Those who act within it will do so at a point where the balance between system cost and avoided electricity expense remains distinctly favourable.

We invite you to contact Solar Buzz Jamaica today. Speak with one of our energy consultants and let us walk you through the numbers specific to your home or business. We will show you exactly what your transition would look like and how quickly your investment can pay for itself under current market conditions.

The window is open. Let us help you walk through it.

This article reflects market conditions as of early April 2026. Incentives and pricing are subject to regulatory and supplier confirmation.

 

 

From the CEO’s Desk

 

 

A Shift in the Rationale for Solar

For many Jamaican households, the decision to invest in solar energy has moved well beyond environmental considerations, and is now increasingly a matter of financial prudence, resilience, and long-term stability.

Electricity costs remain among the most volatile components of household expenditure, while inflationary pressures and climate-related disruptions continue to underscore the importance of energy independence. For many families, electricity is now one of the largest and least predictable monthly expenses.

Against this backdrop, solar energy has become an increasingly rational investment for households looking to stabilise energy costs while strengthening their resilience in an uncertain environment.

The Government’s introduction of the Residential Photovoltaic (PV) Solar Tax Credit (RPSTC) in 2024 was therefore a welcome and important step. The incentive has the potential to accelerate distributed solar adoption and allow thousands of households to transform their homes into efficient, resilient, and economically productive assets. But as with many well-intentioned policies, the practical details of implementation matter.

Where Implementation Meets Opportunity

We appreciate Minister Vaz’s continued openness to engagement on policies that support Jamaica’s transition to renewable energy, including the temporary administrative waiver previously granted to facilitate residential solar adoption.

In recent weeks we have written to the Minister to respectfully request a review of the mandatory Net Billing Licence requirement currently associated with the tax credit application process.

Under the present framework, many homeowners applying for the solar tax credit must first obtain this licence even when their systems are designed primarily for self-consumption rather than exporting electricity to the grid.

At first glance, the requirement may appear administrative. In practice, however, it introduces costs and delays that risk weakening the incentive’s effectiveness.

The licensing process can take many months to complete, while the standard Government Electrical Regulatory (GER) Compliance Certificate – which confirms that a solar system has been safely installed and meets the required electrical standards – can typically be obtained within a matter of days. When this delay is compounded by the processing timelines associated with the portal for claiming the tax credit itself, many homeowners may wait a year or longer before realising the benefit of an incentive designed to accelerate solar adoption. 

The licensing process also introduces additional costs, compounding the upfront investment households are already making. These costs can be particularly difficult to absorb for middle-income families, precisely the demographic the incentive is best positioned to serve. For households where affordability is a genuine consideration, every friction point in the process matters.

For households considering a substantial investment in solar, both time and cost are crucial. A delayed and more expensive incentive weakens the economics of the investment and extends the system’s payback period.

What the Grid Never Sees

More fundamentally, the requirement risks applying an export-based regulatory framework to systems that are not designed to export electricity at all.

Most modern residential solar installations in Jamaica are configured primarily for self-consumption with battery storage. During the day, households draw electricity directly from their solar panels while simultaneously charging their battery systems. In the evenings and overnight, homes typically rely on that stored energy rather than the grid.

In this configuration, the utility grid functions largely as a backup supply, used mainly during periods of extended cloud cover or unusually high household demand. As a result, these systems are designed to minimise reliance on grid electricity, not to generate significant surplus energy for export.

In practical terms, this means that many battery-based residential systems are structurally unlikely to produce meaningful excess electricity beyond the household’s own consumption needs. Applying a licensing framework designed for electricity exporters to these self-consumption systems therefore introduces regulatory complexity without addressing a genuine operational need.

A more proportionate approach would clearly distinguish between:

  • Systems designed to export electricity to the grid, for which a net billing licence is appropriate and necessary; and
  • Systems designed primarily for household self-consumption, for which a streamlined pathway – anchored in the GER Compliance Certificate – would be both sufficient and more administratively efficient.

Such clarity would not only simplify the process for homeowners, but would also strengthen confidence in the policy framework governing residential solar. We have respectfully advocated for precisely this distinction in our engagement with the Ministry, and we remain encouraged by the constructive dialogue to date.

When Policy and Finance Align

When incentives operate efficiently, solar investments produce faster returns. Shorter payback periods improve household cash-flow profiles and strengthen borrowers’ ability to service solar financing.

In practical terms, well-aligned policy can materially de-risk solar lending by improving borrower capacity and stabilising household energy expenses. For financial institutions evaluating solar loans, predictable cash flows and shorter payback timelines are not abstract benefits as they directly improve the credit profile of borrowers and help unlock broader access to financing for clean energy technologies.

The Bank of Jamaica’s caution that credit conditions may tighten further lends urgency to the need for a seamless and accessible incentive process for households seeking to finance solar adoption.

Administrative efficiency within incentive programs such as the RPSTC is not simply a regulatory matter. It directly influences the pace at which households are able to adopt solar, strengthen their long-term energy resilience, and confidently manage the financial commitment involved.

A Narrowing Window in Global Solar Pricing

Global solar pricing may soon face upward pressure following the scheduled removal of export tax rebates on photovoltaic products such as batteries, panels and inverters by the Chinese government.

Given Jamaica’s reliance on imported solar equipment, these shifts are expected to gradually translate into higher landed costs for distributors and homeowners, tighter inventory allocation and possibly shorter quotation validity periods. In practical terms, this means the window for securing systems at today’s pricing may narrow over the coming months.

Ensuring that the solar tax incentive operates smoothly and efficiently is therefore not merely beneficial but also time-sensitive. A streamlined process would allow more households to adopt solar while equipment pricing remains relatively favourable, helping them lock in lower energy costs for years to come.

Beyond Installation

At Solar Buzz, our advocacy on this issue is guided by a simple principle: when our clients and subscribers are willing to invest their own capital in strengthening their household’s energy resilience and in doing so, contribute to the country’s broader energy future, public policy should facilitate that decision rather than inadvertently complicate it.

The transition toward distributed renewable energy will not be driven by government policy alone. It will depend on the cumulative decisions of thousands of households choosing to invest in solar technologies. Ensuring that the incentive framework reflects the practical realities of that investment will help accelerate that transition for everyone.

The Path Forward

We remain committed to constructive engagement between policymakers, regulators and industry as Jamaica’s renewable energy framework continues to evolve toward outcomes that are economically sound, administratively efficient and supportive of homeowners.

At Solar Buzz, we will continue to advocate for our clients and for the homeowners helping to build Jamaica’s more resilient energy future.

The UK’s biggest energy firm has seen a 50% rise in solar panel sales after the US-Israel war with Iran pushed oil and gas prices up, its boss told the BBC.

Greg Jackson, head of Octopus Energy, described a “huge jolt” in sales of solar panels and heat pumps, as well as enquiries about electric vehicles and chargers, so far this month compared to February.

Jackson said households would “very likely” see higher energy bills from July when Ofgem’s price cap, which is currently shielding millions of households, is reset.

He told the BBC’s Big Boss Interview podcast that Octopus was staying optimistic about the impacts of the conflict, but planning on it being “more serious”.

Wholesale oil and gas prices have surged since the war broke out on 28 February, disrupting the production and transportation of energy across the Middle East.

Higher energy prices may lead to a rise in the cost of other goods around the world, but it often shows up first at the fuel pump.

Jackson said the UK had experienced a “much more dramatic increase in energy costs than we are likely to see here” after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

He acknowledged it “couldn’t be more confusing” for people that the price cap will lower prices for three months from April, while at the same time people are being warned the crisis will likely lead to future energy bill rises.

He said this had pushed households to think about renewable energy.

He said customers were saying “Look, we’ve just got to do something about it” with Octopus seeing a 50% rise in solar panel sales and 30% rise in heat pump sales, while enquiries about EVs were up more than a third, and chargers by about a fifth.

This is based on comparing the first three weeks of February and March, with Jackson saying orders and enquiries were normally fairly steady month on month.

He was also asked about recent comments to the BBC by Larry Fink, chief executive of the world’s biggest asset management company, BlackRock, comparing progress on energy in China to Europe where he just sees “a lot of talk and no action”.

Jackson said Europe was “torturing” itself over discussions about moving too fast or slow on green energy, and North Sea drilling.

China, however, was just “getting on with it”, he said, citing its state oil company’s aim to get rid of all petrol stations by 2040.

“They’re doing it because it gives them more and more resilience, more and more energy security against the kind of crisis we’re seeing yet again in the Middle East and in the global fossil fuel industries,” he said.

He brushed aside suggestions that more oil drilling in the North Sea would make the UK more resilient.

This would make only a “tiny difference”, he said, adding the fossil fuel industry will never have lots of spare capacity which is why prices go “through the roof” when there is a supply crunch.

He said the most important thing is to get the cost of electricity down in the UK, which would enable more people to use EVs and heat pumps.

While EVs would once have been regarded as expensive options, he said there was more parity now between petrol and electric models and an emerging second-hand market.

The divide where lower income households were priced out of affording EVs is “disappearing”, he added.

In the wide-ranging interview, Jackson also cited the role of the welfare state in supporting his “incredible single mum” who was studying while bringing him and his siblings up.

He said the benefits bill was often seen as too high, and there was a need to find ways to get people into work.

“And exactly as it happened for my mum, be a sort of an enabler to go on to great things,” he continued. “So I do think it’s really important that we have some of the social structures that let people get through tough times in order to become contributors.”

Jackson also touched on Artificial Intelligence (AI), warning the “relentless pace” in advancement could leave humans with very little that they are better at than machines.

We must be ready for an “incredible degree of change”, he said, adding: “There’s going to be a lot less if anything that’s unique about people and we’re going to have to really work hard to work out how we make that good for us.”

BBC News

China’s decision to end value-added tax rebates on solar panel exports and phase out incentives for making battery storage equipment could push up the cost of solar installations in Africa, which relies heavily on imported Chinese technology.

The changes, expected to take effect April 1 for solar panels and beginning next year for batteries, may complicate efforts to expand renewable energy to close vast electricity gaps across Africa, though experts say the impact likely will be manageable.

“We are likely to see solar panel prices increase in Africa, because most of the inputs come from China,” said Wangari Muchiri, an energy analyst focused on Africa’s clean energy sector. “Removing the rebate will add to existing costs, especially when you consider shipping, logistics, and other import fees.”

Africa already pays significantly more for solar equipment than other regions because of transport costs, smaller import volumes and tariffs.

China’s policy change reflects broader shifts after fierce competition among Chinese manufacturers pushed solar module prices to as little as $0.07 per watt in 2025, from $0.25 in 2022. That helped drive global adoption of solar energy but left many companies with heavy losses.

Some Chinese companies built VAT rebates into their export pricing, effectively transferring those subsidies to their overseas buyers. But Beijing has cut back on those payments as it reins in overcapacity and shifts toward more advanced technologies.

Rather than a sharp price shock, the loss of such rebates will likely gradually raise prices, setting a firmer global price floor.

“The changes are significant, but not catastrophic,” said John van Zuylen, CEO of the Africa Solar Industry Association.

“The entire recent solar boom was built on artificially cheap Chinese pricing,” van Zuylen said. “That era is now ending.”

“When a structural rebate is removed, exporters typically either absorb the cost, raise prices, or reduce discounting,” van Zuylen said. “African countries will likely feel this as a gradual upward shift in pricing rather than a single dramatic spike.”

Even with modest price increases, solar is expected to remain competitive across much of the continent, since it’s the cheapest source of energy in Africa, Muchiri said.

“Even with higher panel prices, it will still be significantly cheaper than alternatives like diesel,” she said.

“It will increase project costs slightly and might delay the project construction pipeline due to supply chain shortages and contractual changes, stockpiling rush, congestion in shipment for the countries heavily reliant on Chinese imports,” said Sonia Dunlop, CEO of the Global Solar Council, an industry association.

Battery storage, critical for providing electricity after sunset, may face a bigger challenge as incentives are phased out through 2027. Higher costs may affect smaller users the most, van Zuylen said.

“Batteries matter more than panels for Africa because storage is what makes solar reliable for off-grid and backup users,” he said.

Basil Abia, co-founder of the Nigerian energy research firm Truva Intelligence, said that “batteries have historically been expensive, and many solar installations in Africa were built without them”.

“Only recently have we started seeing more systems combining solar with battery storage,” Abia said.

He said that, even without rebates, solar modules remain relatively affordable. Through 2024 and early 2025, module prices fell sharply from around $0.25 per watt in previous years to as low as $0.07 per watt.

Demand for solar, which now supplies three per cent of power generation in Africa, is expected to continue growing as storage improves reliability. Meanwhile, the heavy dependence on Chinese equipment is drawing attention to limited local manufacturing capacity.

“The VAT removal will slow, but not reverse Africa’s clean energy transition,” Abia said. “Countries that use this moment to accelerate local manufacturing will emerge stronger. Those that do not will remain exposed to Beijing’s next industrial policy adjustment.”

AP News

Editor’s Note:

For homeowners and businesses considering solar installation, timing is becoming a more important part of the decision.

Recent developments in global solar supply chains may influence equipment pricing and availability over the coming months, making planning decisions today more consequential. Understanding these shifts can help inform more effective investment decisions.

Jamaica’s solar market remains closely connected to global supply chains, so developments abroad often shape local availability and cost structures.

This edition outlines what is changing – and what it may mean for solar adoption in Jamaica.

 

The global solar supply chain is entering a period of adjustment. China, the world’s largest producer of photovoltaic equipment, has announced changes to export tax rebates that have historically helped stabilize international solar pricing. This policy adjustment is expected to influence global supply chain dynamics and is likely to affect international solar pricing structures over time.

Under the new policy framework, export VAT rebates for photovoltaic products, including solar panels, cells, wafers, inverters, and other PV system components will be eliminated beginning April 1, 2026. Export rebates for batteries will decline from 9 percent to 6 percent in April 2026 before being fully eliminated on January 1, 2027.

As these incentives are phased out, procurement patterns, equipment availability, and ultimately the economics of solar installation in import-dependent markets such as Jamaica are likely to be affected. These rebates have historically helped offset exporters’ tax burdens, lowering international prices. Their removal raises the underlying cost structure for manufacturers unless those costs are absorbed through narrower margins.

“Removing export rebates raises the cost base for solar manufacturers unless those costs are absorbed through tighter margins.”

Storage-inclusive solar systems, which are increasingly important for backup reliability, may remain relatively stable through much of 2026 but still warrant proactive planning ahead of the more significant pricing adjustment expected in 2027.

While global competition may soften the full pass-through of these costs, the policy nonetheless introduces a structural adjustment in the international solar equipment market. Over the medium term, China’s policy adjustment may also enhance the competitiveness of alternative manufacturing hubs in Southeast Asia, India, and Turkey, encouraging gradual diversification within global solar supply chains.

Global Procurement Pressures

Ahead of April 2026 and its domino effects, international buyers are expected to accelerate purchases to secure current pricing structures. This “front-loading” effect typically results in shorter quotation validity periods, allocation-based supply, and temporary tightness in availability.

“Many buyers are already positioning to secure supply ahead of the policy deadlines, tightening inventory availability.” 

For Jamaica, an import-dependent solar market closely tied to China-centered supply chains through regional distributors, these movements are most likely to appear first in the form of extended lead times and inventory allocation pressures, followed by incremental adjustments in landed equipment costs.

Projects quoted locally in Jamaican dollars but procured in U.S. dollars may experience an additional layer of volatility, as shifts in global pricing interact with exchange-rate movements and freight dynamics. 

“Solar projects priced in Jamaican dollars but procured in U.S. dollars may face additional volatility as global prices shift.”

Many buyers globally are already positioning to secure supply ahead of the implementation dates, a development that may place additional pressure on inventory availability and procurement timelines in the months ahead.

Gradual Upward Pressure on Solar Installed Costs

Although market competition may absorb a portion of the change, removing export rebates increases the underlying cost base for manufacturers. Solar module pricing may therefore face upward pressure from the second quarter of 2026 onward.

Beginning in April 2026, export rebates for batteries will decline from 9 percent to 6 percent, introducing a modest increase in export-level costs that could translate into several percentage points of upward pressure on battery pricing, depending on how much manufacturers absorb through margins. A more material adjustment may emerge heading into 2027, when the remaining rebate is fully removed.

Additionally, the front-loading of purchases by international buyers is expected to create temporary global supply tightness in the first half of 2026. With demand for solar equipment remaining strong in import-dependent markets such as Jamaica, this short-term scarcity may exert incremental upward pressure on pricing in the near term, compounding the direct effect of the removed export rebates.

For Jamaican homeowners and commercial operators considering solar installation, the implication is relatively straightforward. The current procurement window may offer comparatively stable pricing conditions relative to what could emerge in 2026–2027.

“The current procurement window may offer relatively stable pricing compared with what could emerge in 2026–2027.”

Financing Pathways for Solar Adoption

Institutional Financing Channels 

A growing number of financial institutions, including JMMB, EXIM Bank, First Global Bank (FGB), CIBC and Lascelles Employees & Partners Co-operative Credit Union, offer structured financing solutions that allow solar systems to be integrated into broader property or energy investments. In many cases, once a system satisfies local insurability standards, it may serve as secured collateral within these financing arrangements.

“Once a solar system meets insurability standards, it becomes an energy asset and a financeable component of the property.” 

Solar Buzz systems are designed and installed to meet the insurability standards required within Jamaica’s insurance industry. As a result, these systems can typically be incorporated into a homeowner’s existing property insurance coverage, allowing them to function not only as an energy asset but also as a financeable component of the property itself.

National Housing Trust (NHT) Financing Programmes

The National Housing Trust (NHT), in particular, provides two notable pathways for homeowners seeking financing of solar energy into their properties:

  • Smart Energy Loan

Available to all NHT contributors for solar energy installations, offering financing of up to J$2.5 million.

  • Home Improvement Loan

Providing up to J$5 million, this facility allows homeowners to undertake structural improvements such as roof repairs or roof adjustments required for solar readiness, while also financing the installation of a solar system.

With interest rates typically ranging from approximately 3 percent to 5 percent and repayment periods extending up to 30 years or until retirement, the Trust’s programmes create a rare alignment of long-term financing and energy infrastructure investment.

For many homeowners, this creates a practical pathway to address structural upgrades and solar installation within a single financing structure, strengthening both the physical resilience of the property and its long-term energy cost stability as Jamaica approaches another hurricane season.

Looking Ahead: Solar Adoption in Jamaica

China’s export policy adjustment does not signal disruption so much as it serves as a reminder that global energy markets are continually evolving.

As international buyers adjust procurement strategies ahead of the upcoming policy deadlines, Jamaican households and businesses evaluating solar energy solutions may wish to factor these developments into their planning. 

With appropriate timing, sound financing structures, and well-designed solar systems, solar continues to offer a practical pathway toward greater energy resilience and long-term cost stability.

Jamaica’s abundant solar resource, combined with expanding financing pathways, means that thoughtful planning today can help position homeowners and businesses to navigate the evolving energy landscape with greater confidence.

By Deidre Wedderburn

Client Relations Manager, Solar Buzz

Focused on building long-term partnerships and delivering a high-quality client experience

deidre@solarbuzzjamaica.com

Editor’s Note:

In recent client communications we noted that changes to China’s export policies for solar equipment could influence global pricing and supply dynamics. Because Jamaica’s solar market remains closely connected to international supply chains, developments abroad often shape local procurement conditions. As promised, this edition examines what these developments may mean for Jamaica’s growing solar market.

The global solar supply chain is entering a period of adjustment. China, the world’s largest producer of photovoltaic equipment, has announced changes to export tax rebates that have historically helped stabilize international solar pricing. This policy adjustment is expected to influence global supply chain dynamics and is likely to affect international solar pricing structures over time.

Under the new policy framework, export VAT rebates for photovoltaic products, including solar panels, cells, wafers, inverters, and other PV system components will be eliminated beginning April 1, 2026. Export rebates for batteries will decline from 9 percent to 6 percent in April 2026 before being fully eliminated on January 1, 2027.

As these incentives are phased out, procurement patterns, equipment availability, and ultimately the economics of solar installation in import-dependent markets such as Jamaica are likely to be affected. These rebates have historically helped offset exporters’ tax burdens, lowering international prices. Their removal raises the underlying cost structure for manufacturers unless those costs are absorbed through narrower margins.

“Removing export rebates raises the cost base for solar manufacturers unless those costs are absorbed through tighter margins.”

Storage-inclusive solar systems, which are increasingly important for backup reliability, may remain relatively stable through much of 2026 but still warrant proactive planning ahead of the more significant pricing adjustment expected in 2027.

While global competition may soften the full pass-through of these costs, the policy nonetheless introduces a structural adjustment in the international solar equipment market. Over the medium term, China’s policy adjustment may also enhance the competitiveness of alternative manufacturing hubs in Southeast Asia, India, and Turkey, encouraging gradual diversification within global solar supply chains.

Global Procurement Pressures

Ahead of April 2026 and its domino effects, international buyers are expected to accelerate purchases to secure current pricing structures. This “front-loading” effect typically results in shorter quotation validity periods, allocation-based supply, and temporary tightness in availability.

“Many buyers are already positioning to secure supply ahead of the policy deadlines, tightening inventory availability.” 

For Jamaica, an import-dependent solar market closely tied to China-centered supply chains through regional distributors, these movements are most likely to appear first in the form of extended lead times and inventory allocation pressures, followed by incremental adjustments in landed equipment costs.

Projects quoted locally in Jamaican dollars but procured in U.S. dollars may experience an additional layer of volatility, as shifts in global pricing interact with exchange-rate movements and freight dynamics. 

“Solar projects priced in Jamaican dollars but procured in U.S. dollars may face additional volatility as global prices shift.”

Many buyers globally are already positioning to secure supply ahead of the implementation dates, a development that may place additional pressure on inventory availability and procurement timelines in the months ahead.

Gradual Upward Pressure on Solar Installed Costs

Although market competition may absorb a portion of the change, removing export rebates increases the underlying cost base for manufacturers. Solar module pricing may therefore face upward pressure from the second quarter of 2026 onward.

Beginning in April 2026, export rebates for batteries will decline from 9 percent to 6 percent, introducing a modest increase in export-level costs that could translate into several percentage points of upward pressure on battery pricing, depending on how much manufacturers absorb through margins. A more material adjustment may emerge heading into 2027, when the remaining rebate is fully removed.

Additionally, the front-loading of purchases by international buyers is expected to create temporary global supply tightness in the first half of 2026. With demand for solar equipment remaining strong in import-dependent markets such as Jamaica, this short-term scarcity may exert incremental upward pressure on pricing in the near term, compounding the direct effect of the removed export rebates.

For Jamaican homeowners and commercial operators considering solar installation, the implication is relatively straightforward. The current procurement window may offer comparatively stable pricing conditions relative to what could emerge in 2026–2027.

“The current procurement window may offer relatively stable pricing compared with what could emerge in 2026–2027.”

Financing Pathways for Solar Adoption

Institutional Financing Channels 

A growing number of financial institutions, including JMMB, EXIM Bank, First Global Bank (FGB), CIBC and Lascelles Employees & Partners Co-operative Credit Union, offer structured financing solutions that allow solar systems to be integrated into broader property or energy investments. In many cases, once a system satisfies local insurability standards, it may serve as secured collateral within these financing arrangements.

“Once a solar system meets insurability standards, it becomes an energy asset and a financeable component of the property.” 

Solar Buzz systems are designed and installed to meet the insurability standards required within Jamaica’s insurance industry. As a result, these systems can typically be incorporated into a homeowner’s existing property insurance coverage, allowing them to function not only as an energy asset but also as a financeable component of the property itself.

National Housing Trust (NHT) Financing Programmes

The National Housing Trust (NHT), in particular, provides two notable pathways for homeowners seeking financing of solar energy into their properties:

  • Smart Energy Loan

Available to all NHT contributors for solar energy installations, offering financing of up to J$2.5 million.

  • Home Improvement Loan

Providing up to J$5 million, this facility allows homeowners to undertake structural improvements such as roof repairs or roof adjustments required for solar readiness, while also financing the installation of a solar system.

With interest rates typically ranging from approximately 3 percent to 5 percent and repayment periods extending up to 30 years or until retirement, the Trust’s programmes create a rare alignment of long-term financing and energy infrastructure investment.

For many homeowners, this creates a practical pathway to address structural upgrades and solar installation within a single financing structure, strengthening both the physical resilience of the property and its long-term energy cost stability as Jamaica approaches another hurricane season.

Looking Ahead: Solar Adoption in Jamaica

China’s export policy adjustment does not signal disruption so much as it serves as a reminder that global energy markets are continually evolving.

As international buyers adjust procurement strategies ahead of the upcoming policy deadlines, Jamaican households and businesses evaluating solar energy solutions may wish to factor these developments into their planning. 

With appropriate timing, sound financing structures, and well-designed solar systems, solar continues to offer a practical pathway toward greater energy resilience and long-term cost stability.

Jamaica’s abundant solar resource, combined with expanding financing pathways, means that thoughtful planning today can help position homeowners and businesses to navigate the evolving energy landscape with greater confidence.

By Deidre Wedderburn

Deidre Wedderburn is Client Relations Manager at SolarBuzz, supporting homeowners and businesses across Jamaica as they transition to solar energy.

deidre@solarbuzzjamaica.com

Agnes Chan is part of a stealth solar revolution bubbling up in the US. The retired teacher has a tiny solar system propped up in her backyard in Berkeley, California, and plugged into a regular outlet. It costs around $2,000, shaves about $50 off her monthly bills, and she’s evangelical about it. “I have already recommended it many times,” she said.

Originally, Chan had wanted a full rooftop solar system, but the $20,000-plus price tag was unaffordable. Plug-in solar offered a cheaper, portable and more flexible option: It was incredibly easy to set up, would help keep her 100-year-old house toasty this winter and would pay for itself in three years.

Chan is one of a growing number of Americans turning to plug-in solar — also called “balcony solar” as it’s often slung over balconies — to help bring down soaring energy bills. Even as the Trump administration seeks to squash renewable energy, the interest is spurring action in nearly 30 states that are now considering legislation to make these cheap, small systems more accessible.

There are hurdles, however. Plug-in solar currently exists in a legal “gray area,” said Cora Stryker, co-founder of Bright Saver, a non-profit that advocates for balcony solar. Almost every state requires an agreement with the local utility company, a process that can take months and add costs.

That’s why people are going stealth and hooking up “guerilla solar” systems without telling their utility, Stryker said.

The beauty of plug-in solar is its simplicity: People pick up cheap, small solar panels, hang them almost anywhere without the need for an electrician, plug them into a regular outlet and start generating electricity — it’s essentially a DIY power plant. The only bit of special kit required is a microinverter, which allows the energy generated from the sun to feed directly into household electricity.

Germany is the pioneer, with 1.23 million balcony systems installed, according to the country’s Federal Network Agency. The real number may be as high as 4 million, as many systems are believed to be unregistered, according to a 2025 report from Solar Power Europe.

Regulations in that country have facilitated the boom, including by effectively preventing landlords blocking tenants from installing balcony solar. For Germans, it’s as easy as popping into Ikea to buy a panel, with prices starting at around $235. Data suggests plug-in solar can cut energy bills by 10% to 20%.

When Utah Republican State Representative Ray Ward first came across news articles about what was happening in Germany, it got his brain whirring. The more he read, the more it appealed. “You’re like, oh my gosh, this is so simple compared to what we’re doing and then it makes you wonder why you can’t have that here.”

So, he did something no other state had done. He sponsored a bill to allow small plug-in systems to be used by Utah residents without needing agreements with utility companies.

“People always want to tell you: ‘well that’s just impossible, that’s dangerous, you’d better not do that it will burn the building down’,” Ward said. He just pointed to Germany’s yearslong record, and told them: “It hasn’t burnt down.”

Ward’s arguments worked; the bill passed last year. What was astonishing was that it passed unanimously, said Jennifer Eden, a senior associate at the non-profit Utah Clean Energy. “The amount of buzz and interest it has created is fairly remarkable.”

The appeal of balcony solar is clear for those on the left, who want clean energy, and for those on the right, who want to meet their needs without government interference, Stryker said. “It’s almost a choose your own adventure of what narrative will appeal to your constituency,” she added.

Concerns about rising oil and gas prices due to conflict in the Middle East, may add another reason for both sides of the aisle to be interested.

Utah’s move has set off a legislative wave. At least 28 states, including Washington, California, Oklahoma and South Carolina, have draft bills in the works that would smooth the way to a much broader uptake.

But utility agreements are not the only hurdle. Another key issue is safety standards. While the constituent parts of plug-in solar — the panels and the microinverter — are certified for safety, there isn’t a certification for the system as a whole.

Concerns include the risk of overloading home circuits, causing wires to overheat and catch fire, and potential shock hazards for utility workers if devices unexpectedly export power to the grid. Germany has introduced measures to mitigate these risks, but the market is much newer in the US, which also operates a different electrical system.

Some utilities and trade groups have opposed draft bills. In Washington, Puget Sound Energy and the Association of Washington Business both testified against the state’s draft plug-in solar bill, citing safety concerns. There is a lack of “clear product safety certification for how these devices perform in real apartment buildings,” said AWB’s government affairs director Peter Godlewski.

But neither organization said they were opposed in principle to balcony solar. “If we’re able to address these issues, we could get to supporting the bill,” said a spokesperson for Puget Sound Energy.

Each safety risk “can be mitigated with engineered solutions, but products with those safety mitigations will differ from those presently on the market,” said Ken Boyce, a vice president at UL Solutions, a company that develops safety standards. In January, UL Solutions released a certification framework for plug-in solar.

Advocates hope final safety standards won’t add extra costs to those wanting plug in solar, for example by requiring professional installation.

“I am not trying to say we just don’t need a safety standard … but it’s not an electrically complicated product,” Ward said. He believes opposition lies in unfamiliarity with these tiny systems, which are very different to more complex rooftop solar systems.

There aren’t official statistics on how many US households have balcony solar, but there is evidence of their popularity. Texas-based company CraftStrom sells plug-in solar in all 50 states and sold 1,200 units last year. It advises customers to notify their utility but, as their kits don’t export any power to the grid, interconnection agreements typically aren’t needed, said Stephan Scherer, a company founder.

Balcony solar will only ever cover a fraction of American’s energy needs; these systems are small — that’s their whole point. But Stryker believes they can both tackle soaring bills and show people the benefits of renewable energy. “It is real gateway to clean energy awareness,” she said.

As proponents wait for regulations to catch up, they say the numbers of early adopters like Chan will continue to grow. “There are people who are savvy and adventurous, who are going to figure out ways to make this work,” said Utah Clean Energy’s Eden.

Ward thinks the clamor for balcony solar will only get louder. “It’s so easy to understand and people know they want it,” Ward said. “People are saying well why can’t I have this?”

CNN

Nearly two dozen states are weighing plug-in solar systems.

For years, many Europeans have enjoyed what Americans can’t have. Balcony solar has taken off there, while American homes and apartments have been left in the dark.

But that may be changing: California recently introduced legislation that would legalize installing cheap DIY solar systems to protect against blackouts and help with affordability. It’s not the only state, either.

As electricity prices soar and rooftop solar subsidies vanish, some US renters and homeowners are surreptitiously installing solar panels on balconies and backyards without their utility’s permission. Legislation recently introduced in nearly two dozen states would legalize “plug-in solar” systems, jumpstarting a nascent market for an affordable source of renewable energy.

Also called balcony solar, such systems usually comprise two to four solar panels that are plugged into wall outlets. They typically cost about $2,000 or more and generate enough electricity to power a refrigerator, electronics and lights, potentially shaving several hundred dollars a year from utility bills. Some plug-in solar systems come with batteries to store power for use during peak demand when electricity rates spike and when storms or heat waves knock out the grid.

Millions of balcony solar systems have been deployed in countries like Germany, which regulates the technology. But only about 5,000 have been installed in the US, according to advocates, most without utility authorization. That’s because plug-in solar has remained in the shadows due to a lack of safety standards and often costly requirements imposed by utilities, but that’s changing. Utah in 2025 enacted a law allowing plug-in solar without utility approval and other states are considering similar legislation, including New York and California, the nation’s largest solar market.

“The impact of California passing legislation would be huge and will get manufacturers to come into the market,” said Kevin Chou, cofounder and executive director of Bright Saver, a Bay Area nonprofit that sells do-it-yourself plug-in solar systems and has pushed to legalize the technology.

Under the legislation introduced in January in California, residents could install plug-in solar systems without utility authorization. But those systems couldn’t generate more than 1.2 kilowatts of electricity and must be certified by a nationally recognized testing lab. Legislation in other states contains siBmilar requirements.

Utah’s Republican-dominated legislature unanimously approved a plug-in solar bill in 2025, and the state’s Republican governor signed it into law. Although pro-renewable energy Democrats hold a supermajority in the California legislature, the bill introduced by state Senator Scott Wiener, who is running to replace US Representative Nancy Pelosi, is likely to face opposition from some landlords, homeowners associations and utilities, according to Chou.

Utilities have expressed concern about plug-in solar’s impact on the ability to balance the grid if the systems feed excess electricity to the network without their knowledge. Landlords may worry about solar panels falling off balconies or how they change the look of a building, he said. Homeowners associations, which regulate everything from house colors to landscaping, may object to the aesthetics of backyard solar.

California’s three big investor-owned utilities currently require plug-in solar owners to apply and secure approval to interconnect to the grid, just as owners of rooftop solar must do.

Chou estimates that more than a thousand plug-in solar systems have been installed in California. But PG&E and San Diego Gas & Electric have yet to receive any interconnection applications for the equipment, according to spokespeople.

Bloomberg

BEIJING, Jan 9 (Reuters) – China will cancel value-added tax export rebates for photovoltaic products from April 1, the finance ministry said in a joint statement with the State Taxation Administration on Friday.

The ministry also said VAT export rebates for battery products will be cut to 6% from 9% between April and December and scrapped entirely from January 1, 2027.

Consumption-tax rebate rules for these products will remain unchanged, the statement added.

The China Photovoltaic Industry Association, in a statement later on Friday, said the move should help curb an excessive decline of export prices in the long run as China’s PV products face intensifying competition in overseas markets.

It noted that some Chinese exporters were using rebates as a price discount for foreign buyers.

“Timely reduction or cancellation of export rebates for photovoltaic products can help promote a rational return of foreign market prices and reduce the risk of trade frictions,” the association said.

China previously reduced the export tax rebate for PV products to 9% from 13% in December 2024 as part of its broader efforts to curb overcapacity and deflationary price wars amid international trade tensions.

Reuters