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As oil glut hits, GOJ oil hedge for 2016 set at US$65.90 strike price

January 22, 2016 Webmaster

The Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) indicated on Wednesday that to date, the Government of Jamaica (GOJ) has spent US$27.87 million or J$3.2 billion on oil hedge contracts. In total, five contracts have been signed with Citibank covering periods up to December 2016.

For the current period, the contract runs from January 2016 to December 2016 with a strike price of US$65.90.

The strike price means that Jamaica will begin to receive payouts if the price per barrel of crude hits that mark or exceeds it.

Some analysts to whom the Jamaica Observer have spoken say that it is clear a better deal could have been struck had the Government waited a while before spending money for the hedge in 2015, but they also note that it could not have been predicted that oil prices would continue to slip downwards to the extent to which they have.

Earlier this week, benchmark crude prices fell to their lowest since September 2003 on worries about a global glut.

A new drop came Tuesday after the International Energy Agency, which advises industrialised countries on energy policy, used the alarming term “drown in oversupply” in relation to the oil markets of 2016. The market has begun to react to plans by Iran to ramp up supplies to regain market share.

The West Texas Intermediate index slid 2.3 per cent to US$27.80 per barrel of crude on Tuesday, while Brent slipped 2.3 per cent to US$28.09 per barrel.

On Wednesday the downward spiral continued with Brent Crude down 5.2 per cent at US$27.28 a barrel, while WTI sunk 6.6 per cent to US$26.59.

Analysts note that oil price has plummeted 75 per cent since mid-2014 as oversupply, mainly due to US shale oil flooding the market, has driven down the cost, even while a slowdown in economic growth in China and Europe has cut demand.

Locally, technocrats had suggested a return to US$70 per barrel by year end 2016, a prediction informing the decisions by the GOJ technical committee set up to manage the hedges. The technical committee is chaired by Michael Hewitt of Petrojam and has representatives from the BOJ, the Ministry of Finance, and Development Bank of Jamaica.

One analyst in Kingston, who spoke on condition of anonymity, commented, “To be honest, hindsight is 20/20. We could not have anticipated the current prices. It is easy to say the obvious, which is that if we had waited we could have got a better deal, in the form of a lower premium. In fact, it is obvious, based on where things are, the hedge (for contract periods already covered) was not needed.”

The BOJ informed the Caribbean Business Report that the GOJ is prepared to write new contracts for the period beyond 2016, before year end.

Funds already spent on hedging, provided for in the FY2015/16 budget, were paid out of the Consolidated Fund to facilitate the upfront purchase of the hedge contracts, the central bank stated.

It said that the advance is now being repaid from the proceeds of the new special consumption tax introduced in March 2015 to pay for the hedge.

The amount paid out so far is only about half of what the Government plans to raise from the SCT of $7 per litre on petrol — about six US cents per litre — which is expected to fall in the ball park of $6.4 billion by year-end.

The five existing contracts for hedging are all with Citibank which was the successful bidder for that round of contracting.

Periods covered by the contracts range from June 2015 to May 2016 (two contracts) with a weighted average strike price of US$66.55; and September 2015 to August 2016 (two contracts) with a weighted average strike price of US$66.80. The last is the contract for January 2016 to December 2016 with a strike price of US$65.90.

Regional governments have been eyeing hedging as a new strategy to protect against changes in the price of crude. Mexico, which hedged against a fall in prices, collected US$6 billion under hedge contracts in 2015.

Jamaica Observer

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Window Tinting, Solar Panels Cut NCB Energy Bill 20%

January 18, 2016 Webmaster

NCB Group headquarters, The Atrium, at Trafalgar Road, New Kingston. The banking group’s energy initatives have cuts its electricity bill by 20 per cent across its network.

National Commercial Bank Jamaica (NCB) has cut its energy consumption by 20 per cent over the past four years and is projecting half-billion dollars of new savings over the next four.

By tinting its windows, changing its light and air-conditioning units, and installing some solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, the bank hopes to cut its electricity bill by another eight per cent in 2016.

If it achieves its latest goal, NCB would spend $140 million less on energy this year than it would if it had not implemented any of the energy-saving initiatives that started in 2011.

Back then, the financial institution forked out over $600 million to keep the lights on. Air conditioning accounted for more than 60 per cent of the energy use while lighting accounted for another 20 per cent, so it was decided that light-emitting diode (LED) lights would be installed across its locations, while high efficiency air-condition units and solar systems have been put in place at select sites, such as NCB’s head office on Trafalgar Road.

Reflective tinting on windows, roof insulation, and automated light controls have also helped protect the bank’s buildings from heat infiltration and have enhanced the energy-saving process.

This year, NCB plans to “continue implementing projects to install high-efficiency air-conditioning systems at relevant locations and increase the use of LED and PV panels,” according to the latest annual report.

So far, it has spent $500 million to implement various energy-reduction initiatives.

“We have an energy portfolio that is continuously being assessed, and our expenditure is guided by our environmental policy and, therefore, is subject to variations,” said NCB in reply to Sunday Business queries.

With the energy-saving expenditure, the banking group has so far avoided some $300 million in energy cost over the past four years, and expects to save another $500 million over the next four, based on current energy rates.

NCB can also boast a positive contribution to the environment. By reducing its energy consumption by 2.7 million kilowatt-hours – which is equivalent to the electricity used by 1,350 homes in Jamaica – it has reduced its footprint by approximately 1,800 metric tonnes of carbon dioxide annually. That’s the equivalent of the emissions given off by a plane making 25 round trips to and from New York, or by 100 cars driving from Kingston to Mandeville and back every day for a year.

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Government Oil Hedge Underwater

January 15, 2016 Webmaster

Gov’t oil hedge underwater

In June 2015, the Government of Jamaica booked a hedge transaction to buy six million barrels of oil for delivery 15 months later at a strike price of US$66.74.

The mechanism used in this kind of transaction is called a ‘call option’, which gives the purchaser of the option the right, but not the obligation, to purchase the asset at a specified price the ‘strike price’ within a specified time. A month later, it bought another 15-month futures contract for two million barrels of oil and the average strike price of the two contacts is US$66.53.

We paid about $30 million to Citibank for the privilege of placing this bet on oil prices going higher than our strike price in 15 months.

When these contracts to buy crude oil were booked, prices on the world market was trading at about US$63 a barrel and had rebounded from about US$45 in January 2015. The government placed a bet based on its belief that crude oil prices would continue to rise well above the $66.53 strike price. If that were to happen and oil prices were to increase to, say, US$80-US$90 per barrel, the Government would be in the delightful position of having to pay only about US$66.53 per barrel for oil that would be trading at the much higher spot price on the international commodity market. The Government of Jamaica, senior executives at the Bank of Jamaica, and members of the oversight and technical committees created by the Government to manage the hedges, all seem to have bought into the belief that oil prices would climb higher than US$67 before the expiry date of the options.

The oversight committee is comprised of the financial secretary, Devon Rowe; the governor of the Bank of Jamaica, Brian Wynter; the managing director of the Development Bank of Jamaica, Milverton Reynolds; the managing director the Petroleum Corporation of Jamaica, Winston Watson; and Dr Vincent Lawrence. Mr Watson is known to have experience in oil trading and markets. Only Michael Hewett, an executive at Petrojam, was named as a member of the technical committee.

Wrong direction

One has to believe that the intention of the members of the government-appointed committees and all of those involved in the hedge transaction was a good one to try and protect Jamaica against that time in the 15-month period when oil prices might spike above US$67. While there is still considerable time to the maturity of the call options, right now the bet is not looking good and the best projections are for oil prices to fall even lower than the below-US$30 they traded at this week.

This week, three important financial institutions released projections indicating that oil prices could fall to US$10-US$20 per barrel and stay there for sometime. Goldman Sachs’ projection was at US$20, Morgan Stanley’s was US$20 and Standard Chartered, a bank with strong roots and connections in the Middle East and Asia, projected US$10 a barrel oil.

In the futures trading business, which is where these call options reside, when an option is bought with the expectation that the price of the commodity will increase but the opposite occurs, the option is said to be ‘underwater’. Given that these options were booked with the expectation for oil price to rise above US$66, and they are now heading in the direction of US$20, Jamaica’s call options on oil are seriously underwater.

A better alternative

In November 2014, a public official asked me about hedging because someone had written him an email to encourage Jamaica to hedge oil transactions on the upside, based on a scenario the email writer concocted about the state of affairs in the international oil industry. The public official was aware that I had traded oil futures for many years and had lived in the Middle East for more than two decades. I share below an excerpt from my reply:

“The recommendation needs study because taking a position means the Government and Jamaica will be guessing the direction of the movement of the price of this commodity. The writer makes it sound like making money on these bets (options) is a sure thing. It is not.

“There is always a risk. Suppose we bet on a certain price increase in a specific time frame, which we would have to if we are going to hedge, and prices instead of rising to, say, US$70/bbl from US$50 falls to US$35/bbl during our hedge horizon, we would suffer an important loss depending on the size of the contract. This is what apparently happened to that forward position Jamaica took on that futures contract on aluminium with the Russians and/or Glencore, the debilitating result of which you are very familiar.

“When oil went to US$9/bbl in the 1990s, if you had dared to tell anyone about the US$147 per barrel price which occurred in July 2008 they would have declared you mad. It’s a commodity; any card can play. On review, if the writer sees the prices as going one way, down, and OPEC is ‘dead’, why hedge? Do nothing, stay addicted to imported oil and go for the lovely ride to low-oil-price nirvana.

“The better alternative is to wean ourselves off the 98 per cent dependence on petroleum-based fossil fuels for our energy supplies. We really need to develop and use renewable energy from many sources, including bagasse, garbage, wind, water and solar.”

Aubyn Hill is CEO of Corporate Strategies Ltd and chairman of the Economic Advisory Council of the leader of the opposition.

The Gleaner

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Local Oil And Gas Exploration Enters Second Phase

January 14, 2016 Webmaster

Yang Xiaorui (left) shows Phillip Paulwell, minister of science, technology, energy and mining, an area of the oil and gas exploration vessel that docked at the Port of Kingston yesterday.

International oil and gas explorers are once again in Jamaican waters with the blessing of the National Environment and Planning Agency (NEPA) and promises to the local fishing community.

This time, the explorers are venturing on a data-collection exercise.

The first exploration company in 10 years to re-energise the search for oil offshore, the United Kingdom-based Tullow Oil has brought the gamut of data-capturing equipment for the second phase of its venture.

“This is a major deal for Jamaica’s oil-and-gas exploration,” asserted Phillip Paulwell, minister of science, technology, energy and mining, during a tour of the vessel, BGP Challenger, yesterday at the Kingston Port.

Paulwell, who was accompanied on the tour by State Minister Julian Robinson, said: “For them to start this work, they had to get approval from NEPA, and they have signed an important agreement with our fisherfolk in the event of any matter for full compensation.”

In November 2014, the Petroleum Corporation of Jamaica (PCJ) signed a production-sharing agreement with Tullow Oil (Jamaica) for oil and gas exploration in Jamaica’s offshore areas.

“We first started (explorations) in the 1980s when the then Government of Jamaica was responsible for funding,” said Paulwell.

He asserted that it has gained momentum with the private sector coming on board with Tullow Oil signing an agreement.

Paulwell told The Gleaner that US$70 million was committed to the project.

“They have so far spent US$10 million, and this exercise will cost them another US$4 million to acquire additional data.”

He added: “Although we are convinced that we have oil and gas in and around Jamaica, we really have to pinpoint the location before drilling can take place.”

He continued: “They have demonstrated a firm commitment, in spite of the fact that the price of oil has plummeted.”

The minister noted that when the agreement was signed 15 months ago, the price of oil was well over US$100 a barrel.

“Today, it is about US$30, but they are still committed, and not only them, since we signed the agreement, others have approached PCJ.”

NEGOTIATIONS ONGOING

Paulwell disclosed that negotiations are ongoing with another major firm.

“Shortly, we are going to sign another agreement,” he said.

“It means that there is a high level of ‘prospectivity’ and there is tremendous confidence in what we have done so far,” he added.

John McKenna, external affairs manager of the London-based Tullow Oil, who has been involved in the project since its onset, said the second phase related to the imaging of the seabed.

“This is the second part, which is the two-dimensional seismic expedition programme.”

He noted that it involves the acquiring of more than 3,000 kilometres of additional data.

“We are focusing initially on the eastern part of the offshore where very little data has been acquired in the past.”

The Gleaner

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Electricity bills getting lighter

January 14, 2016 Webmaster

THE Jamaica Public Service Company (JPS) says its customers will see yet another reduction in bills this month, as the light and power company continues to pass on savings from falling fuel prices.

“This month, customers will see a 4.12 per cent decrease in bills as the Fuel & IPP Charge on bills for January is $10.67 per kilowatt hour (kWh), compared to the charge of $11.83 per kWh applied to December bills. This is the lowest Fuel & IPP Charge since 2005. The total cost per kWh of electricity now stands at 21 US cents or J$25.29, for residential customers,” the JPS said in a release yesterday.

It added: “Therefore, a customer who consistently uses 165 kWh per month will be paying $182.55 less for his bill this month, compared to what he paid last month. This customer will pay $4,252.41 for the 165 kWh of electricity used, as against the $4,434.96 that was paid in December 2015 for the same usage.”

According to the JPS, it has not only passed on savings from the fall in the price of oil on the world market, but has improved efficiencies in the company’s operations.

At the same time, the company has urged customers to use energy wisely, as the final bill amount depends on how much energy is used.

The Observer

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Regulators poised to allow refinery to increase emissions

January 11, 2016 Webmaster

The Marathon refinery in Detroit is shown Monday, January 4, 2016.

Michigan, USA (AP) — Michigan environmental regulators are poised to allow the Marathon refinery in south-west Detroit to increase emissions of at least eight air pollutants.

The state Department of Environmental Quality said it proposes to approve revised permits for refinery modernisation and expansion that would increase emissions of oxides of nitrogen, carbon monoxide, volatile organic compounds, small particulate pollution and sulfuric acid mist.

This, on the heels of the Paris climate talks in December where 195 countries, including the US, agreed to reduce carbon and other greenhouse gas emission with a view to keeping global temperature rise this century well below two degrees Celsius and driving efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

The proposal would increase emissions of sulfur dioxide in an area that the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has designated as being out of compliance with federal air pollution standards, the Detroit Free Press reported, but the agency’s analysis of Marathon’s permit requests notes that the emissions increases all fall within allowable state and federal regulations. The permit requests involve installation of equipment by Marathon to produce lower sulfur gasoline that will meet new EPA standards.

“The project will enable the facility to produce fuels that comply with the EPA regulation by reducing sulfur dioxide emissions from gasoline,” Marathon spokesman Jamal Kheiry said in an e-mail to the Free Press.

Kheiry added that the refinery’s emission levels “will continue to be well below those allowed under its existing permit”. Changes at the facility triggered the DEQ’s permit process.

Four Detroit-area state senators — Coleman Young II, Morris Hood III, Bert Johnson and Vincent Gregory — want the DEQ to reject the permits.

“When we allow our refineries and coal-fired power plants to belch toxic fumes into our neighbourhoods, we set ourselves up for a legacy of poor health and skyrocketing medical bills,” said the lawmakers, all Democrats.

Ray Holland, 60, who has lived in a nearby neighbourhood his whole life, doesn’t like the idea of the proposed changes.

“I think they should leave it like it is — or put more pollution controls on it,” he said of the refinery.

The DEQ plans an information session and public hearing tonight at the River Rouge High School auditorium in nearby River Rouge. The agency plans to consider public comments prior to taking final actions on Marathon’s permit applications.

The Observer

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US Coal Production Falls To Lowest Level In Nearly 30 Years

January 11, 2016 Webmaster

A coal miner works to secure the roof with bolts in an underground coal mine roughly 40-inches-high. Preliminary government figures released Friday show U.S. coal production has fallen to its lowest level in nearly 30 years as cheaper sources of power and stricter environmental regulations reduce demand.

United States (US) coal production has fallen to its lowest level in nearly 30 years as cheaper sources of power and stricter environmental regulations reduce demand, according to preliminary government figures.

A report released last Friday by the US Energy Information Administration estimates that 900 million short tons of coal were produced last year, a drop from about 1 billion short tons in 2014.

That’s the lowest volume since 1986.

The slump has led to bankruptcies and layoffs at mining companies, but the effects have rippled outward, stressing state budgets and forcing layoffs in other sector, such as railroads, which are transporting less coal.

Power plants are increasingly relying on cheaper and cleaner-burning natural gas to provide electricity and comply with regulations aimed at reducing pollution that contributes to climate change.

A sweeping agreement adopted last month in Paris by nearly 200 countries determined to further reduce greenhouse gas emissions is likely to make coal an even less viable choice in the decades ahead.

The Gleaner

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Gov’t Saves $80m In Light Bill

January 11, 2016 Webmaster

In this 2013 photo, Minister of Science, Technology, Energy and Mining Phillip Paulwell (left) and Roy Lafayette, chief executive officer at Geddes Refrigeration Limited, signs a US$2.65-million contract with Geddes Refrigeration Limited for the design, supply and retrofitting of efficient air-conditioning solutions in four State entities.

The Jamaican Government has so far realised savings of $80 million over the past two years under an energy efficiency programme which has been implemented in 40 public-sector facilities.

Dubbed the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Programme (EECP), its general objective is to enhance Jamaica’s energy efficiency and energy conservation. Minister of Science, Technology, Energy and Mining Phillip Paulwell said that the State is now contemplating an expansion.

“We intend to take it much further, we are expanding it,” Paulwell said.

Among the methods employed to boost energy efficiency thus far is the use of film to reflect sunlight from windows, the painting of roofs with white paint to improve cooling, and the changing of lighting fixtures.

The Government has had to pay annual costs of almost $13 billion for electricity used by its entities, and the aim is to reduce the figure by $2 billion with the introduction of several key strategic energy-saving interventions.

The measures were recommended following an audit of the energy use by the public sector, with the overall objective to cut public-sector energy consumption by 30 per cent in 2017.

“The money is being absolutely well spent. I am very proud of this project,” Paulwell said.

This year, the Government is spending $379.8 million on the conservation programme, which is funded by a loan, up from the $310 million spent last year.

A total of $748.8 million is being spent on energy conservation and efficiency programmes this year, up from $599 million last year.

The targets set for this fiscal year include executing two contracts to replace inefficient air-conditioning systems in 11 state institutions at a cost of $254.9 million, and commencing the replacement of inefficient lighting in several public institutions ($77.3 million).

The Jamaica Information Service, which is among the entities that benefited from the programme, is reporting savings of 17.5 per cent per annum on its energy bill.

The Gleaner

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Honey Bun To Invest US$250,000 On Solar Project

January 6, 2016 Webmaster

The Kingston-based bakery Honey Bun Limited is planning to spend US$250,000 to invest in its own 100-kilowatt solar-energy system at its factory in Kingston with the objective of increasing efficiency.

The project is expected to save the company, funded and run by the Chong family, up to 30 per cent on its electricity bill. The company’s strategy is to stagger the solar project over five stages with the first completed in December.

“Honey Bun strives to be more efficient while considering the impact we have on our environment. To that end, we aim to reduce our carbon footprint through Jamaica’s natural solar energy,” according to Chief Operating Officer Daniel Chong.

The company started installing solar panels on the roof of the factory since September 2015, Chong said. In the first phase,

24 kilowatts of inter-connected self-consumption photovoltaic power was installed. This will run concurrently with power supplied by the Jamaica Public Service, in order to increase energy output while lowering cost, he added. The precise timeline for the remaining stages remains undetermined.

“This will be concurrent with the expected build-out of factory space for increased output capacity,” Honey Bun said in response to Wednesday Business queries.

The project is expected to lower the $36 million spent in its 2015 financial year ($38.8 million in 2014) on an expense-line item termed rates, taxes, telephone, fuel and electricity.

Honey Bun’s property, plant and equipment, fair valued at $278 million, remains its largest asset which drives the electricity spend. Honey Bun acquired two properties in the company’s financial year ending September 2014. The acquisitions resulted in $145 million worth of additions to its property, plant and equipment during the 2014 financial year.

The company reportedly bought a 20,000-square foot property that joins its existing operations on Retirement Crescent to another piece it bought in October 2014. Its three properties combined are contiguous at numbers 22, 24 and 26 Retirement Crescent. The properties total some 1.3 acres or 57,000 square feet.

Honey Bun earned $69.9 million in profit from $885 million in sales for its September 2015 year end, compared with $22 million the previous year.

The company manufactures and distributes baked products to the local and export markets. It was listed on the junior market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange in June 2011. The profit rise contributed to the company’s stock jumping from $1.71 to $6.18 over 52 weeks.

The Gleaner

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JPS Signs MOU With Chinese Based Company For 190 MW Plant

January 4, 2016 Webmaster

The Jamaica Public Service has entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with a China-based energy company to build the 190 MW Old Harbour Bay Power Station.

The Chinese company will replace the Spanish firm Abengoa, which filed for protection from creditors a few days after it was named as the preferred bidder for the construction of the power plant.

President and Chief Executive Office of JPS, Kelly Tomblin has said that the name of the company cannot be released due to confidentiality agreements, but that the company was well known in China and within the energy sector.

“JPS, given its continuing concerns for the financial viability and strength of Abengoa and their inability to meet our financial requirements, has moved to enter into an MOU agreement with a Chinese EPC provider,” she told The Gleaner.

Meeting With ESET

She pointed out that the name of the firm and the terms of the deal will be made public once discussions are complete.

Tomblin also indicated that JPS will be meeting with the Energy Sector Enterprise Team (ESET) next week Monday to discuss the new bidder and the finer details of a possible deal between both parties.

“We plan to meet with ESET on Monday afternoon to go through final details, and we will disclose more after that meeting.”

The JPS moved to assure stakeholders that the 190 MW project remains on track for the plant’s commissioning in 2018.

JPS says it was undaunted by the financial woes being faced by Abengoa and would be looking at alternatives.

“Abengoa was selected based on its wide-ranging and impressive technical expertise. The firm has constructed several combined cycle power plants around the world, and is also well known for its construction of renewable energy power plants. JPS also had the understanding that Abengoa’s financiers were committed to the company for the long term,” the company said in a press release.

The Gleaner

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