Amid improving market sentiment and a weakening dollar, the World Bank is raising its 2016 forecast for crude oil prices to $41 per barrel from $37 per barrel in its latest April 2016 Commodity Markets Outlook, as an oversupply in markets is expected to recede.

The crude oil market rebounded from a low of $25 per barrel in mid-January to $40 per barrel in April following production disruptions in Iraq and Nigeria and a decline in non-Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production, mainly US shale.

A proposed production freeze by major producers failed to materialise at a meeting in mid-April, the World Bank said in a release.

“We expect slightly higher prices for energy commodities over the course of the year as markets rebalance after a period of oversupply,” said John Baffes, senior economist and lead author of the April 2016 Commodity Markets Outlook.

“Still, energy prices could fall further if OPEC increases production significantly and non-OPEC production does not fall as fast as expected,” he added.

All main commodity indices tracked by the World Bank are expected to decline in 2016 from the year before due to persistently elevated supplies, and in the case of industrial commodities – which include energy, metals, and agricultural raw materials – weak growth prospects in emerging market and developing economies.

Energy prices, including oil, natural gas and coal, are due to fall 19.3 per cent in 2016 from the previous year, a more gradual drop than the 24.7 per cent slide forecast in January. Non-energy commodities, such as metals and minerals, agriculture and fertilisers, are due to decline 5.1 per cent this year, a downward revision from the 3.7 per cent drop forecast in January, the World Bank said.

COST PROBLEM

According to a March 2016 International Monetary Fund (IMF) working paper titledCaribbean Energy: Macro-related Challenges, the single most important cost problem is the region’s heavy dependence on expensive, imported fossil fuels.

As in the United States, the cost of using petroleum to produce electricity is several times higher than alternative fuels, it said.

Excluding Haiti, biomass represents around 11 per cent of Caribbean energy supply, mostly concentrated in Jamaica, the paper said.

It noted that Jamaica is the second-largest electricity consumer, after Trinidad and Tobago, with aggregate consumption of three billion kilowatt hours in 2012. That represents 32 per cent of total regional electricity consumption, excluding Trinidad and Tobago.

The IMF estimated that the net benefit to Jamaica from a decline in oil prices as a per cent of gross domestic product was four per cent.

 

Gleaner

Screen Shot 2016-02-25 at 17.08.42

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia (AFP) — The Nigerian and Saudi leaders yesterday supported efforts to stabilise the oil market but Africa’s top producer did not commit to a production freeze.

After talks in the Saudi capital Riyadh, Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari and Saudi King Salman “committed themselves to doing all that is possible to stabilise the market and rebound the oil price,” Buhari’s office said in a statement.

Buhari was in Riyadh a week after Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela and Qatar agreed at talks in Doha to freeze production at January levels in a bid to stem the dramatic fall in oil prices.

The agreement is conditional on other major producers joining in, as oil heavyweights seek to ensure others not to take advantage of output limits to win market share.

The statement after yesterday’s talks made no mention of Nigeria joining the freeze but analysts say the OPEC member is likely to eventually support the move.

The official

Saudi Press Agency also reported that talks between Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the Saudi deputy oil minister, and his Nigerian counterpart, junior oil minister Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu, focused on “the best way for (market) stability” and “the cooperation of producing countries inside and outside OPEC” to achieve this.

Saudi Arabia and its gulf allies in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries had been refusing to limit or reduce production, leading to a supply glut that has seen prices fall by 70 per cent since mid-2014.

Poorer OPEC members, including Nigeria, have been hard hit by the price drop but even the wealthy Gulf states have been forced to adopt austerity measures to cope with falling oil revenues.

“I wouldn’t be surprised to see them voice their support to the freeze agreed in Doha,” Abhishek Deshpande, lead oil market analyst at Natixis in London, said of Nigeria.

But he said that unless Iraq and Iran also commit to limit production such talks “carry very little weight”.

The two countries are OPEC’s second- and third-largest producers.

Iran, returning to world markets as sanctions are lifted under its nuclear deal, has insisted on boosting production to pre-sanctions levels.

“Some neighbouring countries have increased their production over the years to 10 million barrels per day and export this amount, then say let’s all freeze our oil production,” Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said yesterday.

“They freeze production at 10 million bpd and we freeze at 1 million bpd. This is a very funny joke.”

Saxo Bank analyst Christopher Dembik told

AFP that Nigeria’s position is “a bit ambiguous,” supporting the mooted freeze but at the same time wanting to increase its production to respond to domestic market needs.

Nigeria could be crucial

“In the longer term, there is no reason why the country won’t align itself with the position of Saudi Arabia and Russia,” Dembik said.

Nigeria and Saudi Arabia would also discuss their position towards Iran and Iraq, he added.

“Nigeria could have a crucial role in this respect because of its measured position” that Iran and Iraq should elevate their production before envisaging freezes, Dembik said.

“It is probable, then, that Nigeria meanwhile establishes a bridge for negotiations, notably between Riyadh and Tehran.”

According to OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report, Iraq produces about 4.4 million barrels a day, followed by Iran at more than 2.9 million.

Saudi Arabia’s output is close to 10.1 million barrels a day, according to January data.

Kachikwu, who is head of Nigeria’s state-run oil firm, also discussed joint oil and gas investments during his meeting with Abdulaziz, SPA reported.

Oil prices nudged higher Tuesday as the two OPEC members met.

US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in April was up one cent at US$33.40 a barrel. Brent North Sea crude for April rose 18 cents to US$34.87 compared with Monday’s close.

After the Saudi visit, the Nigerian delegation was to travel to Qatar for more oil talks.

Jamaica Observer

Oil powerhouses Russia and Saudi Arabia joined Qatar and Venezuela in pledging Tuesday to cap their crude output if other producers do the same, aiming to halt a slide that has pushed oil prices to their lowest point in more than a decade.

The decision followed an unexpected closed-door meeting involving the four countries in the Qatari capital, Doha, and reflects growing concern among big producers about the effects the slump poses to their domestic economies.

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said in a statement issued after the meeting that the four countries would be ready to cap production based on last month’s output levels if others join.

“We are ready to maintain, on average in 2016, the level of oil production of January 2016 and not exceed it,” he said in a subsequent statement.

Whether the plan is enough to put a floor under prices is uncertain. The proposal depends on cooperation from a range of producers with differing budget priorities all scrambling for market share since prices began falling in summer 2014.

Among the hardest to bring on board will likely be Iran. It was noticeably absent from Tuesday’s gathering even though it shares control of a major underwater natural gasfield with fellow OPEC member Qatar.

Iran is eager to ramp up its exports now that sanctions related to its nuclear programme have been lifted, saying recently it aims to put another 500,000 barrels a day on the market. Figures from the International Energy Agency show that it pumped 2.9 million barrels daily in December, before sanctions were lifted.

Iran’s petroleum minister, Bijar Namdar Zangeneh, signalLed the Islamic Republic has no intention of giving up its share of the market. He acknowledged that global markets are “oversupplied,” but said Iran “will not overlook its quota,” according to comments carried by his ministry’s Shana news service.

Venezuelan Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino heads to Tehran next for talks with his Iranian and Iraqi counterparts today, Wednesday.

“The key OPEC members that need to take part are Iran and Iraq, where the big increases are likely this year, but there are big doubts over whether this can be achieved,” Barclays analysts Miswin Mahesh and Kevin Norrish said in a research note.

Efforts to make the plan work are complicated by deep levels of distrust between regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran, which has built close ties to Iraq’s government in the years since the 2003 US-led invasion.

The two countries are in opposing camps in regional disputes from Yemen to Syria. Last month, Sunni-ruled Saudi Arabia cut diplomatic ties with Shiite powerhouse Iran after the Saudi embassy and a consulate were torched by Iranian protesters angry over the kingdom’s execution of a prominent Shiite cleric.

Speaking to reporters after the meeting, Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi said producers would continue to assess the state of the market in the months ahead. He described freezing output at January levels as an “adequate” step for now.

All of the countries at Tuesday’s meeting, except Russia, are part of OPEC. Saudi Arabia dominates policymaking within the 13-member bloc of oil-producing countries, which has refused to cut its official production targets. Doing so could bolster faltering prices.

The aim of OPEC’s keep-pumping strategy has been to attempt to ride out the 12-year lows in prices and force higher-cost producers, including shale drillers in the US, out of the market.

The bloc collectively pumped 39 million barrels of crude and natural gas liquids a day in December, or about two out of every five barrels globally. Russia pumps around 11 million barrels a day.

After rising soon after the meeting, a barrel of benchmark New York crude was trading down 35 cents at US$29.09 by midmorning in New York. A barrel of Brent, the international standard, fell 59 cents to US$33.42.

The Gleaner

Speaking during an oil and gas exploration tour of the vessel BGP Challenger, at the Kingston Harbour yesterday, Phillip Paulwell said this is an indication of the confidence being shown that Jamaica has gas or oil in its territory.

Minister of Science, Technology, Energy and Mining, Phillip Paulwell has welcomed the second phase of an exploration programme being undertaken by Tullow Oil out of the United Kingdom.

In November 2014, the Government of Jamaica through the Petroleum Corporation of Jamaica (PCJ) signed a production Sharing Agreement with Tullow Jamaica Limited for water and gas exploration in the island’s offshore areas.

Under the agreement, Tullow has been undertaking seismic surveys in the waters off Jamaica’s south coast.

For next three weeks, Tullow will be engaged in a comprehensive data collection exercise.

Speaking during an oil and gas exploration tour of the vessel BGP Challenger, at the Kingston Harbour yesterday, Paulwell said this is an indication of the confidence being shown that Jamaica has gas or oil in its territory.

The Gleaner

THE Government, after more than 10 years trying to divest the Petroleum Company of Jamaica Limited (Petcom), has set up an enterprise team for the privatisation of the entity.

“Mr Erwin Jones, chairman of Petrojam, will lead this team. We are currently having a valuation of the company’s assets done and we will announce more as information becomes available,” Energy Minister Phillip Paulwell told Parliament yesterday during his contribution to the 2013/14 Budget Debate at Gordon House in Kingston.

Petcom has a service station network of some 28 stations in Jamaica

 

Paulwell, arguing that Petcom has been a strategic asset in the petroleum marketing sector, said he hoped that the entity would remain a strong player in the market. “Again, I encourage local investors to participate in the ownership of this important Jamaican asset,” the minister told the House.

Petcom

A lockdown of the local petroleum sector is looming as furious industry stakeholders intensify calls for Energy Minister Phillip Paulwell to intervene and plug gaping holes which they say are making their survival increasingly difficult.

The peeved stakeholders include petroleum tanker drivers, haulage contractors and service station operators, all of whom point fingers at petroleum marketing companies, which they claim are walking away with huge profits while the rest of the sector struggles as a result of policies they have imposed.

 

It is against this background that the stakeholders are joining forces to lobby the Government to introduce legislation which they feel will create a level playing field.

Their concerns have heightened in the wake of recent moves by one marketing company to terminate the contracts of several service stations which reportedly failed to meet performance targets it had set.

The threats of closure sent shockwaves through the petroleum retail sector and resulted in several meetings involving the Jamaica Gasolene Retailers Association (JGRA). Out of those discussions came plans to implement a wide range of cost-cutting measures in order for them to remain afloat. The termination of the jobs of scores of pump attendants and other workers was among them.

It is a last resort for JGRA President Trevor Heaven, but he said it will be inevitable if the Government fails to address serious anomalies relating to the policies of the marketing companies.

“We don’t want to raise prices; in fact, we can’t. And we don’t want to dislocate our employees, but we need equitable margins to take into account factors such as shrinkage (evaporation of a portion of the product),” he told the Jamaica Observer.

Shrinkage, according to one industry expert, normally occurs in the transportation of fuel from one location to another, or in the process of filling up at service stations.

Another issue with which the sector grapples, added Heaven, was that service station operators who lease properties from marketing companies, and who seek to diversify their income, are faced with strong resistance.

“The marketers should allow retailers to use the facilities to explore other income-generating activities. The moment you decide to go into a tyre sale venture or any other service on the property, you are told how much you will need to pay,” Heaven said, describing the lease agreements as onerous.

“We have never seen this level of fallout before, and it speaks to the fact that the business itself is becoming more and more challenging,” said Heaven, who told the Observer that he would be meeting with other aggrieved stakeholders before approaching the energy minister.

For Corporate Area service station operator Dwight Moore, the blame lays at the feet of successive political administrations which have failed to nip the problem in the bud by introducing legislation to level the playing field.

“We want a win-win situation, because we understand that they (the marketing companies) made an investment when they decided to come to Jamaica, and we fully appreciate the need for them to capitalise on that investment. However, the existing legislation favours them, as they are able to set margins without sharing any of their benefits with service station operators. We get the product at near commercial rates and then have to resell, despite us bearing the brunt of costs associated with product shrinkage, security, etc. These costs erode what you make on the product. What we need is equity,” Moore declared.

Despite several efforts, the Observer was unable to speak with representatives of two of the major marketing companies operating in the country.

Energy Minister Paulwell was also unavailable as he was said to be off the island. However, a senior official of the Ministry of Science, Technology, Energy, and Mining acknowledged that the ministry was aware of the charges against the marketing companies.

According to the officer, a comprehensive review of the local petroleum retail sector has been completed, and will lead to a raft of changes relating to issues such as safety, transparency and competitiveness.

The technocrat explained that the measures will also result in the creation of a level playing field for all the stakeholders, including haulage contractors, tanker drivers and the petroleum marketing companies. The Observer was also told that the proposed measures, some of which are likely to be legislated, are in keeping with the overall thrust to modernise the local petroleum sector.

Read more:

A lockdown of the local petroleum sector is looming as furious industry stakeholders intensify calls for Energy Minister Phillip Paulwell to intervene and plug gaping holes which they say are making their survival increasingly difficult.

The peeved stakeholders include petroleum tanker drivers, haulage contractors and service station operators, all of whom point fingers at petroleum marketing companies, which they claim are walking away with huge profits while the rest of the sector struggles as a result of policies they have imposed.

 

It is against this background that the stakeholders are joining forces to lobby the Government to introduce legislation which they feel will create a level playing field.

Their concerns have heightened in the wake of recent moves by one marketing company to terminate the contracts of several service stations which reportedly failed to meet performance targets it had set.

The threats of closure sent shockwaves through the petroleum retail sector and resulted in several meetings involving the Jamaica Gasolene Retailers Association (JGRA). Out of those discussions came plans to implement a wide range of cost-cutting measures in order for them to remain afloat. The termination of the jobs of scores of pump attendants and other workers was among them.

It is a last resort for JGRA President Trevor Heaven, but he said it will be inevitable if the Government fails to address serious anomalies relating to the policies of the marketing companies.

“We don’t want to raise prices; in fact, we can’t. And we don’t want to dislocate our employees, but we need equitable margins to take into account factors such as shrinkage (evaporation of a portion of the product),” he told the Jamaica Observer.

Shrinkage, according to one industry expert, normally occurs in the transportation of fuel from one location to another, or in the process of filling up at service stations.

Another issue with which the sector grapples, added Heaven, was that service station operators who lease properties from marketing companies, and who seek to diversify their income, are faced with strong resistance.

“The marketers should allow retailers to use the facilities to explore other income-generating activities. The moment you decide to go into a tyre sale venture or any other service on the property, you are told how much you will need to pay,” Heaven said, describing the lease agreements as onerous.

“We have never seen this level of fallout before, and it speaks to the fact that the business itself is becoming more and more challenging,” said Heaven, who told the Observer that he would be meeting with other aggrieved stakeholders before approaching the energy minister.

For Corporate Area service station operator Dwight Moore, the blame lays at the feet of successive political administrations which have failed to nip the problem in the bud by introducing legislation to level the playing field.

“We want a win-win situation, because we understand that they (the marketing companies) made an investment when they decided to come to Jamaica, and we fully appreciate the need for them to capitalise on that investment. However, the existing legislation favours them, as they are able to set margins without sharing any of their benefits with service station operators. We get the product at near commercial rates and then have to resell, despite us bearing the brunt of costs associated with product shrinkage, security, etc. These costs erode what you make on the product. What we need is equity,” Moore declared.

Despite several efforts, the Observer was unable to speak with representatives of two of the major marketing companies operating in the country.

Energy Minister Paulwell was also unavailable as he was said to be off the island. However, a senior official of the Ministry of Science, Technology, Energy, and Mining acknowledged that the ministry was aware of the charges against the marketing companies.

According to the officer, a comprehensive review of the local petroleum retail sector has been completed, and will lead to a raft of changes relating to issues such as safety, transparency and competitiveness.

The technocrat explained that the measures will also result in the creation of a level playing field for all the stakeholders, including haulage contractors, tanker drivers and the petroleum marketing companies. The Observer was also told that the proposed measures, some of which are likely to be legislated, are in keeping with the overall thrust to modernise the local petroleum sector.

Read more:

A lockdown of the local petroleum sector is looming as furious industry stakeholders intensify calls for Energy Minister Phillip Paulwell to intervene and plug gaping holes which they say are making their survival increasingly difficult.

The peeved stakeholders include petroleum tanker drivers, haulage contractors and service station operators, all of whom point fingers at petroleum marketing companies, which they claim are walking away with huge profits while the rest of the sector struggles as a result of policies they have imposed.

 

It is against this background that the stakeholders are joining forces to lobby the Government to introduce legislation which they feel will create a level playing field.

Their concerns have heightened in the wake of recent moves by one marketing company to terminate the contracts of several service stations which reportedly failed to meet performance targets it had set.

The threats of closure sent shockwaves through the petroleum retail sector and resulted in several meetings involving the Jamaica Gasolene Retailers Association (JGRA). Out of those discussions came plans to implement a wide range of cost-cutting measures in order for them to remain afloat. The termination of the jobs of scores of pump attendants and other workers was among them.

It is a last resort for JGRA President Trevor Heaven, but he said it will be inevitable if the Government fails to address serious anomalies relating to the policies of the marketing companies.

“We don’t want to raise prices; in fact, we can’t. And we don’t want to dislocate our employees, but we need equitable margins to take into account factors such as shrinkage (evaporation of a portion of the product),” he told the Jamaica Observer.

Shrinkage, according to one industry expert, normally occurs in the transportation of fuel from one location to another, or in the process of filling up at service stations.

Another issue with which the sector grapples, added Heaven, was that service station operators who lease properties from marketing companies, and who seek to diversify their income, are faced with strong resistance.

“The marketers should allow retailers to use the facilities to explore other income-generating activities. The moment you decide to go into a tyre sale venture or any other service on the property, you are told how much you will need to pay,” Heaven said, describing the lease agreements as onerous.

“We have never seen this level of fallout before, and it speaks to the fact that the business itself is becoming more and more challenging,” said Heaven, who told the Observer that he would be meeting with other aggrieved stakeholders before approaching the energy minister.

For Corporate Area service station operator Dwight Moore, the blame lays at the feet of successive political administrations which have failed to nip the problem in the bud by introducing legislation to level the playing field.

“We want a win-win situation, because we understand that they (the marketing companies) made an investment when they decided to come to Jamaica, and we fully appreciate the need for them to capitalise on that investment. However, the existing legislation favours them, as they are able to set margins without sharing any of their benefits with service station operators. We get the product at near commercial rates and then have to resell, despite us bearing the brunt of costs associated with product shrinkage, security, etc. These costs erode what you make on the product. What we need is equity,” Moore declared.

Despite several efforts, the Observer was unable to speak with representatives of two of the major marketing companies operating in the country.

Energy Minister Paulwell was also unavailable as he was said to be off the island. However, a senior official of the Ministry of Science, Technology, Energy, and Mining acknowledged that the ministry was aware of the charges against the marketing companies.

According to the officer, a comprehensive review of the local petroleum retail sector has been completed, and will lead to a raft of changes relating to issues such as safety, transparency and competitiveness.

The technocrat explained that the measures will also result in the creation of a level playing field for all the stakeholders, including haulage contractors, tanker drivers and the petroleum marketing companies. The Observer was also told that the proposed measures, some of which are likely to be legislated, are in keeping with the overall thrust to modernise the local petroleum sector.

Read more: