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Sound Info Can Prepare Ja For Impact Of Climate Change

March 28, 2016 Webmaster

The increased availability of timely climate and weather information will position Jamaica to become more resilient to climate change impacts and improve development across key sectors such as health, agriculture and tourism. This was the consensus of experts at a forum and exhibition which was held in recognition of the 2016 World Meteorological Day, under the theme ‘Hotter, Drier, Wetter. Face the Future’, on Wednesday at The Knutsford Court Hotel, New Kingston.

“There is no doubt that future strategies to deal with climate change will depend upon sound knowledge of past and present climate in our nation and in our region”, Daryl Vaz, minister without portfolio in the Ministry of Economic Growth and Job Creation, disclosed.

A panel discussion, chaired by Professor Michael Taylor, director of the climate studies, University of the West Indies, Mona, brought home the potentially disastrous impact of climate change fallout on the activities of Jamaicans. Medical epidemiologist from the Ministry of Health, Sherine Huntley-Jones, discussed the impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases and explained that “even in prolonged periods of drought, we are expected to see an increase in vector-borne diseases as persons are going to be storing water, which will lead to an increase in breeding sites”.

Jacqueline Spence of the Meteorological Service of Jamaica introduced the fire-danger rating index being developed for the country, which will indicate the preconditions that would increase the likelihood for the occurrence of forest (bush) fires. Emeleo Ebanks, chief fire prevention officer at the Jamaica Fire Brigade, acknowledged the relevance of the fire-danger rating index and indicated that this tool, coupled with public education campaign, would be effective in minimising the incidents of forest fires.

Presenters Glenroy Brown and Dr Arpita Mandal, respectively, discussed climate services and products available for agriculture planning and management, and future implications for land use and economic planning in low-lying areas based on climate models.

The forum brought to the fore one of the strategies the Ja REEACH II, in collaboration with the Meteorological Service and other Government of Jamaica partners, will undertake to advance the availability and quality of climate data to be utilised across key sectors.

Gleaner

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Trinidad Confronting Major Shock From Fall In Oil Prices — IMF

March 21, 2016 Webmaster

Trinidad & Tobago is confronting a major shock with the sharp fall in energy prices that accelerated early this year.

In a statement following the conclusion of a mission from the International Monetary Fund earlier this year, head of the IMF mission Elie Canetti said that based on available information, including that of job losses and continued supply-side constraints in the energy sector, Trinidad’s economy is expected to contract one per cent this year.

The mission also said that declines in energy-based revenues will constrain the government’s ability to act as an engine of growth.

Still: “With substantial financial buffers and low, albeit rising levels of public debt, Trinidad and Tobago is not in a crisis. Nonetheless, in recent years, taking into account the size of energy revenue windfalls, the country has under-saved and underinvested in its future,” the IMF said.

“As a consequence, the imbalances that are now starting to build up could lead the country to uncomfortable levels of debt and external financial cushions absent further action. The new Government agrees that policy adjustments are needed.”

The fund noted that in the half-year since they took office, the Keith Rowley-led administration has already taken “some difficult but necessary steps”, such as widening the value tax base, cutting fuel subsidies, and cutting the number of ministries.

BUDGET DEFICIT

Despite these measures, the IMF said it projects a 2016 Budget deficit at some 11 per cent of GDP. However, if asset sales were to be counted as revenue rather than financing, the deficit would be equivalent to about five per cent of GDP, it said.

“Continued projected deficits of this size call for further fiscal consolidation, perhaps of around 6 per cent of GDP over the next few years,” said the multilateral agency.

Trinidad has agreed to conduct a wide-ranging expenditure review, and will seek the assistance of the World Bank to rationalise and reverse the unsustainable increases in spending on transfers and subsidies over the last several years.

“We support the Government’s intent to conduct a national dialogue on fuel subsidies with a view to phasing them out over time,” said the fund. “The country’s external situation has been very challenging. Against a backdrop of foreign exchange shortages that have intensified since the beginning of 2015, the recent sharp falls in energy prices are further reducing the available supply.”

During the recent visit, the mission met with government officials, banks, and private-sector representatives to assess the foreign exchange market. The fund noted that the current shortage appears to be driven by business uncertainty but also speculative trades.

“While it is appropriate that the central bank paused in its interest rate hiking cycle in January, there is little scope, as the bank agrees, to cut interest rates, at least until shortages of foreign exchange are ameliorated,” the IMF said.

Gleaner

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New Fortress Secures LNG Ship For Jamaica Project

March 4, 2016 Webmaster

The JPS power station at Bogue, Montego Bay, which is being converted to run on LNG.

New Fortress Energy, the company seeking to supply liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Jamaica, has secured a two-year contract for an LNG vessel and is to start shipping gas this month.

Golar LNG Limited, a Bermuda-registered company which operates the vessel Golar Artic, revealed the contract details to its investors.

“Golar has now concluded a two-year charter agreement with New Fortress Energy Transport Partners LLC (NFE) for the employment of Golar Arctic in Jamaica,” said Golar its statements obtained by the Financial Gleaner.

New Fortress has an agreement with Jamaica Public Service Company (JPS) to supply gas to its 120MW power plant at Bogue in Montego Bay, a contract New Fortress will service via gas infrastructure under development at the Montego Bay port. JPS has been mum on the price at which the gas will be supplied to Bogue.

The American company is also expected to develop gas infrastructure and supply JPS’ Old Harbour plant with LNG once it is built, but those negotiations continue.

Bogue is currently being converted to run on gas as well as diesel oil, the fuel on which it was originally commissioned in 2003. General Electric is doing the retrofitting under a US$22.74-million contract from JPS. Bogue will become a combined-cycle plant, capable of switching between gas and diesel.

New Fortress Energy assumes the costs for delivering gas to the burner tip. JPS has no stake in the gas infrastructure project.

New Fortress’ ambition Golar said the deal it has with New Fortress solves a long-standing problem regarding the cost of regasification, and that it fits with New Fortress’ ambition to become a regional supplier of LNG to Caribbean countries.

“Jamaica has long sought to replace liquid fuels with LNG, however, the size of the market has always made it difficult to justify the cost of a conventional floating storage and regasification unit,” said the fuel shipping company.

“New Fortress have now solved this challenge by utilising ship-to-ship transfer of LNG from Golar Arctic on to smaller LNG carriers to service a number of locations within the country of Jamaica.”

Golar Arctic is scheduled to load the first LNG cargo in support of this new business “during March 2016”. Golar and New Fortress believe this new approach to delivering LNG to niche markets has wide application within the Caribbean and other similar markets around the world, stated Golar.

“New Fortress have, with their entrepreneurial approach to business development, shown that downstream LNG markets can be developed within a much shorter time frame than is customary. Similar fast-track solutions will be essential if consumers are to benefit from the large incremental volumes of LNG that will be delivered to market over the next three-four years,” stated Golar.

The Financial Gleaner sought a project update from both JPS and New Fortress, but none came up to press time.

Golar LNG this week reported a fourth-quarter adjusted operating loss of US$35.9 million.

The Gleaner

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Jamaica To Do Its Share Of Climate Change Mitigation

March 3, 2016 Webmaster

Jamaica is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by the equivalent of 1.1 million metric tons of carbon dioxide per year by 2030 as part of its global commitment to take climate change mitigation action.

To bring this about, the island – as reflected in its nine-page Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) document to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change – has undertaken to implement energy policies that ensure that the island uses energy wisely and aggressively to pursue opportunities for conservation and efficiency has a modernised and expanded energy infrastructure that enhances energy-generation capacity and ensures that energy supplies are safely, reliably, and affordably transported to homes, communities, and the productive sectors on a sustainable basis, and achieves its energy resource potential through the development of renewable energy sources by increasing their share in its primary energy mix of 20 per cent by 2030.

Such policies are also to ensure that government agencies and ministries are models and leaders in energy conservation and environmental stewardship and that the island has a well-defined and established governance, institutional, legal, and regulatory framework.

Private Industry Support

Fully implemented energy polices need, too, to ensure that private industry embraces “efficiency and ecological stewardship to advance international competitiveness and to move towards a green economy”, the document said.

Realising Nationally Determined Contributions is essential if the target of the climate deal, brokered in Paris in December, is to be reached.

That agreement – to which Jamaica is a party – looks to hold “the increase in the global average temperatures to well below two degrees above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels”.

New Activities

It is against this background that Jamaica is continuing its own mitigation efforts.

“Certain new activities have started up again under the memorandum of understanding we had with the Americans, for example, particularly around natural gas, that will allow us to have much more efficient plants …” a source from the Ministry of Water, Land, Environment, and Climate Change told The Gleaner at the start of the year.

“Natural gas generation, generally speaking, can be made to respond very well to changes in demand … . For example, if you have a solar plant and production dips, it is relatively easy for you to ramp up the production of electricity from a natural gas plant,” the source added.

There are also other efforts afoot.

“Recognising that energy is not just electricity, it is also transport, some of the work we will be doing in respect of sector planning will involve a closer look at transportation and transportation efficiency and how we can reduce the amount of oil consumed there,” the source noted.

Further, to achieve 20 per cent renewables in the island’s energy mix, the source said, “You can increase the amount of renewables or decrease the amount of other fuels in the mix. There, you are talking efficiency measures and the Government is looking at efficiency in a number of respects.”

The Gleaner

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Four Oil Producers Offer To Freeze Oil Output

February 17, 2016 Webmaster

Oil powerhouses Russia and Saudi Arabia joined Qatar and Venezuela in pledging Tuesday to cap their crude output if other producers do the same, aiming to halt a slide that has pushed oil prices to their lowest point in more than a decade.

The decision followed an unexpected closed-door meeting involving the four countries in the Qatari capital, Doha, and reflects growing concern among big producers about the effects the slump poses to their domestic economies.

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said in a statement issued after the meeting that the four countries would be ready to cap production based on last month’s output levels if others join.

“We are ready to maintain, on average in 2016, the level of oil production of January 2016 and not exceed it,” he said in a subsequent statement.

Whether the plan is enough to put a floor under prices is uncertain. The proposal depends on cooperation from a range of producers with differing budget priorities all scrambling for market share since prices began falling in summer 2014.

Among the hardest to bring on board will likely be Iran. It was noticeably absent from Tuesday’s gathering even though it shares control of a major underwater natural gasfield with fellow OPEC member Qatar.

Iran is eager to ramp up its exports now that sanctions related to its nuclear programme have been lifted, saying recently it aims to put another 500,000 barrels a day on the market. Figures from the International Energy Agency show that it pumped 2.9 million barrels daily in December, before sanctions were lifted.

Iran’s petroleum minister, Bijar Namdar Zangeneh, signalLed the Islamic Republic has no intention of giving up its share of the market. He acknowledged that global markets are “oversupplied,” but said Iran “will not overlook its quota,” according to comments carried by his ministry’s Shana news service.

Venezuelan Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino heads to Tehran next for talks with his Iranian and Iraqi counterparts today, Wednesday.

“The key OPEC members that need to take part are Iran and Iraq, where the big increases are likely this year, but there are big doubts over whether this can be achieved,” Barclays analysts Miswin Mahesh and Kevin Norrish said in a research note.

Efforts to make the plan work are complicated by deep levels of distrust between regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran, which has built close ties to Iraq’s government in the years since the 2003 US-led invasion.

The two countries are in opposing camps in regional disputes from Yemen to Syria. Last month, Sunni-ruled Saudi Arabia cut diplomatic ties with Shiite powerhouse Iran after the Saudi embassy and a consulate were torched by Iranian protesters angry over the kingdom’s execution of a prominent Shiite cleric.

Speaking to reporters after the meeting, Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi said producers would continue to assess the state of the market in the months ahead. He described freezing output at January levels as an “adequate” step for now.

All of the countries at Tuesday’s meeting, except Russia, are part of OPEC. Saudi Arabia dominates policymaking within the 13-member bloc of oil-producing countries, which has refused to cut its official production targets. Doing so could bolster faltering prices.

The aim of OPEC’s keep-pumping strategy has been to attempt to ride out the 12-year lows in prices and force higher-cost producers, including shale drillers in the US, out of the market.

The bloc collectively pumped 39 million barrels of crude and natural gas liquids a day in December, or about two out of every five barrels globally. Russia pumps around 11 million barrels a day.

After rising soon after the meeting, a barrel of benchmark New York crude was trading down 35 cents at US$29.09 by midmorning in New York. A barrel of Brent, the international standard, fell 59 cents to US$33.42.

The Gleaner

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Using Oil, LNG Might Negligibly Affect Electricity Prices – JPS

February 17, 2016 Webmaster

The Jamaica Public Service Company (JPS) says it is unable to definitively state how the use of both automotive diesel oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) at the Bogue power plant in St James will impact the price of electricity to consumers.

It said the power plant currently burns on automotive diesel oil “and we are doing a conversion that adds the capability to also burn natural gas. So we will end up with the ability to burn both fuels at no extra cost”.

Responding to Wednesday Business queries about the rationale for the dual-fuel facility, the JPS said natural gas will be the primary fuel on which the plant operates and automotive diesel oil will be a back-up fuel “in case we have any problems with receiving natural gas”.

It added that under normal conditions, the plant will effectively be a gas-fired power plant.

IMPACTON ELECTRICITY PRICES

As to how it will impact the price of electricity the JPS said in emailed responses that “we cannot speak to the likely impact on electricity prices given the uncertainty of prices in the future (for oil vs LNG)”.

However, it said that the impact is expected to be negligible given that Bogue only represents approximately 10 per cent of the company’s total costs.

“What we can say with fairly good certainty is that the cost of electricity today is 30 per cent lower than it was one year ago, and we expect that trend to continue throughout 2016, given that 80 per cent of our net generation (production) will still be based on oil, 10 per cent will be from natural gas, and we expect renewables to make up 10 per cent of our net generation once the three renewable energy projects currently under construction (for circa 80 megwatts) are completed before the end of 2016.”

The JPS, an integrated electric utility company and the sole distributor of electricity in Jamaica, added that “that means we continue doing a good job as a country of increasing the penetration of renewable, while also diversifying our fuel mix and reducing our overexposure to oil”.

It said that it is hoping to continue doing more of that through the 37 megawatts of renewables currently being pursued by the Office of Utilities Regulation through a request for proposal, as well as its 190 megawatt gas-fired power plant that will be commissioned in mid-2018.

IMPROVING COMPETITIVENESS

Reducing the cost of electricity is critical to improve competitiveness, according to the International Monetary Fund’s latest updated memorandum of economic and financial policies.

It said that the action plan prepared by the Electricity Sector Enterprise Team foresees replacing current oil-fired generation capacity with gas, coal and ethane-fired plants to achieve significant cost savings.

Next steps will include the conversion of the Bogue power station from oil to gas, a process which the JPS is currently undertaking.

In addition, said the memorandum, the Government has approved the construction of Jamaica’s first natural gas-fired power plant, a 190-megawatt facility to be built and operated by JPS, and to be completed by 2018. Several renewable energy projects are also under way.

The Government said it will prepare a plan to ensure that all public entities – central government, local government and public bodies – meet their financial obligations in a timely manner.

In the memorandum, the Government also pointed out that urgent actions will be taken to reduce the time needed for entrepreneurs to get an electricity connection. Plans foresee the automation of the work processes within the government electrical regulator and the acquisition of an Application Management and Data Automation (AMANDA) software to streamline procedures for scheduling, inspecting, approving and certifying electrical installations.

An action plan for implementation of the reforms and adoption of the AMANDA system are expected to be completed in fiscal year 2016/17, with support from the Inter-American Development Bank.

The Gleaner

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JPS writes off $100m of electricity bills

February 8, 2016 Webmaster

Kelly Tomblin, president and CEO of JPS.

Jamaica Public Service Company (JPS) said it wrote off $100 million in debt owed by residential and commercial customers for electricity under its year-end amnesty programme.

It offered customers the opportunity to start the new year at least partially debt free.

The power utility also said it continues to work with the Government, through the Ministry of Finance, to ensure payment for street lights on a timely basis.

In introducing the amnesty, which ran from November to December 2015, JPS said it had identified critical cases where some of its customers’ debts to the light and power provider had accumulated so significantly over time that they had been classified as bad debt.

However, for customers who wanted to regularise their accounts and in some cases restore their electricity, JPS gave residential rate 10 and commercial rate 20 customers an opportunity to negotiate up to 70 per cent debt forgiveness.

Persons qualified to apply were those owing in excess of $50,000 at August 2015 and had their service disconnected; as well as residential and small commercial customers who owed more than $100,000 up to August, but whose accounts were still active.

Last Friday, JPS President and Chief Executive Officer Kelly Tomblin, addressing a media briefing at the company’s offices in New Kingston, said more than 1,000 account holders benefited from the amnesty.

STREET LIGHT REPAIRS ONGOING

As for the issue of defective street lights, Tomblin said repairs were ongoing, while acknowledging that the utility got daily complaints.

JPS has about 100,000 street lights and last year the company replaced 27,700 of them, an average of 514 per week.

“We are replacing street lights, hundreds and hundreds every week, so it’s not that JPS isn’t aware…”, she said.

Against that background, Tomblin said: “There are two things that are going on that we have to fix.

“We are working with the Government right now to find a way for us to get paid more promptly,” she said. “I have a commitment by the minister of finance. We work with him all the time. We all know that we have a lot of different obligations and a lot of different challenges to meet and we do know today that we are working on solutions to run our street lights on, for instance, LED.”

At the same time, she said the company has to be careful how much it invests in the current solution “if we are going to have this three to four year plan to replace them.”

She acknowledged the issue is, for some, one of security, but said the street light problem is compounded by theft.

“With the level of electricity theft, we will never have first-class street lights … we cannot have street lights operating if we have a couple of hundred people stealing,” the utility boss said.

JPS is manager of the national grid and monopoly distributor of electricity supplies. The utility collects around $100 billion per year in billings.

The Gleaner

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PSOJ Backs Oil Hedge Strategy

February 3, 2016 Webmaster

The Private Sector Organisation of Jamaica (PSOJ) says it is in the country’s best interest to further hedge against the upward movement in the price of oil, a strategy the Government first adopted in June last year.

The hedge purchased by Jamaica last year at a strike price of US$66 has come in for criticism because oil prices are currently falling, and analysts are predicting further decreases this year.

However, PSOJ president William Mahfood said if the world crude prices remain low for an extended period, the options to buy will also be reduced and gives Jamaica an opportunity to hedge at concomitantly lower prices.

“We feel strongly that if the strike prices are attractive and if prices are maintained at these lower levels that it is in the country’s best interest to buy that insurance policy going forward,” Mahfood told Wednesday Business.

Asked if the PSOJ would encourage the Government to negotiate any differently in entering into such contracts, Mahfood, while noting that “it’s really a function of time, and it’s a question of volatility,” emphasised that “if oil prices remain low for an extended period of time, what you will find is that the option prices will come down, and if those prices come down further, it will definitely be in the country’s interest for us to hedge further”.

While some projections are for prices to fall to US$20, Mahfood said that no one knows exactly where they will end up.

“The best analysts in the world will tell you that the oil price might be a US$53 in December or it might be at US$100.”

He said the PSOJ feels strongly about maintaining some sort of stability in terms of the prices, given what the impact the lower costs have had on the economy in terms of energy which has, for example, resulted in lower electricity bills for both households and manufacturers.

In a release on Monday, the PSOJ said it has taken note of commentary on the oil hedge strategy Jamaica effected last year by purchasing options to buy eight million barrels of oil, representing about half the country’s annual requirement, at a price of US$66 per barrel.

The total cost of the option, which became effective in June 2015 and expires September this year, was approximately US$20 million.

One argument, the PSOJ said, was that the hedge was a waste of money as oil prices have fallen to US$30 per barrel, and the strike price, where Jamaica would have started to benefit, is US$66 per barrel.

The PSOJ noted that projections last year were for oil prices to recover in 2016 with most expecting it to go past US$66 per barrel and settling at around US$80 per barrel, which at 17 million barrels per year, would have had an annual cost above the strike price of US$234 million.

“If this had happened then we would have saved US$214 million (net of the option cost of US$20m). So for us to even have broken even on the cost of the option, oil prices would have had to go to US$67.20 per barrel (additional US$20 million based on our usage above the strike price),” PSOJ said.

It noted that the hedge is not a contract for supply at the strike price of US$66, but an option to purchase at that price so the only cost would be the US$20 million fee.

“It is also important to note that the amount applied to pay for the hedge was applied while prices were falling, so it was not an additional cost, which was important as it did not reduce already existing consumption spending,” the private sector group said.

“The fact is that we could ill afford oil moving back to US$80 per barrel, and the cost of US$20 million to mitigate a US$200 million risk, like insurance, makes good business sense,” said the PSOJ.

The Gleaner

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Paulwell says net billing to resume, but solar energy providers still in limbo

February 1, 2016 Webmaster

Energy Minister Phillip Paulwell

ALMOST a year after net billing was suspended, there are indications that the programme is to resume, although Energy Minister Phillip Paulwell is yet to set a timeline.

He said recommendations have been made to the Office of Utilities Regulation (OUR) to resume processing licences. But, before that can happen, the Electricity Lighting Act must be amended and the Jamaica Solar Energy Association (SEA) raised concerns that nothing has been done to have the legislation amended.

At Wednesday’s national conference for the development of an energy services company industry in Jamaica, Paulwell said that the Government is committed to reopening net billing.

He, however, explained that while the law names the Energy Sector Enterprise Team (ESET) as the body responsible for regulating new generation capacity, it was felt that it (net billing) is not appropriately placed at ESET, and that the OUR is expected to resume processing net billing licences.

So far, more than 300 licences have been issued, but solar energy providers have not been able to interconnect to the JPS grid since May of last year.

David Barrett, president of SEA, says the association’s membership is still in a state of confusion.

“It’s static now (the sector) because people have no entity to get a licence from, they don’t know who to go to. Some persons have gone to the OUR or the JPS (Jamaica Public Service company) but they can’t do it because of the obvious reasons,” he told the Jamaica Observer last Thursday.

Over the months, entrepreneurs in the solar energy sector have complained bitterly of suffering millions in losses after the JPS stopped net billing to carry out an assessment of the pilot. The review was completed by the United States’ National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the report made public in June, but all grid interconnection for new net billing projects islandwide have still remained on hold.

Solar energy providers say the prolonged suspension has dealt their outfits a serious blow, arguing, too, that the JPS has too much power over the arrangement and that the Government needs to act decisively on the issue.

Barrett said the members are neither pleased with the pace of the process nor the new conditions that are being established.

“What has been decided is that the cap is to be five megawatts instead of 11 as it would have been in the previous phase, and that the cap for the individual locations will remain as they are. The association is not too happy about that because we feel that there is easy opportunity to increase potential for renewables in Jamaica without disturbing the grid in any way,” he told the Observer earlier this month.

Additionally, Barrett expressed disappointment that the association had not been invited to the table when the new cap was being set. “So we don’t have the information that fed into the decision-making process,” he stated.

Net billing permits JPS customers, who own renewable energy generators, to produce electricity for personal use and to sell excess energy to the light and power monopoly at wholesale prices, which are set by the OUR.

Jamaica Observer

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Jamaica To Do Its Share Of Climate-Change Mitigation

January 28, 2016 Webmaster

Jamaica is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by the equivalent of 1.1 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide per year by 2030, as part of its global commitment to take climate-change mitigation action.

– uses energy wisely and aggressively to pursue opportunities for conservation and efficiency;

– has a modernised and expanded energy infrastructure that enhances energy generation capacity and ensures that energy supplies are safely, reliably and affordably transported to homes, communities and the productive sectors on a sustainable basis; and

– achieves its energy resource potential through the development of renewable energy sources by increasing their share in its primary energy mix of 20 per cent by 2030.

Such policies are also to ensure that government agencies and ministries are a model/leader in energy conservation and environmental stewardship, and that the island has a well-defined and established governance, institutional, legal, and regulatory framework.

The Gleaner

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