barrel Archives - SolarBuzz Jamaica

OPEC Reaches Preliminary Accord To Curb Oil Production

September 30, 2016 Webmaster

Outside view of International Conference Center in Algiers, Algeria, where energy ministers from OPEC and other oil-producing countries are gathered to attend the opening session of the 15th International Energy Forum Ministerial meeting in Algiers, Algeria.

OPEC nations reached a preliminary agreement on Wednesday to curb oil production for the first time since the global financial crisis eight years ago, pushing up prices that had sunken over the past two years and weakened the economies of oil-producing nations.

Mohammed Bin Saleh Al-Sada, Qatar’s energy minister and current president of OPEC, announced the deal after several hours of talks in the Algerian capital. The levels must still be finalised at an OPEC meeting in Vienna in November.

The preliminary deal will limit output from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to between 32.5 million and 33 million barrels per day, he said. Current output is estimated at 33.2 million barrels per day.

Benchmark United States crude jumped US$2.38, or 5.3 per cent, to US$47.05 a barrel in New York. Brent crude, the international standard, was up US$2.72, or 5.9 per cent, to US$48.69 a barrel in London.

Long-running disagreements between regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran had dimmed hopes for a deal at Wednesday’s talks.

Iran had been resistant to cutting production, as it is trying to restore its oil industry since emerging from international sanctions over its nuclear program earlier this year. According to Wednesday’s deal, Iran exceptionally will be allowed to increase production to 3.7 million barrels a day, according to Algerian participants at the meeting. It is currently estimated to be pumping around 3.6 million.

The OPEC officials met informally on the sidelines of an energy conference in Algiers to try to find common ground on how to support oil markets.

POSITIVE DEAL

“We reached a very positive deal,” said Nigerian Oil Minister Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu. He said all countries will reduce output but the specific quotas will be set in Vienna in November.

Earlier, Iranian Petroleum Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh had played down the OPEC gathering, calling it “just a consultation meeting”.

The price of crude oil has fallen sharply since mid-2014, when it was over US$100 a barrel, dropping below US$30 at the start of this year.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil producer and Iran’s rival for power in the Middle East, appeared to be more amenable to some sort of production limit, certainly more so than in April when OPEC failed to agree on measures to curb supplies.

Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih this week promised to “support any decision aimed at stabilising the market”.

Over the past couple of years, OPEC countries, led by Saudi Arabia, had been willing to let the oil price drop as a means of driving some US shale oil and gas producers out of business. Shale oil and gas requires a higher price to break even.

Those lower prices have hurt many oil-producing nations hard, particularly OPEC members Venezuela and Nigeria, but also Russia and Brazil.

Gleaner

Alternative Energy Biodiesel Climate Change Crude Oil Electricity News Oil

World Bank Raises 2016 Oil Price Forecast

April 27, 2016 Webmaster

Amid improving market sentiment and a weakening dollar, the World Bank is raising its 2016 forecast for crude oil prices to $41 per barrel from $37 per barrel in its latest April 2016 Commodity Markets Outlook, as an oversupply in markets is expected to recede.

The crude oil market rebounded from a low of $25 per barrel in mid-January to $40 per barrel in April following production disruptions in Iraq and Nigeria and a decline in non-Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production, mainly US shale.

A proposed production freeze by major producers failed to materialise at a meeting in mid-April, the World Bank said in a release.

“We expect slightly higher prices for energy commodities over the course of the year as markets rebalance after a period of oversupply,” said John Baffes, senior economist and lead author of the April 2016 Commodity Markets Outlook.

“Still, energy prices could fall further if OPEC increases production significantly and non-OPEC production does not fall as fast as expected,” he added.

All main commodity indices tracked by the World Bank are expected to decline in 2016 from the year before due to persistently elevated supplies, and in the case of industrial commodities – which include energy, metals, and agricultural raw materials – weak growth prospects in emerging market and developing economies.

Energy prices, including oil, natural gas and coal, are due to fall 19.3 per cent in 2016 from the previous year, a more gradual drop than the 24.7 per cent slide forecast in January. Non-energy commodities, such as metals and minerals, agriculture and fertilisers, are due to decline 5.1 per cent this year, a downward revision from the 3.7 per cent drop forecast in January, the World Bank said.

COST PROBLEM

According to a March 2016 International Monetary Fund (IMF) working paper titledCaribbean Energy: Macro-related Challenges, the single most important cost problem is the region’s heavy dependence on expensive, imported fossil fuels.

As in the United States, the cost of using petroleum to produce electricity is several times higher than alternative fuels, it said.

Excluding Haiti, biomass represents around 11 per cent of Caribbean energy supply, mostly concentrated in Jamaica, the paper said.

It noted that Jamaica is the second-largest electricity consumer, after Trinidad and Tobago, with aggregate consumption of three billion kilowatt hours in 2012. That represents 32 per cent of total regional electricity consumption, excluding Trinidad and Tobago.

The IMF estimated that the net benefit to Jamaica from a decline in oil prices as a per cent of gross domestic product was four per cent.

Gleaner

Crude Oil Electricity News Oil

Has oil bottomed out?

March 29, 2016 Webmaster

ANGRA DOS REIS, Brazil —Â In this September 22, 2010 file photo, workers stand by the construction of Petrobras oil platforms in the BrasFels shipyard in Angra dos Reis, Brazil. Brazil’s State-run oil company reported on Monday a record quarterly loss due to a large reduction in some of its assets amid lower oil prices.

Energy stocks and energy-related bonds have had a rough ride over the past year and a half after outperforming considerably over the last decade.

The reason for the decline was simple: the sharp decline in oil prices from over US$100 a barrel to just above US$40 currently.

WTI crude, which was at a high of US$96 in June 2014, is currently trading at US$40 a barrel for a 58 per cent drop, while Brent crude which traded as high as US$107.75 in June 2014 fell 62 per cent to be trading around the US$41 level.

The slide began due to significantly increased supply of US oil production, as hydraulic fracturing was able to retrieve oil from previously difficult to get at locations, as a result of improved drilling technologies. The combination of high oil prices and low interest rates, emanating from Central Banks’ accommodative monetary policies, made such projects economically viable. Consequently, US oil production increased 80 per cent from 2008 through 2014, according to one estimate.

Crude oil inventories in storage at Cushing, Oklahoma, the largest storage hub in the US, increased from 20 million barrels in the middle of 2014 to just below 70 million presently. In addition, on the demand side, slower growth in demand from China seemingly played a significant role in prices declining.

Finally, there was quite a bit of feeling that the high price of oil merely reflected trading and speculation, and that the whole situation would unravel at some point as fundamentals declined. In this case, the catalyst was OPEC’s strategy to increase production in an already oversupplied market to protect market share and ultimately force production cuts from non-OPEC sources as the price plunge continued.

Oil prices fell in excess of 30 per cent in 2014, 40 per cent in 2015, and by mid-February 2016 had plunged by a further 30 per cent, trading in the mid-20s, but have since rallied some 50 per cent to around US$40 a barrel currently. So what’s next for oil? While it’s difficult to predict the future, a continued recovery or at least stability in oil prices, should persist as supply and demand dynamics come back into balance.

Oil slumped to a 12-year low this year on protracted excess supply concerns before rising on speculation that stronger demand and falling US output, coupled with talks of a production freeze between OPEC and Russia, would ease the global surplus. Additionally, there’s the potential for supply shocks in the future after energy companies from Chevron Corp to BP Plc cut billions of US dollars in spending amid the price crash, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Support for oil on the demand side should come from the observation that oil demand tends to go up over time. Global demand for oil, according to an economic estimate, increased from 75.9 million barrels per day in 2000 to 94.2 million barrels per day in 2015 and is expected to rise to 95.6 million in 2016.

The IEA recently expressed the view that oil prices had reached their bottom, given recent developments on the supply side of the equation in particular and improving outlook on the demand side.

OPEC also is apparently anticipating average oil prices of US$50.00 for 2016. It has become increasingly apparent that given the difference fracking has made in increasing available supply to the United States, we will not see US$100 a barrel for a long time — perhaps never again as we begin a slow but likely definite transition to cleaner fuels.

As oil prices continue to rise, look out for more lucrative buying opportunities in some still beaten-down energy assets — but as usual be sure to consult with your investment advisor to ensure that your selections are right for you.

Jamaica Observer

Biodiesel Crude Oil Electricity News Oil

Oil Price Appears To Have ‘Bottomed Out’, Says Energy Agency

March 15, 2016 Webmaster

The organisation that represents major oil-consuming nations said Friday that signs of a market that has “bottomed out” are emerging.

US crude prices jumped to a high for the year. Brent crude, used as a global benchmark, hit a high for the year Tuesday and rose one per cent Friday.

Energy companies have been shutting down rigs and laying off thousands of workers as oil prices plunged to around US$30 per barrel, from well over US$100 per barrel just two years ago.

A broad retreat by the energy sector played out again last Friday on both fronts.

The number of oil and natural gas rigs active in the US fell for the 12th consecutive week, according to Baker Hughes on Friday, to 480. That’s the lowest level in decades, and perhaps the fewest since the earliest days of the oil drilling industry.

And Texas driller Anadarko Petroleum Corp. said that it would cut 1,000 workers, 17 per cent of its work force.

The pain at Anadarko and other energy companies may finally be translating into a reduction of a massive and global oversupply of oil, the International Energy Agency said Friday.

OPEC production tumbled by 90,000 barrels a day last month, the IEA said. US production that had surged due to new drilling technology, is expected to fall by almost 530,000 barrels a day this year, according to the IEA.

The Paris organisation, however, said that the recovery in crude prices in recent days from multiyear lows does not mean that there will be a significant and sustained rebound in the short-term. There have been sharp declines in demand, particularly in the United States and China, it said.

China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, is attempting to quell anxiety over a slowing economy and labour unrest. Earlier this month, it cut its growth expectations for the year.

Goldman Sachs said last Friday that production is unlikely to increase in the US until 2017, and that prices could volatile in the next few months.

Analysts with Goldman said that if US drillers ramp up production with any rise in oil prices, “we believe a self-defeating rally in oil prices/equities could result.”

The report buoyed stocks of energy companies last Friday, making the sector the second-best performer on the Standard & Poor’s 500 index.

In the energy markets on Friday, US crude added 66 cents, or 1.7 per cent, to US$38.50 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude, which is used to price international oils, gained 34 cents, or 0.8 per cent, to US$40.39 a barrel and natural gas gained 3.4 cents to US$1.822 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Gleaner

Biodiesel Crude Oil Electricity Government News Oil

Jamaica Stands To Lose If World Bank’s Oil Price Prediction Holds

January 27, 2016 Webmaster

While Jamaica has spent US$20 million (about J$2.3 billion) to hedge against the risk of a sharp increase in oil prices, the World Bank has lowered its forecast for crude oil to US$37 a barrel from US$51 a barrel in its October 2015 predictions.

The bank, in its latest commodity markets outlook, said that oil prices fell by 47 per cent in 2015 and are predicted to decline, on an annual average, by another 27 per cent this year.

If the World Bank’s prediction prevails, it would mean that Jamaica would take a hit, given that its hedging contract, with a strike price averaging US$66.74 per barrel, started in June 2015 and is set to expire in about September this year.

Lower oil prices, as well as the ongoing economic adjustment under Jamaica’s economic support programme with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), have been attributed to the macroeconomic stability which the fund’s executive board reported last month has continued to strengthen.

Those factors have also been credited for the inflation and the current account deficit falling to historical low levels.

In the report released yesterday, the World Bank said the lower forecast for crude oil reflects a number of supply-and-demand factors.

These include sooner-than-anticipated resumption of exports by the Islamic Republic of Iran, greater resilience in United States production due to cost cuts and efficiency gains, a mild winter in the Northern Hemisphere, and weak growth prospects in major emerging market economies, according to the World Bank’s latest quarterly report.

However, from their current lows, a gradual recovery in oil prices is expected over the course of the year, for several reasons.

“First, the sharp oil price drop in early 2016 does not appear fully warranted by fundamental drivers of oil demand and supply, and is likely to partly reverse,” the report said.

“Second, high-cost oil producers are expected to sustain persistent losses and increasingly make production cuts that are likely to outweigh any additional capacity coming to the market. Third, demand is expected to strengthen somewhat with a modest pick-up in global growth,” it added.

The anticipated oil price recovery is forecast to be smaller than the rebounds that followed sharp drops in 2008, 1998, and 1986.

PROSPECT

“Low prices for oil and commodities are likely to be with us for some time,” said John Baffes, senior economist and lead author of the commodities markets outlook. “While we see some prospect for commodity prices to rise slightly over the next two years, significant downside risks remain.”

In the IMF report submitted to the board for the 10th review in December, the Jamaican authorities also observed that despite increased surrendering requirements since the beginning of last year and reduced foreign exchange demand from public enterprises, given lower oil prices, there has not been any trend increase in the central bank’s net foreign exchange purchases. “Indeed, net purchases were negative in September and October 2015,” it added.

When Jamaica purchased hedging contracts from Citibank NA, covering six million barrels of oil imports over a 15-month period, expectations last year were that crude prices may climb back to US$75-US$80 per barrel on the world market.

However, prices have since fallen to just over US$30 a barrel.

The transaction was the Jamaican Government’s first oil-hedging arrangement, resulting from a policy decision to manage the country’s exposure to a predicted spike in oil prices from lows of about US$40 per barrel reached earlier in 2015.

The fall in world prices since 2014 has boosted Jamaica’s balance-of-payments position due to a lowering of the oil import bill – crude imports total nine million barrels per year – even as it threw tax revenue collections off-target due to lower special consumption tax receipts from the state refinery Petrojam.

Jamaica imports about nine million barrels of crude oil per year.

A new Energy Stabilisation and Energy Efficiency Enhancement Fund (ESEF) has been introduced to, among other things, finance the purchase of the hedging instruments.

Legislation and regulations governing the use of the ESEF are expected to be adopted by February this year, ahead of the parliamentary debate for the fiscal year 2016/17 Budget.

The Gleaner