Still recovering from last year
GTM Research Senior Analyst Shyam Mehta provides actionable intelligence for the solar module manufacturing industry.
ERIC WESOFF: APRIL 25, 2013
GTM Research Senior Analyst Shyam Mehta spoke at this week’s Solar Summit in Arizona on solar module manufacturing. Rather than preaching “big ideas [and] grand narratives [that] don’t always give you actionable intelligence,” Mehta tried to provide real-world data points and tried to “start from the ground.”
Here are a few of his points and the accompanying data.
The performance gap between p-type mono-crystalline silicon and multi-crystalline silicon is narrowing
Efficiency gains in conventional multi c-Si have accelerated and the gains have come “without significant increase in capex or material cost,” according to Mehta. Yet mono crystalline still commands a 4 cent to 8 cent per watt premium in sales price. Mehta suggests that the value proposition for p-type mono continues to deteriorate.
P-type might make sense in highly real estate-constrained Japan, but in the long term, Mehta sees n-type mono as a key to maintaining the efficiency advantage of mono. Panasonic, SunPower and Yingli are working on n-type cells.
Are 72-cell modules the future?
Mehta noted that 60-cell modules are the current standard but there are 72-cell, 96-cell, and 128-cell modules available. He said that 72-cell modules have gained significant market share because large modules can reduce balance-of-system costs by up to 7 cents per watt.
The 60-cell modules still have an advantage over larger modules in that they are more rigid, can be carried by one person, and more modules can be fit onto complicated rooftops.
Mehta suggests we will start to see increasing numbers of larger and different sized modules that are “highly segment-specific.”
Will module prices just keep dropping?
Spot pricing for polysilicon, as well as for cells and modules, has actually risen 5 percent to 15 percent this year. Is this an indication of a sustained price increase? Mehta points to some salient data from GTM research — 81 percent of ASP reduction over the last two years has come from margin evaporation and polysilicon. He notes that non-silicon materials such as glass and encapsulants have little cost-reduction potential remaining.
Long
Minister of Science, Technology Energy and Minining, the Hon. Phillip Paulwell.
Mr. Speaker, I rise in support of the motion in this 2013/2014 Budget Debate, truly a critical point for our country, our economy and the well being of our people.
Over the past 15 months, as we negotiated this new crucial IMF Extended Fund Agreement from the ru
WITH electricity rates at an all time high in Jamaica, the domestic solar energy market appears to be gaining momentum.
“The last year has been fantastic, and the reason for that is that finally we are getting more and more of an environment where people see energy prices going up and don’t see anything changing very rapidly,” said Maikel Oerbekke, principal of Renewable Energy Developers (RED), a Montego Bay-based company that develops and implements solar energy projects primarily for commercial clients.
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Icon Renewables proprietor Moses Chybar with a solar dusk to dawn flood light, which can run for up to 12 continuous hours, at the Jamaica Alternative Energy Expo hosted by the US Solar Institute at the Pegasus hotel.
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RED, which specialises in solar photovoltaic (PV) technology from German total system company Schuco, and solar cooling and solar process heating plants from Austrian solar engineering firm SOLID, lists Jamaica Broilers Group and telecommunications giant Digicel among its customers.
Oerbekke, speaking with the Business Observer on Monday at the Jamaica Alternative Energy Expo hosted by the US Solar Institute at the Pegasus hotel, reasoned that locals now more than ever feel “strangled” by the electricity prices of monopoly provider Jamaica Public Service Company (JPS), which recently applied to the Office of Utilities Regulation (OUR) for a 10 per cent increase on reconnection fees.
“People are saying ‘we have our backs against the wall and we need to do something now’,” he said, explaining the growing interest in solar energy as attendees crowded the expo to view and gather information on some of the latest systems.
RED has done more than US$3 million ($297 million) worth of projects in the last nine months, revealed Oerbekke. Its biggest project to date has been the solar PV and solar cooling system it did for Digicel at the telecoms’ new downtown Kingston headquarters, he said.
In anticipation of growing clientele, RED is awaiting approval from the St James Parish Council to construct a 3,000-square-foot showroom and administrative building in Montego Bay that can stock around 1,500 panels.
“So, we will be even more faster and flexible,” said Oerbekke, noting that “A third of the building will be a showroom and the building will be completely powered by solar.”
Indeed, the Jamaican solar market has evolved dramatically over the last decade, said Damian Lyn, the managing director at Alternative Power Sources, one of the pioneers in the industry.
“When we started 10 years ago, we were told the company would not survive; it had just cost too much to install a system,” said Lyn. “But we stuck with it and it has gone strength by strength overtime.”
Lyn, a former president of the Jamaica Solar Energy Association, said a huge drop in solar panel prices over the years has been a major catalyst behind the industry’s boom.
“When we started in business, we were selling at US$7.50 a watt, now we are below US$1.50 a watt,” said Lyn.
Furthermore, Lyn said Jamaicans are way more educated now about solar than they were in the early 2000s.
“They understand the difference between solar water heaters and PV systems etc, and the savings that they can have,” he said.
Jamaica has an abundance of sunshine, an average of 3,000 hours a year in Kingston, although that falls by a quarter in more mountainous parts of the island, which tend to have heavier cloud cover.
Photovoltaic power generation uses solar panels composed of a number of solar cells containing a photovoltaic material. Photovoltaic cells convert sunlight into electrical energy, which is subsequently stored in a bank of batteries.
Rooftop panels, which could last for 25 to 30 years, will now pay for themselves in as low as four years, said Lyn, noting that the pay back for a battery-based system is six to eight years, and four to five years for one that is grid tied. Until recently, the pay-back period was up to 20 years.
Some say that changes to the regulatory framework has also had a positive impact on the uptake of solar power, with solar electric customers now able to offset their costs by selling back to the JPS, following the implementation of net billing last year. Net billing customers are paid the avoided cost of generation for the electricity JPS purchases, as well as up to a 15 per cent premium on that price.
Meanwhile, several organisations and businesses have switched to solar power, including Sandals Resorts International, which announced in November 2011 that it had teamed up with Panasonic to launch the region’s first ecovillage hotels. The company hopes to turn a profit on its investment in seven to eight years, said its CEO, Adam Stewart.
What’s more, GraceKennedy subsidiary Dairy Industries is reportedly going with a 60-kilowatt solar system shortly and Lyn himself is currently installing a 100 kw system for the American International School of Kingston.
Still, the Alternative Power Sources boss said he hopes to see more corporate entities getting involved in solar energy.
“A lot are still sceptical. I think, on the corporate end, they still don’t fully understand the paybacks, while the residential person who feels it more, knows it,” he said.
Against that background, Lyn feels the residential market
Shakuntala Makhijani , Guest Columnist
By Shakuntala Makhijani , Guest Columnist
Last month, electricity regulator, the Office of Utilities Regulation (OUR), released recommendations for Jamaica‘s anticipated electricity wheeling programme.
Electricity wheeling has been proposed in Jamaica as a way to promote distributed power generation, especially from renewable-energy sources.
Under the proposed wheeling programme, a company or individual could generate electricity in one part of the country and pay the grid operator – the Jamaica Public Service Company (JPS) – a fee to transport that power to another location where it will be used.
Because JPS currently has a monopoly on electricity distribution, a company would only be able to send electricity over the grid to be consumed at a location that it also owns. For example, a sugar company that generates electricity at a sugar refinery using bagasse can send excess power to its offices in Kingston to avoid paying high electricity bills there, but cannot sell electricity to another entity.
Several of Jamaica’s large energy consumers are considering participating in the forthcoming wheeling programme to support investments in renewable energy.
Hotel chain Sandals, the Caribbean’s largest poultry producer Jamaica Broilers, and the National Water Commission, the largest single electricity consumer in the country, all have plans to wheel power.
A National Irrigation Commission project using wind energy to power irrigation pumps also wants to participate in the programme.
Only for firm generation capacity
At a recent public consultation, however, OUR officials confirmed that the electricity wheeling programme will be intended only for firm generation capacity – meaning it will exclude variable renewable-energy sources such as solar and wind.
Electricity wheeling provides an opportunity to promote distributed renewable generation, especially at the large commercial or industrial scale (more than 100 kilowatts to several megawatts).
For this reason, Worldwatch has submitted a public comment to OUR recommending, based on our research in renewable energy transition in Jamaica, that the regulator reconsider its exclusion of variable capacity and open the electricity wheeling programme to all renewable-energy sources.
Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller‘s administration has publicly committed to the ambitious goal of 30 per cent renewable energy by 2030. In our view, the Jamaican government has every reason to ensure that Jamaica can meet these targets by allowing all renewable-energy sources to participate in programmes, such as electricity wheeling.
For its own economic development, Jamaica’s Government would be well advised to mandate that the utilities regulation office and the national utility continue and expand ongoing efforts to strengthen Jamaica’s national electricity grid in order to accommodate new, variable renewable generation in accordance with national targets.
In the meantime, however, Jamaica’s electricity generation mix is dominated by diesel and fuel oil – and planned liquefied natural gas capacity – which can be rapidly fired up or down in response to variable renewable generation and changes in electricity demand.
So long as JPS and OUR undertake precautions to address grid congestion, voltage regulation, and other issues associated with distributed generation, Jamaica’s grid should be capable of integrating variable renewable capacity through the wheeling programme.
Commercial and industrial-scale renewable electricity generation is a cost-effective way to meet the Jamaican Government’s renewable energy targets.
Fees should be an incentive
Electricity wheeling should, therefore, include variable-generation capacity in order to promote development of solar and wind-energy technologies at this scale.
For this to be successful, it is critical that regulators assure that fees are reasonable enough to insure that distributed generators will have an incentive to participate in the programme.
Guidance from the regulatory office is also needed to clarify eligibility criteria for a single entity under the wheeling programme. For example, if the Sandals resort chain participates in a wheeling programme, why should it not be allowed to send electricity generated at one resort to another? However, each resort in the Sandals chain is registered as a separate entity, creating uncertainty as to whether such use of the wheeling system would be permitted.
Resolving this issue before electricity wheeling guidelines are finalised will help avoid potential delays and allow ready projects to be implemented on schedule.
As Jamaica’s electricity regulator, it is the responsibility of the utility regulatory office to ensure that the national electricity grid is prepared to accommodate the new renewable electricity capacity – both firm and variable – needed to meet the Government’s 30 per cent target.
Given the high cost of the current petroleum-based electricity system and the country’s strong renewable-energy resources, Jamaica can transition to a secure and reliable renewable-energy system while still reducing electricity costs for consumers.
The Worldwatch Institute is currently finalising a Sustainable Electricity Roadmap for Jamaica that details Jamaica’s abundant renewable energy potential and recommends grid integration and policy solutions for reliably harnessing these resources to help achieve the country’s long-term sustainable energy goals.
Shakuntala Makhijani is a representative of Worldwatch Institute, which is currently working on sustainable energy roadmaps for the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica. mkonold@worldwatch.org business@gleanerjm.com
Aubyn Hill, Financial Gleaner Columnist
THIS WEEK, Blue Energy, a British company, announced that it will build Africa’s largest solar power plant in Ghana. By the time it is completed in 2015, the 155-megawatt facility will be the fourth-largest power plant in the world and is expected to supply 20 per cent of the Ghanaian government’s target of generating 10 per cent of electricity from renewable sources by 2020.
Apart from being the second-largest producer and exporter of cocoa in the world, Ghana is a significant producer of oil and, in March, Tullow Oil of London stated that an oilfield it found off the coast was a major find. Still, Ghana has made it easy for this US$400-million investment in solar energy to go ahead. The Nzema project will be situated on 183-hectares (about 403 acres) of land in western Ghana. The Ghanaian government has given the investor a100-year lease, as well as planning and connection permission to the 161kV West African Power Pool transmission line, which links Ghana to the Ivory Coast, Togo, Benin and Nigeria.
Int’l investors responded swiftly
The CEO of Blue Energy, Chris Dean, speaking to the
The Jamaica Public Service has connected its first official net–billing customer to the grid.
The customer, Gordon Lawrence of a Corporate Area address, was officially commissioned after rigorous preparation and testing of the solar system at his home, supplied and installed by Alternative Power Sources.
Any excess energy from the solar system, not used by Lawrence, will be sold to JPS.
Lawrence was one of 11 JPS customers who received net-billing licences from Minister of Science, Technology, Energy and Mining Phillip Paulwell earlier this year. Net-billing customers will be paid the avoided cost of generation for the electricity JPS purchases, as well as up to a 15 per cent premium on that price.
JPS President and CEO Kelly Tomblin, in commenting on the landmark event, noted that the company was pleased to fulfil its mandate to accommodate customers on the grid, as part of the development of the new energy landscape in the island.
Nothing new
For his part, Lawrence said he was not new to generating his own power supply as he installed his system four years ago.
He said the process of getting on to the JPS grid – from application, to obtaining a licence, to dealing with the Office of Utilities Regulation, JPS, Alternative Power Sources and the government electrical inspector – was relatively smooth.
“The system is superior to that of a standby generator, as the changeover is seamless and silent,” he added. “It is also better than a generator in terms of cost as generators require fuel after purchase of the equipment.”
Lawrence’s current system produces roughly 10 to 15 kWh per day on average, with the surprise being that the so-called winter months from October to February have proven to be the most efficient months in terms of energy output.
JPS project manager for net billing, Volton Campbell, also recognised the advantage of Lawrence’s system.
“Unlike some solar systems that will not operate once there is no sunlight, Mr Lawrence’s system can operate when it’s cloudy, as well as at night,” Campbell said. “This is because his system also has backup batteries which are charged by the solar system.”
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