Enjoying those prices at the pump? You might not want to get used to them. A former top oil executive says the price of gas at the pump could double by the end of the year.

In an interview with CNBC, former Shell Oil President John Hofmeister predicts that U.S. oil could skyrocket from the current levels under $48 a barrel to $80 by this fall, just as consumers are getting used to the windfall from lower gas prices. That would force gas prices to double, from the current $2 to a whopping $4 by next winter.

The reason, he says, is the oil companies are masters of the simple economics of supply and demand.

“The industry is the best in the world at cutting costs when they have to reduce spending. What’s happening is we’re shutting down drilling rigs,” Hofmeister said. “Not completing the wells that have just been drilled. And we’re going to eat off the surplus oil out there probably by mid-year.”

Read MoreFuel is cheaper, so let’s hike gas tax: Former governor

Hofmeister, who ran Shell Oil USA from 2005-08, retired and foundedCitizens for Affordable Energy. The non-profit organization seeks the growth of natural gas as a transportation fuel alternative to oil.

He says U.S. producers have idled 500 rigs over the past four months as oil prices plunged. He says the result of that production slowdown eventually will be felt at the pump. This month, Baker Hughes reported that U.S. drillers had taken a record number of oil rigs out of serviceamid the price slump. Last week alone, oil rig counts tumbled by 55 to 1,366.

Five dollar a gallon gas?

A gas station advertises gasoline for $1.68 a gallon in Dellwood, Mo., Jan. 20, 2015.

Hofmeister predicts gas prices could pass the $3-a-gallon range in September and October. By December and next January, he says, gas prices will be nearing $4 a gallon.

Looking further into the future, the former oil exec sees prices rising to “$5 gasoline in the U.S. as we approach the end of the decade.”

Although the Republican-controlled Senate passed the Keystone XL pipeline this week, Washington observers say President Barack Obama is certain to veto it.

Read MoreSenate passes final Keystone bill: measure faces Obama veto

Hofmeister says the Keystone XL pipeline will have no impact on fuel prices in the near term. And he tells CNBC he doesn’t expect it to pass during Obama’s tenure.

“Whoever is the next president, Democratic or Republican, must look at the needs of the nation 20 to 30 years down the road,” he added.

While still a fossil fuel, natural gas has half of the carbon in the molecule that an oil molecule has, Hofmeister explained. “It’s a reduction in fossil fuel emissions, or carbon emissions, by switching to natural gas.”

Hofmeister sees natural gas being turned into four types of alternative fuels. “You can have ethanol and methanol for passenger cars,” he said. “CNG (compressed natural gas) and LNG (liquefied natural gas) for trucks and trains. Natgas “takes the pressure off oil. And it also ends the need for the U.S. to import oil.”

Hofmeister says that unless the U.S. reduces oil consumption, “we will face inevitable and perpetual volatility in oil, especially as we approach the end of the decade.”

CNBC
On the Money airs on CNBC Sundays at 7:30 pm, or check listings for air times in local markets.

Despite recent hurdles, the Kelly Tomblin-led Jamaica Public Service (JPS) is indicating that it is determined to increase its contribution to the burdened national grid and help stave off threats of power outages in the years ahead.

The light and power company has shrugged off the shock of the Office of Utilities Regulation’s (OUR) disapproval of its request for a rate hike and is moving ahead with plans to erect a 190-megawatt (MW) power plant.

Shedding light on the work of the Electricity Sector Enterprise Team (ESET), chairman Dr Vincent Lawrence told journalists yesterday that his group has its eyes firmly set on the addition of 380MW to the national grid by 2017.

Addressing a press conference at the Office of the Prime Minister, Lawrence revealed that Cabinet on Monday approved the construction of the 190MW power plant along with two others to increase generating capacity to the island by 380MW.

“The JPS has exercised its right of first refusal to replace obsolete generating capacity by the construction and installation of a 190MW gas-fired, co-generation power plant at Old Harbour,” said Lawrence.

He said the JPS had agreed to a power tariff of not more than US12.89 cents to facilitate the construction.

“ESET has recommended and Cabinet has given approval for a letter to the JPS authorising the development of 190MW of generating capacity and the construction of a terminal in Old Harbour,” said Lawrence.

He disclosed that Cabinet also approved the construction of a 140MW gas-fired, co-generation plant by Alpart Venture and another 50MW for Jamalco Venture.

Presenting an update to journalists during a press conference after the submissions were made to Cabinet yesterday, Lawrence said the JPS would also be forging ahead with the upgrading of its Bogue plant, which generates 50MW, which is not factored into the added generating capacity.

For Bogue, Lawrence said the proposal is to convert the feed stock to gas, making the retrofitted power plant a 115MW gas turbine co-generation power plant.

US$15 MILLION REQUIREMENT

Lawrence pointed out that the JPS requires capital expenditure of US$15 million for the conversion of the Bogue power plant to be completed by the end of 2015.

He disclosed that ESET had been forced to delay its due diligence on the Jamalco project because the new majority partner, the Noble Group, is finalising its own analysis of the project in order to decide whether it will be making amendments.

Lawrence said Cabinet also agreed with ESET to subject the existing co-generation proposal on the 50MW of coal-fired generation at Jamalco to further analysis before it provides more definite recommendations on the project.

The new principals of Jamalco have promised that their position will be forthcoming by the end of the month.

Lawrence said ESET has continued with a number of stakeholder consultation meetings and discussions with key players in the electricity market.

These comprise the JPS; the OUR; the bauxite alumina sector (Jamalco and Alpart); the Ministry of Science, Technology, Energy, and Mining; the Inter-American Development Bank; and Independent Power Producers (IPPS).

Lawrence said ESET continued to receive assistance from the World Bank, which has provided expertise in analysing technical and financial submissions from JPS, Alpart, and Jamalco, which are planning to build, own, and operate the proposed power plants.

He said ESET had also conducted assessments of the gas market, including trends, costs, shipping size, among other variables, and has conducted comparative studies of electricity policy and framework across the region.

Among other recommendations approved by Cabinet are the review of the Amended and Restated All-Island Electricity Licence (2014), with the goal of facilitating viability, reliability, and investment in the electricity sector.

gary.spaulding@gleanerjm.com

Jamaica Gleaner

WASHINGTON, DC, USA – Jamaica’s Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller and Energy Minister Phillip Paulwell are among dozens of regional officials currently gathered at the US State Department here for the Caribbean Energy Summit, which is being hosted by United States Vice President Joe Biden.

The Summit, which aims to promote cleaner and more sustainable energy future for the Caribbean, is a key component of the Caribbean Energy Security Initiative announced by Biden in 2014. Apart from the government representatives, the summit also brings together finance, privates sector and civil society leaders for the US, Caribbean, and the international community.

Also present are Caribbean Community Secretary General Irwin LaRocque; Caribbean Development Bank President Warren Smith; Organisation of American States Secretary General Jose Miguel Insulza; President of the Inter-American Development Bank, Luis Alberto Moreno; Alejandro Werner, director of the International Monetary Fund Western Hemisphere Department; World Bank Vice-President for Latin America and the Caribbean, Jorge Familiar; managing director for the Americas of the European External Action Service, Christian Leffler. There are also representatives from United Kingdom, New Zeland and Spain.

The keynote address will come later today from Biden along with Bahamas Prime Minister Perry Christie, and Thomas McLarty III and Frederick Kemp of the Atlantic Council.

Only last Thursday, Jamaica signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the US to support clean energy activities. The MOU, which was signed in Kingston by Paulwell and newly-appointed US Ambassador to Jamaica Luis G Moreno, forms part of climate action plan outlined by US President Barack Obama and is intended to help Jamaica reduce its dependence on fossil fuels to help address the threats of climate change.

Source

Jamaicans to bear US$65m Bogue conversion cost, says JPS

Light and power provider, the Jamaica Public Service Company, yesterday warned that customers could be forced to shoulder more than five times the US$15-million price tag they are already set to underwrite for the conversion upgrade of the Bogue plant in St James.

Consumers will fork out a total of US$15m, through a special fund reflected in their bills, over the next year to pay for the changeover of the plant from diesel oil to gas, this after the Office of Utilities Regulation (OUR) approved a cess for the capital works. However, the total cost of the conversion is expected to be about US$80 million.

“The pipelines, as well as storage facilities, represent an investment by the fuel suppliers, who will be recovering the money they have spent for the infrastructure in the cost of fuel,” John Kistle, the senior vice-president for generation and project development at the JPS, told The Gleaneryesterday.

According to Kistle, it would be erroneous to think consumers would automatically benefit from the cheaper fuel soon, as infrastructure costs would be a significant add-on.

“Some of the things we have heard of late is [that there will be a] very short payback and that is based just on the difference in fuel sources. But it is not a short payback given the significant capital required for these terminals and pipelines and the conversion. This is not a US$15-million conversion; it is more expensive when we consider all of the other infrastructure that needs to be put into the island,” Kistle said.

Kistle said further that there are three critical things need to happen in order to convert Bogue to gas. He said first there needs to be a mechanism to bring gas into a terminal and get it on to land. That, he said, has to be a ship-receiving terminal or some method of transporting gas from the ships into a facility that can discharge the gas in either liquid or gas form to the site. The other steps involve transporting the gas from the terminal at the port where it is likely to be collected, and converting the units to receive the gas.

Meanwhile, the JPS executive said the conversion plan is causing major environmental concerns, with the location for the offloading of gas for the plant being a crucial issue.

The JPS is proposing to offload the gas at the Freeport harbour in the resort town of Montego Bay.

“The location is certainly an issue, and we are quite concerned about the environmental constraints, as well as the safety concerns, when you have to bring gas into an operating terminal where there is a cruise ship operation,” Kistle said.

As far as getting the gas into Bogue is concerned, Kistle said the JPS is currently working with the National Environment and Planning Agency (NEPA) and the Port Authority of Jamaica to find a viable solution.

“The Port Authority of Jamaica has very well-documented rules, so we are looking to work with them to bring gas into that harbour, if we are to use that harbour. We are not sure if we have to go somewhere else yet. The Port Authority of Jamaica has been working with JPS, and there are very clear guidelines on what we need to do,” Kistle said.

He pointed out that the guidelines relate to how long a fuel vessel can sit in harbour to discharge “such that we can offload sufficient fuel to run the facility”.

The senior JPS representative said the determination on the way forward will be based on the fuel storage capacity, either at the harbour or at the site, as well as how often a vessel will be required to fill the storage tank.

“There are a couple of options, and we are working with other authorities to understand which of those is an acceptable option. There are a number of constraints that would affect the type of option that we employ,” he said.

“Primarily, we are working with NEPA to make sure that we understand what their issues are,” Kistle added.

The push to convert Bogue to use a gas-based fuel is part of the Government’s plan to reduce the dependence on oil and lower electricity bills. The JPS said the conversion to gas will also save the country millions of dollars each year in foreign exchange currently spent on importing oil.

JPS said the Bogue conversion project will begin as soon as the necessary due diligence is completed and JPS gets the final approval from the OUR.

Daraine Luton, Senior Staff Reporter

Jamaica Gleaner

 

Our country is fortunate to be located in the tropics with abundant sunshine. However, we failed to utilise the natural free energy available to us.

Now that our country has passed four IMF tests and the macroeconomy is in a better health to attract international lending agencies, it is prudent that the Jamaican Government use all its available resources to negotiate a loan to provide solar energy for residential housing. The programme would be developed in phases. The aim is to get at least 25 per cent residential houses connected within year one.

The Jamaican Government should borrow US$100 million and establish a revolving fund. This programme should be managed by the National Housing Trust (NHT).

Arguably, the NHT is one of the best managed government organisations. This organisation has the requisite resources, infrastructures and locations to execute the programme throughout the country. Using this organisation would reduce the need for a new organisation that would incur additional expenses.

The NHT would be responsible for the following;

Implementation and management of the programme

Managing the funds

Importation of the solar equipment

Installation of the equipment

Collection of monthly payments

Charging a five per cent handling fee

Determining the energy requirement of each house by using the applicant’s last JPS light bill.

Establishing four standard energy solutions based on monthly consumption; 100KW, 200KW, 300KW, and 400KW.

Establishing four standard monthly payment plans of $5,000, $10,000, $15,000 and $20,0000.

Establishing a payment plan for over five years.

Establishing a deposit not exceeding $100,000.

Applicants would be required to do the following;

Make application to the NHT

Make a down payment not exceeding J$100,000.

Make a monthly payment to the NHT.

This initiative would reduce the country’s energy bill, reduce our dependency on foreign oil, and reduce environmental damage. It would also reduce the amount each applicant spends on his monthly energy bill.

JOHN MCINTOSH

Hotel management consultant

jpmcintosh@hotmail.com

US-OWNED BMR Energy aims to secure US$20 million in financing from the International Finance Corporation (IFC) for its multimillion dollar wind farm in St Elizabeth.

“IFC is considering a $20 million loan to BMR Jamaica Wind Limited to support the development of a 34 megawatt (MW) greenfield wind farm in St Elizabeth Parish, Jamaica,” said the private finance arm of the World Bank in a recent disclosure.

The financing from the IFC would include an “A Loan for its own account of up to US$10 million, and a concessional loan as implementing entity of the Canada Climate Change Programme of up to US$10 million”.

The rest of the debt financing needs of the project is slated to come from a long-term senior loan from the Overseas Private Investment Corporation, the IFC stated.

The planned 34 MW wind farm, which costs US$90 million ($9.9 billion), should slash US$500 million in oil imports over 20 years, company documents indicate.

The wind farm will be adjacent to the existing three MW wind farm in Munroe owned by the national power utility, Jamaica Public Service Company (JPS).

The BMR project should begin construction in the fourth quarter of 2014 and commence operations in mid-2015, stated the IFC.

BMR’s main partner includes American Capital Ltd (ACL), a management firm that seeks to invest in fast-growing companies via debt and equity.

Over the last three years ACL committed over US$2 billion in new investments. It recently increased its focus on investments in its American Capital Energy Infrastructure (ACEI) division with investments in Nigeria and Jamaica.

“ACEI partnered with a veteran management team to create BMR Energy LLC (“BMR”), a new energy company focused on developing and investing in power and related energy infrastructure throughout Central America and the Caribbean,” said the ACEI in its latest annual report. “ACEI committed US$25 million to BMR’s first project, which is a 34 MW wind farm in Malvern, St Elizabeth Parish, Jamaica.”

In September 2013, the Office of Utilities Regulation in Jamaica selected BMR to build, own, and operate the wind project.

The project falls under the Government’s drive to generate 20 per cent of the island’s energy from renewable sources by 2030.

Currently eight per cent of the country’s energy comes from renewable sources (including biomass) or three percentage points lower than the target of 11 per cent by 2012, experts indicate.

JMA President Brian Pengelley. – Rudolph Brown/Photographer

Brian Pengelley was on Wednesday re-elected as president of the Jamaica Manufacturers’ Association (JMA) for a fourth and final term, that will remain focused on unresolved issues that dominated debate last year.

On his list: the high cost of energy, the depreciation of the dollar, the impact of crime on the business environment, and tax policy.

“With the cost of energy at 42 US cents per kilowatt hour, we expect that the process of getting the construction of the 381MW plant back on track will be handled as a matter of urgency,” said Pengelley in his acceptance speech.

He said the JMA would assist Jamaica Public Service Company (JPS) in naming any local company that steals electricity, saying “This pilferage of electricity not only hinders Jamaica’s development but puts a strain on our already scarce foreign-exchange reserves.”

JPS estimates that it loses about 17 per cent of electricity supplies to theft; that the stealing of electricity cost the power company about $11 billion last year; and that eradicating theft could cut electricity costs to consumers by up to 15 per cent.

The utility has said that the problem spans residential and business customers, with the latter said to employ more sophisticated bypass mechanisms.

Regarding the value of the Jamaican dollar, Pengelley said while the association notes the benefits of the International Monetary Fund programme in the rebounding competitiveness of local products, continued depreciation will ultimately hurt competitiveness locally and intentionally, since most local manufacturers must import their raw material.

The JMD is now nudging $112 to the USD, but is expected to fall even further to around $120 this year.

“It disrupts the ability of manufacturers to cope and makes it difficult for the majority of the workforce to satisfy basic needs,” the JMA president said.

Others elected alongside Pengelley were deputy president Metry Seaga of Jamaica Fibreglass Products Limited; treasurer Jason Dear of No Brand Chemicals; and eight directors – Mark Chin of AMG Packaging; Howard Mitchell of Corrpak Jamaica; Dennis Valdez of Newport-Fersan; Radcliffe Murray of Caribbean Producers Jamaica; Stafford Hyde of Architectural Windows and Doors Limited; Michelle Smith of Chocolate Dreams; Raymond Miles of Sun Island and Kathryn Silvera of Caribbean Foods.

tameka.gordon@gleanerjm.com

Yesterday, the Jamaica Public Service Company (JPS) signed an agreement to purchase wind energy from BMR Jamaica Wind Limited over a period of 20 years.

Under the terms of the agreement, the JPS also has the option to purchase 20 per cent interest in the project.

BMR Jamaica Wind is investing US$90 million in the project and the JPS says it has supported the venture by providing technical advice and vital wind data, from its own Munro Wind Farm.

According to the JPS, the project is a significant milestone in Jamaica’s energy security and diversification programme, and represents another important step toward reducing the cost of electricity.

Construction of the 34 megawatt wind farm will see 11 turbines being erected near Malvern, St Elizabeth, in proximity to the JPS Munro Wind Farm.

The JPS says the new wind farm is expected to save Jamaica 250,000 to 300,000 barrels of imported oil each year, or up to six million barrels of oil over the 20-year term of the agreement.

The project is also expected to create 90 to 120 new jobs during the construction, phase which begins in August 2014.

Commissioning is scheduled for September next year.

Jamaica Gleaner

With reference to your headline article, ‘Solar power risk’ in The Gleaner Tuesday, June 3, I think that our policy decisions in relation to electricity should be based on long-term considerations, such as the amount of foreign exchange spent on fossil fuels, and the threat of global warming, rather than on return on investments.

My initial observation is that we have failed to capitalise on the opportunities provided by solar energy. Neither Jamaica Public Service (JPS) nor the Office of Utilities Regulation has educated the public on the win-win situation, which is possible with net-billing. More people might be interested in applying for net-billing if the application process were quicker, and the steps involved, detailed instructions for which are given on JPS website, were less onerous. Most people are unaware that you do not need batteries to run a solar system if you have a grid-tie with JPS. In fact, going that route is more environmentally friendly and less expensive, as shown by the calculation below.

BUYING BATTERIES

On the whole, companies selling solar systems encourage purchasers to buy batteries. Their pitch is that you can cut your electricity bills and even get off the grid entirely. They also tell you that JPS pays you only half of what you pay JPS per kWh, which is true, but they don’t tell you that batteries would cost more. Also, most people use more electricity in the summer than in the winter. To get off the grid entirely, one would have to install sufficient panels to supply one’s summer needs, and then one would have excess in the winter. It would be better to be able to send the excess to the grid in the winter and draw from JPS if necessary in the summer.

My calculation is based on a monthly average of 200 kWh being sent to JPS in the day, and drawn from JPS at night. (It does not include the excess amounts being sent or drawn). Nor does it take into account escalating costs. I make the optimistic assumption that a battery bank will last for 10 years.

WITHOUT SOLAR PANELS

200 kWh x J$40 = $8,000 monthly x 12 = $96,000 annually x10 years = $960,000.00

With solar panels and net billing (cost corresponding to half of $40.00)

200 kWh x $20 = $4,000 monthly x 12 = 48,000 annually x 10 years = $480,000.00

Savings: $480,000.00

With batteries, no net-billing, cost would be $0, but cost of 16 batteries at $40,000.00 each with life expectancy 10 years max = $640,000.

In contrast, as Mr John Kistle states, JPS would be faced with the challenge of providing everybody with electricity at peak hours after sunset, or on overcast days. Some of that generating capacity would have to be turned off at peak sunshine hours, thus reducing the return on whatever investment was made in a new power plant. However, solar power would cut down on the amount of fuel needed to run the plant.

Given the importance of the cost of electricity to all of us in Jamaica, perhaps there are some other things we can do. Could there be a consensus, for example, on turning off our fridges during peak hours? Or JPS charging different rates at peak hours?

I think that all stakeholders need to be involved in making these hard decisions.

Jamaica Gleaner;

The cost of energy in the Caribbean is the highest in the world, according to the Caribbean Development Bank, but governments have increasingly been pushing renewable sources of energy, like these solar-powered road on Highway 2000 in Jamaica.

GEORGETOWN, Guyana (CMC) – A senior official of the Barbados-based Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) says the operationalising of the Green Climate Fund (GCF) provides an important opportunity for regional countries to not only adapt to climate change but also to mitigate its effects.

In addition, Selwin Hart, the Climate Change Finance Advisor with the CDB said the fund could also assist the Caribbean move towards renewable energy and energy efficiency.

“The cost of energy in the Caribbean is the highest in the world. This represents a serious strike on competitiveness, economic growth and job creation and the GCF presents a once in a lifetime opportunity for countries to have a stable source to financing to address the vulnerabilities both as it relates to importing fossil fuels as well as the impacts of climate change,” he said.

He said one of the major problems facing Caribbean countries in the past has been the lack of capacity to effectively access and use funds even when they were available.

“Many of the requirements for accessing global funds lie outside of the reach of many of the small capacity-constraint counties of the region. You have to undertake a rigorous examination in terms of fiduciary standards and social and environmental safeguards,” Hart said.

The CDB, as part of its climate resilient strategy, has been assisting countries to build that capacity. However, in some instances it is more feasible for that capacity to be built at a regional level rather than at the level of individual countries.

The bank has also been tasked by Caribbean leaders to lead the resource mobilisation effort and in this regard, the CDB is trying to position itself to serve at a regional financial intermediary.

The GCF will support projects, programmes, policies and other activities in developing countries using thematic funding windows’. It is intended to be the centre piece of efforts to raise climate finance of US$100 billion a year by 2020.

Meanwhile, the GCF for which preparations have been ongoing since 2010, has recently been finalised by its board; marking an end to a long and tedious process and giving the green light for the fund to move forward to mobilise resources.

Executive director at the GCF secretariat, Hela Cheikhrouhou, said that this is an important development which will put in place

a multilateral financing institution that is focused on providing concessional financing to both private and public sector beneficiaries in developing countries.

The Jamaica Observer;