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Turning point for energy security in the Caribbean

May 2, 2016 Webmaster

The wind farm at Wigton, in St Elizabeth

Caribbean countries have quietly started a green revolution and are now leading the way for other small island developing states in the global effort to limit the rise of global temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius. While challenges remain, five months after the historic climate agreement in Paris, they remain committed to saving energy and investing in renewables.

Some may argue that at a time when oil prices are low, there are incentives to slow this effort down. But, on the contrary, this is the time to take advantage of the savings and move further on their ambitious vision for the future. And that is precisely what they hope to do at this week’s US-Caribbean-Central American Energy Summit, hosted by US Vice-President Joe Biden.

The Caribbean finds itself at a turning point. The road ahead won’t be short: despite a substantial push for clean energy, renewables still contribute less than 10 per cent of electricity production in the Caribbean.

Ever since last year’s first summit, commitments have translated into concrete actions from leaders. They have played a major role in promoting clean energy development, energy efficiency and climate resilience throughout the region. With the support of regional and international institutions, such as Caricon and the World Bank, Caribbean countries have started a transition to clean-energy alternatives.

Solar power continues to expand as technology improves and production costs plummet. Wind energy is also growing as production has become more commercially viable and technology can now better manage the unpredictability of wind and solar resources.

Eastern Caribbean countries are breaking down barriers to all renewables and are even actively exploring geothermal energy as a way to power their country in a reliable, clean and cost-effective manner. Exploratory drilling and preparatory work is happening in Dominica, Grenada, Monserrat, St Lucia, St Kitts and Nevis, and St Vincent and the Grenadines.

It is important that these transitions to renewable energy go hand in hand with efforts to improve efficiency and reduce cost. Caribbean governments know the importance of reducing inefficiencies by modernising electricity distribution companies and grid systems, and through simple measures such as making buildings more energy efficient and using high-efficiency air conditioners and LED light bulbs.

This is particularly crucial in the Caribbean, where many countries spend more than five per cent of their income in oil imports but still cannot fully satisfy demand. The uncertainty around the future for oil prices and of concessional oil financing make it even more important for small Caribbean economies to diversify their sources of energy.

Gains in energy efficiency help the private sector develop and become more competitive. Even with current low oil prices, electricity prices around the region average over US$ 0.25 per kWh – about three to four times more than what is paid in the US or other developed countries.

For small, tourism-dependent islands like Barbados, where air conditioning alone accounts for 48 per cent of hotel electricity consumption, continued gains in energy efficiency will help businesses cut costs and make the hotel industry more competitive.

At a time of global economic slowdown, this is a powerful example of how green energy can strengthen budgets, stimulate economies and unleash sustainable growth.

The private sector can also play an important role in developing the energy sector, through public-private partnerships (PPP). In Dominica and St Lucia, the World Bank is working with the government in helping de-risk power generation investments, develop bankable PPP deals and attract qualified private sector developers. In Jamaica, a 36-megawatt wind farm has received US$63 million in funding from the World Bank’s International Finance Corporation and other donors.

Increasingly, small island states are being confronted with extreme weather events and with the rise in sea level, it makes it more and more important to invest in energy resilience to ensure that infrastructure and systems are robust and well protected when natural disasters occur.

Caricom, together with the World Bank Group, the United States and others, have been working on establishing a regional one-stop shop to provide greater access to information on technical resources, streamline financing, and improve coordination and transparency.

At this year’s summit, leaders have an important opportunity to build on the momentum. Progress on this front holds great promise for the region. By transforming into a model of renewable energy, the Caribbean can show the world how to generate green growth that is sustainable and supportive of the poor and vulnerable.

Jorge Familiar is World Bank Vice-President for Latin America and the Caribbean

The Jamaica Observer

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World Bank Raises 2016 Oil Price Forecast

April 27, 2016 Webmaster

Amid improving market sentiment and a weakening dollar, the World Bank is raising its 2016 forecast for crude oil prices to $41 per barrel from $37 per barrel in its latest April 2016 Commodity Markets Outlook, as an oversupply in markets is expected to recede.

The crude oil market rebounded from a low of $25 per barrel in mid-January to $40 per barrel in April following production disruptions in Iraq and Nigeria and a decline in non-Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production, mainly US shale.

A proposed production freeze by major producers failed to materialise at a meeting in mid-April, the World Bank said in a release.

“We expect slightly higher prices for energy commodities over the course of the year as markets rebalance after a period of oversupply,” said John Baffes, senior economist and lead author of the April 2016 Commodity Markets Outlook.

“Still, energy prices could fall further if OPEC increases production significantly and non-OPEC production does not fall as fast as expected,” he added.

All main commodity indices tracked by the World Bank are expected to decline in 2016 from the year before due to persistently elevated supplies, and in the case of industrial commodities – which include energy, metals, and agricultural raw materials – weak growth prospects in emerging market and developing economies.

Energy prices, including oil, natural gas and coal, are due to fall 19.3 per cent in 2016 from the previous year, a more gradual drop than the 24.7 per cent slide forecast in January. Non-energy commodities, such as metals and minerals, agriculture and fertilisers, are due to decline 5.1 per cent this year, a downward revision from the 3.7 per cent drop forecast in January, the World Bank said.

COST PROBLEM

According to a March 2016 International Monetary Fund (IMF) working paper titledCaribbean Energy: Macro-related Challenges, the single most important cost problem is the region’s heavy dependence on expensive, imported fossil fuels.

As in the United States, the cost of using petroleum to produce electricity is several times higher than alternative fuels, it said.

Excluding Haiti, biomass represents around 11 per cent of Caribbean energy supply, mostly concentrated in Jamaica, the paper said.

It noted that Jamaica is the second-largest electricity consumer, after Trinidad and Tobago, with aggregate consumption of three billion kilowatt hours in 2012. That represents 32 per cent of total regional electricity consumption, excluding Trinidad and Tobago.

The IMF estimated that the net benefit to Jamaica from a decline in oil prices as a per cent of gross domestic product was four per cent.

Gleaner

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Trinidad Confronting Major Shock From Fall In Oil Prices — IMF

March 21, 2016 Webmaster

Trinidad & Tobago is confronting a major shock with the sharp fall in energy prices that accelerated early this year.

In a statement following the conclusion of a mission from the International Monetary Fund earlier this year, head of the IMF mission Elie Canetti said that based on available information, including that of job losses and continued supply-side constraints in the energy sector, Trinidad’s economy is expected to contract one per cent this year.

The mission also said that declines in energy-based revenues will constrain the government’s ability to act as an engine of growth.

Still: “With substantial financial buffers and low, albeit rising levels of public debt, Trinidad and Tobago is not in a crisis. Nonetheless, in recent years, taking into account the size of energy revenue windfalls, the country has under-saved and underinvested in its future,” the IMF said.

“As a consequence, the imbalances that are now starting to build up could lead the country to uncomfortable levels of debt and external financial cushions absent further action. The new Government agrees that policy adjustments are needed.”

The fund noted that in the half-year since they took office, the Keith Rowley-led administration has already taken “some difficult but necessary steps”, such as widening the value tax base, cutting fuel subsidies, and cutting the number of ministries.

BUDGET DEFICIT

Despite these measures, the IMF said it projects a 2016 Budget deficit at some 11 per cent of GDP. However, if asset sales were to be counted as revenue rather than financing, the deficit would be equivalent to about five per cent of GDP, it said.

“Continued projected deficits of this size call for further fiscal consolidation, perhaps of around 6 per cent of GDP over the next few years,” said the multilateral agency.

Trinidad has agreed to conduct a wide-ranging expenditure review, and will seek the assistance of the World Bank to rationalise and reverse the unsustainable increases in spending on transfers and subsidies over the last several years.

“We support the Government’s intent to conduct a national dialogue on fuel subsidies with a view to phasing them out over time,” said the fund. “The country’s external situation has been very challenging. Against a backdrop of foreign exchange shortages that have intensified since the beginning of 2015, the recent sharp falls in energy prices are further reducing the available supply.”

During the recent visit, the mission met with government officials, banks, and private-sector representatives to assess the foreign exchange market. The fund noted that the current shortage appears to be driven by business uncertainty but also speculative trades.

“While it is appropriate that the central bank paused in its interest rate hiking cycle in January, there is little scope, as the bank agrees, to cut interest rates, at least until shortages of foreign exchange are ameliorated,” the IMF said.

Gleaner

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PIOJ spearheading $829.3-m climate change data management project

March 16, 2016 Webmaster

Planning Institute of Jamaica Deputy Director General in charge of Sustainable Development and Social Planning Claire Bernard (left) in discussion with Evan Thompson, head of the Meteorological Service’s Weather Branch, during the launch of the Improving Climate Data and Information Management Project at the Terra Nova All-Suite Hotel in St Andrew.

JAMAICA’S efforts to strengthen resilience against climate change are being assisted through implementation of the $829.3-million (US$6.8 million) Improving Climate Data and Information Management Project (ICDIMP).

The project, which comprises phase two of the Pilot Programme for Climate Resilience (PPCR II), is being rolled out by the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ), with grant support from the World Bank through the Climate Investment Fund.

It is one of five projects under Jamaica’s Strategic Programme for Climate Resilience, and aims to improve the quality of data collected and used by public and private sector stakeholders at the local and national levels.

It involves climate resilient planning and hydromet information services development at a cost of approximately $168.3 million (US$1.38 million); a climate change public education and awareness campaign, targeting behavioural change at a cost of $88.4 million (US$725,000); and project management and evaluation to cost approximately $82.9 million (US$680,000).

One of the primary beneficiaries is the Meteorological Service of Jamaica (Met Service), which is slated to receive a new Doppler weather radar at a cost of approximately J$487.8 million (US$4 million).

The new radar, which is expected to be acquired during the 2016/17 fiscal year, will replace the existing equipment at the Met Cooper’s Hill, St Andrew, division which the agency has utilised for the past 16 years.

The support also includes renovation of the office, training of officers, as well as programmes focusing on quality assurance.

The Met Service Division, the Water Resources Authority (WRA), and the Rural Agricultural Development Authority (RADA) will also benefit from a number of other provisions.

These include 26 all-weather stations; 25 automatic recording rain gauges; 14 soil moisture probes; 11 groundwater loggers; eight agrometeorological stations; and one sea level tide monitoring station.

Head of the Met Service’s Weather Branch, Evan Thompson, welcomes the initiative, describing it as “an exciting moment for us” and, by extension, “all (of) our partner agencies”.

He notes that the division is poised for increased capacity “to deliver on many of our objectives in addressing resilience to climate change”.

“By the end of this project, in a matter of just five years, we would have seen improvements in our monitoring… (and) forecasting of hydro-meteorological and agrometeorological events,” Thompson says.

“We would be contributing more effectively to hurricane predictions, flash flood forecasting, modelling of scenarios due to the impact of climate change, as well as national development through greater and more efficient access to climatological data,” he adds.

He notes that there will also be significant investment in expanding the land and marine data gathering network to ensure that data collected are properly processed and managed, so that all sectoral interests will benefit from development programmes undertaken.

Thompson anticipates that the ICDIMP will build on collaborations with agencies such as WRA and RADA in enabling farmers to benefit from increased use of technology in agri-planning, and increase the number of weather data collecting platforms over eastern Jamaica.

“The (ICDIMP) is expected to take these…projects to the next level, building on the existing platforms and taking seriously the matter of climate change, which threatens to destabilise life as we have known it,” he notes.

In expressing confidence that the ICDIMP “will be another successful project”, Thompson assures that “we are prepared to stay the course to ensure that success”.

“We are mindful of the hard work that is ahead, and we look forward to following through with this project to completion so that the even more exciting phase of reaping the benefits takes place over the next five years,” he adds.

PIOJ Director General Colin Bullock, in welcoming the ICDIMP, says there is broad, multi-sectoral stakeholder acknowledgement that “our climate must be more deliberately factored into our economic analysis and planning”.

He says natural disasters cause disruption of lives and livelihoods, with losses at between one and two per cent of Gross Domestic Product.

“Having timely and good quality data can help to improve decision-making, not only at the national level, but also at the household and community levels,” Bullock states.

In noting that the project’s primary objective is advancing Jamaica’s transformation to a climate-resilient economy and society, the director general says it is consistent with the national strategy of climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction, as outlined in Outcome 14 of the Vision 2030 Jamaica — National Development Plan.

“The wide scale availability of data and information through the climate information platform being developed will put easily digestible information at the fingertips of end users such as households, farmers, and the wider public, while the public education component should foster behaviour modification,” the director general notes.

Bullock says the PIOJ is committed to the project’s implementation, “and looks forward to working with (our partners) in meeting (its) development objective”.

World Bank Representative in Jamaica, Galina Sotirova, notes that climate change and its impact are “critical issues” which “disproportionately threaten” small island developing states like Jamaica.

These impacts, she points out, “are projected to get progressively more severe within a decade,” unless intervention measures are taken immediately.

Sotirova notes that climate change directly affects 60 per cent of Jamaica’s population who reside in coastal communities, rendering them “most vulnerable”.

It is for this reason, she says, that the World Bank and the Government of Jamaica agreed on a four-year Country Partnership Strategy in 2013, which identified priority areas of cooperation.

“Climate change, not surprisingly, emerged as a significant part of the conversation in the preparation period, and figures very prominently in one of the pillars of the four-year strategy, which focuses on social and climate resilience,” she states.

In pointing out that Jamaica “has always been a leader in the Caribbean,” she says the World Bank anticipates that the ICDIMP’s implementation will have a “welcome ripple effect throughout the region, as countries…are grappling and are trying to develop their strategies to secure sustainable economic growth”.

For her part, the PIOJ’s deputy director general in charge of sustainable development and social planning, Claire Bernard, describes the ICDIMP as a “multidimensional” and “potentially… transformational” project…pointing out that “there…is something in this project for everyone in Jamaica”.

Other partners in and beneficiary stakeholders of the ICDIMP include: the Ministry of Health; Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management; Climate Studies Group at the University of the West Indies, Mona Campus, in St Andrew; as well as the Climate Change and National Spatial Planning Management Divisions

Jamaica Observer

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Jamaica Stands To Lose If World Bank’s Oil Price Prediction Holds

January 27, 2016 Webmaster

While Jamaica has spent US$20 million (about J$2.3 billion) to hedge against the risk of a sharp increase in oil prices, the World Bank has lowered its forecast for crude oil to US$37 a barrel from US$51 a barrel in its October 2015 predictions.

The bank, in its latest commodity markets outlook, said that oil prices fell by 47 per cent in 2015 and are predicted to decline, on an annual average, by another 27 per cent this year.

If the World Bank’s prediction prevails, it would mean that Jamaica would take a hit, given that its hedging contract, with a strike price averaging US$66.74 per barrel, started in June 2015 and is set to expire in about September this year.

Lower oil prices, as well as the ongoing economic adjustment under Jamaica’s economic support programme with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), have been attributed to the macroeconomic stability which the fund’s executive board reported last month has continued to strengthen.

Those factors have also been credited for the inflation and the current account deficit falling to historical low levels.

In the report released yesterday, the World Bank said the lower forecast for crude oil reflects a number of supply-and-demand factors.

These include sooner-than-anticipated resumption of exports by the Islamic Republic of Iran, greater resilience in United States production due to cost cuts and efficiency gains, a mild winter in the Northern Hemisphere, and weak growth prospects in major emerging market economies, according to the World Bank’s latest quarterly report.

However, from their current lows, a gradual recovery in oil prices is expected over the course of the year, for several reasons.

“First, the sharp oil price drop in early 2016 does not appear fully warranted by fundamental drivers of oil demand and supply, and is likely to partly reverse,” the report said.

“Second, high-cost oil producers are expected to sustain persistent losses and increasingly make production cuts that are likely to outweigh any additional capacity coming to the market. Third, demand is expected to strengthen somewhat with a modest pick-up in global growth,” it added.

The anticipated oil price recovery is forecast to be smaller than the rebounds that followed sharp drops in 2008, 1998, and 1986.

PROSPECT

“Low prices for oil and commodities are likely to be with us for some time,” said John Baffes, senior economist and lead author of the commodities markets outlook. “While we see some prospect for commodity prices to rise slightly over the next two years, significant downside risks remain.”

In the IMF report submitted to the board for the 10th review in December, the Jamaican authorities also observed that despite increased surrendering requirements since the beginning of last year and reduced foreign exchange demand from public enterprises, given lower oil prices, there has not been any trend increase in the central bank’s net foreign exchange purchases. “Indeed, net purchases were negative in September and October 2015,” it added.

When Jamaica purchased hedging contracts from Citibank NA, covering six million barrels of oil imports over a 15-month period, expectations last year were that crude prices may climb back to US$75-US$80 per barrel on the world market.

However, prices have since fallen to just over US$30 a barrel.

The transaction was the Jamaican Government’s first oil-hedging arrangement, resulting from a policy decision to manage the country’s exposure to a predicted spike in oil prices from lows of about US$40 per barrel reached earlier in 2015.

The fall in world prices since 2014 has boosted Jamaica’s balance-of-payments position due to a lowering of the oil import bill – crude imports total nine million barrels per year – even as it threw tax revenue collections off-target due to lower special consumption tax receipts from the state refinery Petrojam.

Jamaica imports about nine million barrels of crude oil per year.

A new Energy Stabilisation and Energy Efficiency Enhancement Fund (ESEF) has been introduced to, among other things, finance the purchase of the hedging instruments.

Legislation and regulations governing the use of the ESEF are expected to be adopted by February this year, ahead of the parliamentary debate for the fiscal year 2016/17 Budget.

The Gleaner

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New wind farm seeks US$20m from IFC

July 2, 2014 Webmaster

US-OWNED BMR Energy aims to secure US$20 million in financing from the International Finance Corporation (IFC) for its multimillion dollar wind farm in St Elizabeth.

“IFC is considering a $20 million loan to BMR Jamaica Wind Limited to support the development of a 34 megawatt (MW) greenfield wind farm in St Elizabeth Parish, Jamaica,” said the private finance arm of the World Bank in a recent disclosure.

The financing from the IFC would include an “A Loan for its own account of up to US$10 million, and a concessional loan as implementing entity of the Canada Climate Change Programme of up to US$10 million”.

The rest of the debt financing needs of the project is slated to come from a long-term senior loan from the Overseas Private Investment Corporation, the IFC stated.

The planned 34 MW wind farm, which costs US$90 million ($9.9 billion), should slash US$500 million in oil imports over 20 years, company documents indicate.

The wind farm will be adjacent to the existing three MW wind farm in Munroe owned by the national power utility, Jamaica Public Service Company (JPS).

The BMR project should begin construction in the fourth quarter of 2014 and commence operations in mid-2015, stated the IFC.

BMR’s main partner includes American Capital Ltd (ACL), a management firm that seeks to invest in fast-growing companies via debt and equity.

Over the last three years ACL committed over US$2 billion in new investments. It recently increased its focus on investments in its American Capital Energy Infrastructure (ACEI) division with investments in Nigeria and Jamaica.

“ACEI partnered with a veteran management team to create BMR Energy LLC (“BMR”), a new energy company focused on developing and investing in power and related energy infrastructure throughout Central America and the Caribbean,” said the ACEI in its latest annual report. “ACEI committed US$25 million to BMR’s first project, which is a 34 MW wind farm in Malvern, St Elizabeth Parish, Jamaica.”

In September 2013, the Office of Utilities Regulation in Jamaica selected BMR to build, own, and operate the wind project.

The project falls under the Government’s drive to generate 20 per cent of the island’s energy from renewable sources by 2030.

Currently eight per cent of the country’s energy comes from renewable sources (including biomass) or three percentage points lower than the target of 11 per cent by 2012, experts indicate.

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Jamaica Gets Assurance From Venezuela Regarding PetroCaribe

September 10, 2013 jrobinson

Minister of Science, Technology, Energy and Mining, Phillip Paulwell, delivering the keynote address at the official opening of the Falmouth Youth Empowerment Computer Access Centre, in Trelawny, on July 25. – JIS Photo

Jamaica says it has been given an assurance by Venezuela that there would be no changes to the existing PetroCaribe agreement for the duration of its four-year programme with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Energy Minister Phillip Paulwell met with Venezuela officials in Haiti during the 11th meeting of the PetroCaribe Council of Ministers.

“We put to the government of Venezuela the fact we do have an IMF agreement with certain strictures, and that during the life of this agreement we have to ensure that we do not have any difficulties with other arrangements, and the life of the agreement does go through until 2017.

“So we have put to the Venezuelan government that there be no changes to the arrangement within the PetroCaribe and they have assured us as such,” Paulwell said.

Jamaica was one of the original signatories to the 2005 PetroCaribe initiative, under which Caracas provides oil and energy products to several Caribbean countries that are allowed a deferred financing mechanism, through which a percentage of the costs is made available to their governments as a long-term concessionary loan.

Last month, Caracas also gave the assurance that there would be no increase in interest rates.

In May 2013, the IMF approved Jamaica’s application for a four-year extended fund facility.

The agreement unlocked more than US$2 billion of loan support, including those from the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank.

Under the IMF agreement, PetroCaribe remains a critical funding arrangement for the Jamaican Government and Paulwell also disclosed that trade compensation mechanism must be fast-tracked and a major announcement would be made this week concerning a new arrangement for Jamaica to clear its PetroCaribe debts to Venezuela.

“We are also pleased that they have decided to fast-track the trade compensation mechanism that will allow us to trade our goods and services in lieu of payment of the debt in foreign currency,” said Paulwell.

“On Wednesday of this week, we have a very important announcement to make in relation to a hot commodity that will be traded,” he said.

Jamaica Gleaner;

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Struggling Businesses To Get Help, Productivity Centre To Intervene

June 7, 2013 Webmaster

The Labour Ministry is to intensify its efforts to help businesses facing challenges to remain productive and

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Grenada Moving To Liberalise Electricitysector – Attempts To Reduce Light Bills

April 25, 2013 jrobinson

Grenada is hoping to rely on wind turbines such as these at a section of the Wigton Windfarm in Manchester, for generation of electricity. – File

Grenada says it will use funds provided by the World Bank to facilitate the liberalisation of its electricity sector as part of an initiative being undertaken by other countries within the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS).

Public Utilities Minister Gregory Bowen told Parliament that EC$1.4 million from the World Bank would be used to facilitate the process.

“I want to assure the nation that a steering committee will be formulated and become active in ensuring we work with the other countries for the liberalisation of the electricity sector,” Bowen said.

He added that initial indications are that once the system remains the same a reduction in electricity rates will not be realised.

ALTERNATIVE ENERGY

Bowen said the wind turbine project in Carriacou will be pursued as an alternative source of energy in Grenada.

“This is a over three million euros grant to Grenada, though the Grenada Electricity Services Company (GRENLEC) is putting some funding into it. But we want to ensure that the lease does not go to the detriment of Grenada, Carriacou and Petite Martinique,” Bowen told legislators.

In his budget presentation last month, Prime Minister Dr Keith Mitchell said his administration would seek to expedite the implementation of a wind-energy project in Carriacou, which is a partnership involving the European Union and GRENLEC.

He said that by using wind turbines the project will meet about 60 per cent of Carriacou’s electricity needs.

“Government is strongly committed to the increased use of renewable energy in Grenada. In this regard, private investment is essential and will be pursued as a major priority,” Mitchell added.

CMC

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Government To Pursue Multimillion Dollar Hydropower Project

April 2, 2013 Webmaster

Energy minister Phillip Paulwell

Energy minister Phillip Paulwell has announced that his ministry will be partnering with the Petroleum Corporation of Jamaica (PCJ) to undertake a $109 million feasibility project at five potential hydropower sites.

The work is being carried out as part of the Energy Security and Efficiency Enhancement Project, which is being funded through a 2011 loan agreement between the Government and the World Bank.

Under the agreement the World Bank has provided US$15 million to finance initiatives to increase Jamaica‘s energy efficiency and improve energy security.

Of this amount, $2.5 million has been allocated to the implementation of the hydro project.

The sites selected to participate in the project are the Rio Cobre River in St. Catherine, Morgan and Negro rivers in St. Thomas, Martha Brae River in Trelawny and Spanish River in Portland.

Paulwell has described the project as significant to his Ministry’s larger plan to develop Jamaica’s renewable energy industry.

The project will be carried out by SP Studio Pietrangeli, an Italian consulting engineering services firm.

Work is scheduled to continue until August 2014.

The Government has committed to having renewable sources supplying at least 20 per cent of Jamaica’s energy supply by 2030.

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