If the Peru and Mexico auctions are any indication, Latin American markets are establishing a new, and very low, normal for solar prices. Peru recently awarded a solar power purchase agreement (PPA) at $47.98/MWh to Enel Green Power (EGP), making headlines as the lowest PPA on record. But just weeks later, EGP beat its own a record in Mexico’s auction with a PPA price of $35.44/MWh for solar PV, and an average price for all awardees of $50.77/MWh for wind and solar.
What’s pushing these prices down, and how long will it last? Developers are likely making a few key assumptions:
1) Commodity prices are falling — 80 per cent since 2008, according to data from IRENA — and are expected to continue dropping, so modules will be cheaper;
2) Energy Performance Certificate costs are likely to fall as renewable energy penetration increases throughout the region; and
3) The quality of resources is very good in these markets, increasing the effectiveness of solar technologies so developers can get more bang for their buck.
While solar costs are indeed falling, it’s the jaw-droppingly low price bids by EGP that are making headlines. They are building massive installations, much larger than in the past, and economies of scale are helping to push down the prices. Access to funds at highly competitive rates from organisations such as the European Investment Bank has also enabled EGP to bid aggressively.
“Our prices were the most competitive but in line with those submitted by other international operators taking part in the auction,” said Carlo Zorzoli, EGP’s head of Latin America.
EGP has won 1,172 megawatts of solar PV in Latin America in 2016 alone. That, in itself, is noteworthy; perhaps more noteworthy is that they believe they can build profitable projects across a portfolio of tightly priced PPAs.
It’s hard, and perhaps not even desirable, for other developers to compete with EGP’s low bids, but there are other players in these markets bidding at or very near to Enel’s winning prices. Companies eager to make a footprint in the market are coming in at or below cost, according to industry analysts, potentially with internal rates of return in the single digits – a reality they are willing to face to gain a strong foothold in these young markets with enormous potential.
A favourable regulatory environment will continue to be vital in attracting serious developers and maintaining low prices. Peru’s regulator, Osinergmin, required very high bid bonds for their RFP — $50,000/MW — and tied the PPA price to the US dollar, which could prevent results similar to the frenzied bids and current situation in Brazil.
Mexico also allowed developers to bid in pesos indexed to the US dollar, which offered more economic certainty.
Peru’s next request for proposal is couple of years off, but Mexico has one coming up in August, and many expect to see even lower prices.
However, when it comes to other Latin American markets, while prices may be relatively low, they aren’t expected to break records, particularly in Argentina where many unknown factors loom. Broadly, however, the theme is clear: Latin America is opening up, competition is fierce and — at least as far as pricing is concerned — it’s a race to the bottom.