Private Sector Organisation of Jamaica Archives

Millions More! – Parliament To Be Asked To Approve New Oil Hedge

October 21, 2016 Webmaster

Governor of the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) Brian Wynter and Financial Secretary Everton McFarlane have come out defending the costly ‘insurance’ Jamaica has taken out against oil prices as the expiration date nears and a new one is being prepared for Parliament’s approval.

Hedging is an investment position used to reduce substantial losses that could be incurred based on actual or perceived fluctuating developments.

Last year June, Jamaica entered an arrangement with Citibank, which covers the period from June 2015 to December 2016, and for which the bank has been paid approximately J$3.3 billion (US$27.9 million) in premiums. The arrangement involved three contracts.

Under the arrangement, Jamaica would get a payout if oil prices exceed US$66 per barrel. Up to yesterday, the West Texas Intermediate crude rate used under the hedge put the latest oil prices at US$51.60 per barrel.

McFarlane told Parliament’s Public Administration and Appropriations Committee (PAAC) yesterday that the Parliament would be approached to approve funds to extend the hedge as no provision was made in the 2016-2017 National Budget, approved in May.

“In the coming Supplementary Estimates, we are looking to find the resources so that we’re covered a longer period of time,” he said. He added in a Gleaner interview later that “the details as to the period to be covered and the level of coverage are to be finalised in short order.”

He said the resources would come from budgetary reallocations.

NUMBER OF BARRELS DECLINING

The BOJ Governor also noted that with just two months to go under the last contract, the number of barrels has been declining.

“We’re not covering the full monthly amount now. This is the tail end of what was being hedged over a year ago. It’s a little under 200,000 barrels per month, whereas when you’re covering (fully), you’d be up there at about 700,000 or 800,000 barrels per month,” he said.

Concerns had been raised that because prices have remained low, Jamaica was losing millions under what some critics held was an unnecessary hedge.

PAAC member Franklyn Witter, using similar concerns, questioned whether the risks that gave rise to the hedge still existed.

“You have a projection over the medium term for oil to remain within $52 per barrel, so given that projection, why do you think it would be important to continue with the hedge?”

McFarlane responded that the risks still existed and that “Jamaica’s interest in continuing the hedge is based on the loss of foreign exchange that can entail or the budgetary loss that may arise in the event of significantly higher prices”.

Wynter, meanwhile, noted that investors have questioned how Jamaica would cope when oil prices increase even if other risks are low.

“There are several different answers to give. One answer is to build the Net International Reserves up by an extra billion so that we have it sitting down. The other extreme is to pay the $20 million or $30 million, still a lot of money, which, if nothing happens, you lose the premium, but if that event occurs, you get the payout that someone else has to have to pay you.

“We do look at what makes more sense,” he added. “Accumulating reserves is good for all sorts [of] reasons, but it’s also costly. So what we’ve done is try to strike the balance.”

The hedge has been funded by a special consumption tax on fuel.

The Private Sector Organisation of Jamaica has supported it.

No date has been given for the tabling of a supplementary budget, which the Finance Minister Audley Shaw has indicated will be coming.

In January, while on opposition benches, Shaw said the administration may have been ill-advised in pursuing the hedge.

Gleaner

Crude Oil Electricity JPS LNG

Light bills to go up this month

June 14, 2016 Webmaster

JAMAICA Public Service (JPS) customers will be asked to pay more for their electricity this month — partly due to the recent increase in the Special Consumption tax (SCT) on heavy fuel oil (HFO), the light and power company advised yesterday.

The company said the spike is also due to an increase in the cost of the fuel used for electricity generation, caused by rising oil prices on the international market, and the continued devaluation of the Jamaican dollar.

“This is definitely not the best news for us at JPS, or for our customers,” JPS President and CEO Kelly Tomblin said in a release.

The Government last month introduced the $7 per litre increase as part of the revenue package to help finance its $580-billion 2015/16 Budget, but Finance Minister Audley Shaw, at the time, assured the panicking public that the tax would only apply to fuel at the pumps.

“This tax doesn’t apply to JPS at all. It is only related to SCT for fuel for road transport,” Shaw said at a post-budget press conference. The SCT is expected to yield $6.4 billion for the Government’s coffers.

In announcing the 12.8 per cent increase yesterday, the JPS urged consumers to “conserve on their electricity usage, as the upward trend in oil prices has resulted in an increase in the cost of electricity”.

“The overall increase will result in residential customers paying US$0.21 per kWh on average for electricity in June, compared to US$0.19 in May. This means that the average residential customer using 165kWh of electricity for the month, will see a $500 increase in his or her June bill, which will move from $3,875 in May to approximately $4,372 this month,” the JPS said.

The JPS president stressed that, despite the increase, electricity bills are still 20 per cent lower than they were in June 2015 when customers were paying US0.27 per kWh. The company argued that Jamaica continues to enjoy one of the lowest electricity rates in the region, behind Belize and Trinidad.

Reacting to the news, Private Sector Organisation of Jamaica (PSOJ) President William Mahfood reiterated that the sector had recognised from the outset that the imposition of the tax on the HFO and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) would have an incremental increase in the cost of electricity of five per cent.

“As far as the price of oil goes, this is a matter that is beyond our control (but) we still feel there should be some amount of hedge put in place to mitigate against future increases in the price of oil,” he remarked, noting that the sector is in full support of the phasing out of older power plants which rely on HFO and diesel.

He said that, while the phasing out of JPS’ 190-megawatt facility at Old Harbour will take a couple more years, eventually more plants will convert to LNG.

Mahfood said also that, like rising oil prices, the devaluation of the dollar against the US currency is out of Jamaica’s hands and can only be militated against by economic growth.

The Observer

Crude Oil Electricity Government News Oil

PSOJ Backs Oil Hedge Strategy

February 3, 2016 Webmaster

The Private Sector Organisation of Jamaica (PSOJ) says it is in the country’s best interest to further hedge against the upward movement in the price of oil, a strategy the Government first adopted in June last year.

The hedge purchased by Jamaica last year at a strike price of US$66 has come in for criticism because oil prices are currently falling, and analysts are predicting further decreases this year.

However, PSOJ president William Mahfood said if the world crude prices remain low for an extended period, the options to buy will also be reduced and gives Jamaica an opportunity to hedge at concomitantly lower prices.

“We feel strongly that if the strike prices are attractive and if prices are maintained at these lower levels that it is in the country’s best interest to buy that insurance policy going forward,” Mahfood told Wednesday Business.

Asked if the PSOJ would encourage the Government to negotiate any differently in entering into such contracts, Mahfood, while noting that “it’s really a function of time, and it’s a question of volatility,” emphasised that “if oil prices remain low for an extended period of time, what you will find is that the option prices will come down, and if those prices come down further, it will definitely be in the country’s interest for us to hedge further”.

While some projections are for prices to fall to US$20, Mahfood said that no one knows exactly where they will end up.

“The best analysts in the world will tell you that the oil price might be a US$53 in December or it might be at US$100.”

He said the PSOJ feels strongly about maintaining some sort of stability in terms of the prices, given what the impact the lower costs have had on the economy in terms of energy which has, for example, resulted in lower electricity bills for both households and manufacturers.

In a release on Monday, the PSOJ said it has taken note of commentary on the oil hedge strategy Jamaica effected last year by purchasing options to buy eight million barrels of oil, representing about half the country’s annual requirement, at a price of US$66 per barrel.

The total cost of the option, which became effective in June 2015 and expires September this year, was approximately US$20 million.

One argument, the PSOJ said, was that the hedge was a waste of money as oil prices have fallen to US$30 per barrel, and the strike price, where Jamaica would have started to benefit, is US$66 per barrel.

The PSOJ noted that projections last year were for oil prices to recover in 2016 with most expecting it to go past US$66 per barrel and settling at around US$80 per barrel, which at 17 million barrels per year, would have had an annual cost above the strike price of US$234 million.

“If this had happened then we would have saved US$214 million (net of the option cost of US$20m). So for us to even have broken even on the cost of the option, oil prices would have had to go to US$67.20 per barrel (additional US$20 million based on our usage above the strike price),” PSOJ said.

It noted that the hedge is not a contract for supply at the strike price of US$66, but an option to purchase at that price so the only cost would be the US$20 million fee.

“It is also important to note that the amount applied to pay for the hedge was applied while prices were falling, so it was not an additional cost, which was important as it did not reduce already existing consumption spending,” the private sector group said.

“The fact is that we could ill afford oil moving back to US$80 per barrel, and the cost of US$20 million to mitigate a US$200 million risk, like insurance, makes good business sense,” said the PSOJ.

The Gleaner