THE average Jamaican, while being aware of worsening beach erosion, hotter temperatures and an increased mosquito population, does not necessarily know that excessive amounts of green-house gases belched into the air by industrial processes is at the root of the problem. Neither does he know how to address it.

For that reason, the Government has declared November 28 – December 3 Climate Change Awareness Week and plans to engage policymakers, business leaders, academia, the media, young people and the wider public through a series of events.

“Climate Change Awareness Week is designed to build awareness about climate change and its impacts,” chief technical director in the Ministry of Economic Growth and Job Creation Lt Col Oral Khan told the Jamaica Observer on Monday.

“The climate is changing already and will continue to change and if we’re not prepared the effects will be disastrous for us,” he added.

The slate of activities for the week includes a journalism training workshop, a two-day workshop for the scientific coomunity at the University of the West Indies Regional Headquarters, a meeting with members of the Youth Environmental Advocacy Programme (YEAP) and high school students from across the country, a session with permanent secretaries, and a two-day Climate Smart Expo at Emancipation Park on December 2-3.

The week coincides with a regional outreach visit to Jamaica by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) intended to:

1. Raise awareness in the region about the IPCC, its role, activities and workplan for the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6);

2. Present the outcome of the Fifth Assessment Report AR5 and demonstrate how climate change is affecting the region;

3. Enlist the participation of the local science and research community in climate research and encourage regional participation in AR6; and

4. Foster a better understanding among the news media about climate science, solutions to climate change and the IPCC process.

Khan, as well as project administrator and senior climate negotiator in the Climate Change Division Clifford Mahlung — who was part of Jamaica’s delegation to COP22 in Marrakech over the last two weeks; founder of the Climate Studies Group at the University of the West Indies, Mona, nobel laureate and professor emeritus Anthony Chen; physicist Dr Tannecia Stephenson; and managing director of Environmental Solutions Limited Eleanor Jones were guests of the newspaper at its weekly Monday Exchange

Jamaica Observer

In this August 2016 photo, New Fortress Energy (NFE) hosts a tour of its Montego Bay terminal. Walking the port are (from left) Brendan McElmurray of NFE, Minister without Portfolio in the Ministry of Economic Growth and Job Creation Dr Horace Chang, Attorney General and Member of Parliament for West Central St James, Marlene Malahoo Forte, Ed Marsh of the Port Authority of Jamaica, Johnathan Klion of NFE, and chairman of the Montego Bay Free Zone, Mark Hart.

The plan to build and operate a liquefied natural gas marine terminal and pipeline by American company New Fortress Energy (NFE) will place the facility five kilometres offshore within the Portland Bight area or close to the Goat Islands, according to the environmental impact assessment (EIA) released this month.

New Fortress will execute the marine terminal and pipeline project through affiliate NFE South Holdings Limited. A public consultation on the project is set for September 28 in Old Harbour.

The environmental report done by CL Environmental Consultants Limited on behalf of New Fortress also estimates that the project will provide nearly US$1 billion worth of value over its lifetime and create about 300 direct jobs in the process. Indirect jobs are estimated at 200 to 600.

“Based on this analysis, the final net present value of the project, after application of social cost benefit analysis, turns out to be US$953.4 million. Hence, the project should be undertaken as it has multiple social benefits which are reflected in the final positive NPV of the project,” the report stated.

In arriving at that final figure, the EIA considered the financial profitability measured at market prices; the net benefit of the project measured in terms of economic prices; then adjusted for the impact of the project on savings and investment, income distribution, the impact of the project on merit goods and demerit goods, and the environmental impact.

LNG plan

The project forms part of the wider plan to bring LNG to the national grid. The marine terminal will feed gas to the new 190MW plant that Jamaica Public Service Company is developing at Old Harbour. New Fortress is also supplying gas to JPS’ Bogue plant from a terminal developed in Montego Bay.

The marine terminal EIA report reasoned that consumers, but in particular the manufacturing sector, would benefit from the lower cost of electricity and the establishment of a more reliable power supply.

“This will lead to more possibility of manufacturing that will lead to creation of employment opportunities for unskilled and skilled workers. This is hard to quantify and hence the number are not adjusted for it. Which means that the social benefit stayed below is a lower bound,” the report stated.

The NFE project involves constructing a marine terminal comprising of a vessel berth and offshore offloading and regasification platform.

“The location will be up for approval by the Port Authority of Jamaica in the Portland Bight area of Jamaica,” said the environmental report.

It adds that the facility will accommodate a floating storage unit or FSU vessel for LNG storage and a LNG carrier delivering gas to the FSU. The platform would contain equipment to regasify LNG as well as related process and safety equipment.

“The liquid gas from the FSU would be carefully regasified and the gas would then be released into an undersea pipeline which will be mostly directionally drilled in basically a straight line from the platform to the vicinity of the JPS plant,” stated the EIA, which adds that the pipeline, at some five kilometres in length, would connect to the JPS gas power plant on shore.

“In addition, the project will construct a new, or refurbish an existing, automotive diesel oil line from storage tanks to the renovated power plant in order to enhance the reliability of the facility in case of LNG delivery interruptions.”

The marine terminal will be constructed offshore in the western side of Portland Bight, at a distance about 200 metres from the shipping channel to Port Esquivel in approximately 14 metre of water depth. “This location offers sufficient depth to berth the FSU and the LNG carrier vessels without the need for dredging, yet has sufficient protection from storm wave impacts as a result of the shape of the Bight,” stated the report.

Energy Policy

NFE is expected to supply JPS as well as potential future industrial users with natural gas. The main objective is to provide the Jamaica Public Service Company’s Old Harbour Plant with a cleaner and more cost-effective fuel in furtherance of the goals of the National Energy Policy.

NFE will conduct the project through its NFE South Holding and with the sponsorship of Fortress Investment Group, a global asset management firm with approximately US$70.64 billion of assets under management and an experienced investor in transportation, infrastructure and energy assets around the world, the environmental report said.

The annual fuel savings from the project is projected at US$74.2 million which represents a 38 per cent reduction in cost. The report adds that, assuming a 75 per cent pass-through to the consumer and a 25 per cent mixed of the generating capacity of the JPS, it will result in a seven per cent reduction is consumer prices. This figure matches the fuel savings published in a separate EIA report on the JPS Old Harbour plant upgrade released in April, as the projects are complementary.

JPS, which has a licence from the Jamaican Government to operate the national electricity grid, is constructing the 190MW plant adjacent to its existing Old Harbour facility in St Catherine, which has the capacity to generate 220MW of power. The current plant will be dismantled once the new one is commissioned.

Gleaner

Holness                                                                      Ricardo Makyn

 

Washington, DC:

Prime Minister Andrew Holness is optimistic that Jamaica will become the hub for gas in the Caribbean and promises that his government will be strategic in its efforts to diversify the country’s energy sector.

“Renewables will have to feature in a far greater way in our energy mix. The falling oil prices give us a window of opportunity to bring in new technology, to bring in new investors,” he said yesterday during an interview with Jamaican journalists at the US Caribbean Central American Energy Summit in Washington, DC. The summit was held at the Department of State.

“The emphasis (will be) on diversification in ensuring that we are the hub that will reduce our exposure to volatility,” he said.

Holness, along with other regional leaders, met with United States Vice President Joseph Biden yesterday morning for a Caribbean Heads of Delegation meeting. He said the exchange has given him some insight into how other countries in the region are using alternative energy for their electricity, water, and transportation sectors.

“I think we will have to look more closely at our transportation sector, particularly the JUTC (Jamaican Urban Transit Company), which are fairly heavy users of oil and heavy fuel, to see how best we can get energy efficiency from diversifying their fuel use,” he said.

 

BURDEN FOR JAMAICA

 

The prime minister noted that energy has been a burden for Jamaica for many years, but he believes that several initiatives implemented by Biden and US President Barack Obama over the years have contributed to finding solutions to the problem. Obama reinforced his administration’s commitment to assist the region with exploring clean-energy solutions when he launched the Task Force on US Caribbean and Central American Energy Security during his visit to Jamaica in April 2015. Just a few months prior to the launch of the task force, Biden hosted the first US Caribbean Central American Energy Summit.

The US has provided clean-energy finance for countries such as Jamaica through the Overseas Private Investment Corporation and the USAID. The US-owned BMR Energy is also currently building a 34-megawatt greenfield wind farm in St Elizabeth valued at US$90 million.

“What we have said at these seminars is that Jamaica is open for investments in the energy sector,” said Holness.

The prime minister said discussions with Biden went very well as they reviewed progress made in the local energy sector last year and discussed plans for this year. He noted that there are some imperatives that the Jamaican population would have to become aware of such as the strong global movement towards clean energy.

“What is clear is that there is great appreciation for what we have done as it relates to our regulations, making it attractive for investments in the energy sector to come to Jamaica,” he said.

nadine.wilson-harris@gleanerjm.com

 

 

The Gleaner

While Jamaica has spent US$20 million (about J$2.3 billion) to hedge against the risk of a sharp increase in oil prices, the World Bank has lowered its forecast for crude oil to US$37 a barrel from US$51 a barrel in its October 2015 predictions.

The bank, in its latest commodity markets outlook, said that oil prices fell by 47 per cent in 2015 and are predicted to decline, on an annual average, by another 27 per cent this year.

If the World Bank’s prediction prevails, it would mean that Jamaica would take a hit, given that its hedging contract, with a strike price averaging US$66.74 per barrel, started in June 2015 and is set to expire in about September this year.

Lower oil prices, as well as the ongoing economic adjustment under Jamaica’s economic support programme with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), have been attributed to the macroeconomic stability which the fund’s executive board reported last month has continued to strengthen.

Those factors have also been credited for the inflation and the current account deficit falling to historical low levels.

In the report released yesterday, the World Bank said the lower forecast for crude oil reflects a number of supply-and-demand factors.

These include sooner-than-anticipated resumption of exports by the Islamic Republic of Iran, greater resilience in United States production due to cost cuts and efficiency gains, a mild winter in the Northern Hemisphere, and weak growth prospects in major emerging market economies, according to the World Bank’s latest quarterly report.

However, from their current lows, a gradual recovery in oil prices is expected over the course of the year, for several reasons.

“First, the sharp oil price drop in early 2016 does not appear fully warranted by fundamental drivers of oil demand and supply, and is likely to partly reverse,” the report said.

“Second, high-cost oil producers are expected to sustain persistent losses and increasingly make production cuts that are likely to outweigh any additional capacity coming to the market. Third, demand is expected to strengthen somewhat with a modest pick-up in global growth,” it added.

The anticipated oil price recovery is forecast to be smaller than the rebounds that followed sharp drops in 2008, 1998, and 1986.

PROSPECT

“Low prices for oil and commodities are likely to be with us for some time,” said John Baffes, senior economist and lead author of the commodities markets outlook. “While we see some prospect for commodity prices to rise slightly over the next two years, significant downside risks remain.”

In the IMF report submitted to the board for the 10th review in December, the Jamaican authorities also observed that despite increased surrendering requirements since the beginning of last year and reduced foreign exchange demand from public enterprises, given lower oil prices, there has not been any trend increase in the central bank’s net foreign exchange purchases. “Indeed, net purchases were negative in September and October 2015,” it added.

When Jamaica purchased hedging contracts from Citibank NA, covering six million barrels of oil imports over a 15-month period, expectations last year were that crude prices may climb back to US$75-US$80 per barrel on the world market.

However, prices have since fallen to just over US$30 a barrel.

The transaction was the Jamaican Government’s first oil-hedging arrangement, resulting from a policy decision to manage the country’s exposure to a predicted spike in oil prices from lows of about US$40 per barrel reached earlier in 2015.

The fall in world prices since 2014 has boosted Jamaica’s balance-of-payments position due to a lowering of the oil import bill – crude imports total nine million barrels per year – even as it threw tax revenue collections off-target due to lower special consumption tax receipts from the state refinery Petrojam.

Jamaica imports about nine million barrels of crude oil per year.

A new Energy Stabilisation and Energy Efficiency Enhancement Fund (ESEF) has been introduced to, among other things, finance the purchase of the hedging instruments.

Legislation and regulations governing the use of the ESEF are expected to be adopted by February this year, ahead of the parliamentary debate for the fiscal year 2016/17 Budget.

The Gleaner

 

Our country is fortunate to be located in the tropics with abundant sunshine. However, we failed to utilise the natural free energy available to us.

Now that our country has passed four IMF tests and the macroeconomy is in a better health to attract international lending agencies, it is prudent that the Jamaican Government use all its available resources to negotiate a loan to provide solar energy for residential housing. The programme would be developed in phases. The aim is to get at least 25 per cent residential houses connected within year one.

The Jamaican Government should borrow US$100 million and establish a revolving fund. This programme should be managed by the National Housing Trust (NHT).

Arguably, the NHT is one of the best managed government organisations. This organisation has the requisite resources, infrastructures and locations to execute the programme throughout the country. Using this organisation would reduce the need for a new organisation that would incur additional expenses.

The NHT would be responsible for the following;

Implementation and management of the programme

Managing the funds

Importation of the solar equipment

Installation of the equipment

Collection of monthly payments

Charging a five per cent handling fee

Determining the energy requirement of each house by using the applicant’s last JPS light bill.

Establishing four standard energy solutions based on monthly consumption; 100KW, 200KW, 300KW, and 400KW.

Establishing four standard monthly payment plans of $5,000, $10,000, $15,000 and $20,0000.

Establishing a payment plan for over five years.

Establishing a deposit not exceeding $100,000.

Applicants would be required to do the following;

Make application to the NHT

Make a down payment not exceeding J$100,000.

Make a monthly payment to the NHT.

This initiative would reduce the country’s energy bill, reduce our dependency on foreign oil, and reduce environmental damage. It would also reduce the amount each applicant spends on his monthly energy bill.

JOHN MCINTOSH

Hotel management consultant

jpmcintosh@hotmail.com