As LNG partner New Fortress Energy begins shipment of liquefied natural gas to the island, power distributor Jamaica Public Service Company (JPSCo) is indicating that savings will depend on pricing, which varies from month to month.
Chief Financial Officer of the Jamaica Public Service Company (JPSCo) Dan Theoc told the Jamaica Observer: “The cost of LNG at Bogue is likely to be cheaper than the cost of oil next month (September) when Bogue is expected to come on line.”
But, based on current price differentials and the fact that Bogue will only represent approximately 12 to 15 per cent of the generation mix, it is expected that total savings — based on this price differential – will be marginal (less than five per cent), all other things remaining equal, Theoc told the Business Observer.
Spot prices for LNG on the Henry Hub (HH) index registered US$2.82 per million Btu in July after starting the year at US$2.28 in January and falling to US$1.73 in March.
Crude, on the West Texas Intermediate index, started the year at US$30.32 per barrel and crested at US$44.65 in July.
“Unfortunately, we cannot say definitively what the impact of natural gas will be in the future because of the volatility in oil prices relative to natural gas prices,” Theoc said.
JPS will be buying natural gas from Fortress under a 20-year exclusive gas supply agreement and they will be responsible for all of the supply chain logistics and infrastructure costs.
That includes the mode of delivery to the island, the frequency of delivery, the storage of the LNG, the regasification and the distribution by pipeline to the property.
Theoc noted, “We will pay for gas based on the Henry Hub Index plus an agreed margin (which we cannot disclose), similar to how we buy fuel today from Petrojam based on the US Gulf Average Mean Index plus an agreed margin.”
In general, he added, “It is worth noting that the HH index in the past five years has been far less volatile compared to Oil-based Indices (like US Gulf, WTI and Brent Crude), so we view the move to HH as being a plus for price stability.”
It is expected that Bogue will actually make up 12 to 15 per cent of the generation mix on natural gas and that when the 190MW plant in Old Harbour comes on line in 2018, approximately 40 per cent of our generation mix will be based on gas-fired power plants.
In general, it is expected that renewables penetration will increase from five per cent in 2015 to 12 per cent by 2018.
The consequence, Theoc said, will be an improvement in fuel diversity from a situation where 95 per cent of production was oil-fired last year to a situation where less than 50 per cent is fired by oil.
The CFO said the pending award of a gas project to Jamalco will also potentially increase the percentage of generation units which are fired by natural gas by about ten per cent to further replace oil-fired units by 2019.
