Carlton Davis, Contributor

While all eyes will be turned on Dr Peter Phillips on May 24 on how he composes the Jamaican Budget to achieve, in addition to economic growth and the protection of the vulnerable, meaningful fiscal targets that will not dissatisfy the Washington Consensus and the markets, we must not lose sight of the single most important factor which has plagued the Jamaican economy for close to 40 years: energy.

As I have written and spoken about on a number of occasions, cheap oil was a significant factor in the appreciable economic growth we achieved in the 1950s and 1960s, and expensive oil has been a significant factor in our anaemic growth performance for most of the period since then.

I don’t know how many people are aware that oil was so cheap that in the 1960s, we examined with Mitsubishi, and separately with Kaiser Aluminum, the building of an aluminium smelter in Jamaica. A smelter of the size contemplated required some 200 megawatts of electricity, about one-third of our current average domestic use. However, the quadrupling of oil prices in late 1973 put paid to this.

Skyrocketing prices

We have seen stupendous rises in oil prices, since the beginning of the latter half of the last decade with devastating consequences all round, but particularly the alumina sector, which has seen two plants closed for three years (the loss of production from which is equivalent to US$650 million in gross export earnings!) and the other two barely holding on for dear life.

The rather adverse effects on the domestic home consumer and the Jamaican economy can be illustrated. The average householder uses about 170 kilowatts of electricity per month. At US$0.40 per kilowatt-hour, this is equivalent to US$68 per month, or US$816 per year. If we calculate the cost on the basis of 500,000 such consumers, this represents a spend of US$408 million annually!

Were the price to be lowered to US$0.25 per kilowatt-hour, as is being touted for the new generating unit (Note that as this would represent only 60 per cent of the entire system in the first instance, the average price would be higher), this would translate into increased disposable income to consumers of about US$150 million, which would be a stimulant to the Jamaican economy in the purchase of local goods and services rather than most of it on imported oil.

Important objectives

In light of the foregoing, we have to strive to achieve four important objectives:

1. Replace oil with coal or natural gas, which are both cheaper now and expected to be so over the long term, for the electricity-generating and alumina sectors;

2. Get the country to conserve on its use of energy, regardless of the fuel;

3. Exploit local renewables and wastes in the production of energy to the maximum extent possible and feasible;

4. Rebalance the ratios between the use of public and private transport as a means of reducing our use of gasolene, which is far more expensive than the fuels used by the electricity and alumina sectors.

I consider assisting the prime minister and her relevant portfolio ministers in achieving these objectives as perhaps the most important of my current tasks.

Carlton Davis is special adviser in the Office of the Prime Minister. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com

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The corporate headquarters of Jamaica Public Service Company Limited, Knutsford Boulevard, New Kingston. - File

 

Monopoly electricity distributor Jamaica Public Service Company (JPS) has slashed US$21.3 million (J$1.85b) from the value of its land assets.

JPS’ first land revaluation in four years decreased the value of its landholdings and buildings by 28.8 per cent, from US$73.9 million in 2010 to US$52.6 million.

“Please note, as a part of ongoing operations and prudent business practice, JPS has its lands valued every three years. Prior to 2011, the last valuation was done in 2008,” said Winsome Callum, head of corporate communications at JPS, in correspondence with

REMARKS IN Parliament on Tuesday by the energy minister, Phillip Paulwell, suggest that the Simpson Miller administration may have begun to grasp that flawed policies need not be pursued merely because they were declared.

In this case, the government seems willing to rethink its promise of a blanket removal of the general consumption tax (GCT) on electricity that it made in the heat of the campaign for last December’s general election.

That promise by Portia Simpson Miller was, understandably, popular, helping to win her People’s National Party the government and propel her to prime ministership. For, on the face of it, many thousands of Jamaicans would be freed of the 10 per cent tax on their electricity bills that was imposed by the previous administration.

The fact, though, is that it was largely a mirage – as the figures quoted by Mr Paulwell on Tuesday would have forced him to realise – were it not the case before.

Important points

The Jamaica Public Service, the light and power company, has, Mr Paulwell reported, 492,560 residential consumers. Of this number, 377,495, or 77 per cent, use less than 200 kilowatt-hours of electricity monthly – the benchmark at which consumers enjoy a price ‘subsidy’ on their power bills. Consumers at this threshold do not currently pay GCT.

There is a differential between the minister’s figures and slightly higher ones quoted by the Private Sector Working Group (PSWG) in its tax-reform proposals that offered an alternative to the government’s plan. Both, however, underline three important points.

First, from the political point of view, the constituency of poor voters that Mrs Simpson Miller most wanted to reach when she made the promise was already exempt from the GCT. Second, the removal of the tax would give a break mostly to well-to-do people who can afford to pay. Third, blanket removal of the GCT is also removing an incentive to conserve.

The PSWG had alternatively suggested keeping the GCT in place, but raising it to 12.5 per cent in line with the rate it proposes for all goods and services. It would, at the same time, raise the charge for the consumption threshold for GCT to 300 kWh, freeing more than 20,000 additional electricity consumers from the tax.

Neutral effect

The concept and the underlying implication of these numbers have apparently not been lost on Mr Paulwell and his Cabinet colleagues. He pointed out that raising the GCT-free threshold to 250 kWh, or 300 kWh, would benefit 10 per cent, and 16 per cent more electricity users. It would, at the same time, cost between $113 million and $136 million in revenue.

Minister Paulwell appears to be concerned about the impact on small businesses. But the GCT is an input-output tax, so compliant businesses could claim against their payments. The effect, therefore, would be neutral – except in the case of those businesses that are either not registered or compliant.

It can’t be the objective of government to reward people who do not play by the rules, or promote economic disorder. Moreover, as Mr Paulwell indicated, the cash-strapped government collected over $1.6 billion in GCT payments on electricity in the last fiscal year. That is not to be disregarded.

The opinions on this page, except for the above, do not necessarily reflect the views of The Gleaner. To respond to a Gleaner editorial, email us: editor@gleanerjm.com or fax: 922-6223. Responses should be no longer than 400 words. Not all responses will be published.

 

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